Specter of Islamic Terrorism
Over the last two years, as US–backed security forces of Iraq on one hand, and Syrian forces loyal to their President Bashar Al-Assad with the support of Russian military, have been squeezing the territory of the Islamic State (aka Daesh) in the Arabic peninsula comprising the erstwhile territories of Iraq and Syria.
But Daesh is not the only Islamic terrorist organization that has to be fought and defeated. The other older partners in the business of Islamic terrorist activities are Al-Qaeda and the Taliban; and while Al-Qaeda is out of the lime-light after the death of its founder Osama Bin Laden, it is now slowing resurging in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Al-Qaeda is thinking in long term strategy and building alliances. It‟s keeping its activities under-the-radar and its intensions secret, making it difficult to track down its operatives and assess the threat that it poses. Al- Qaeda may have decided in this present time to focus on regional issues inside Afghanistan and help the Taliban on the ground; but that does not mean that they can be discounted as a threat for any future attacks they might be plotting abroad; especially against the United States. Read More
Deterrence against a rogue state
Conventional deterrence models from Thomas Schelling (1966) to Frank Zagare (2004), including Robert Axelrod, Robert Jervis are primarily applicable to conventional warfare. Where as in multipolar world Richardsonion model finds its application. Classical deterrence theory emphasizes on, proportionality, reciprocity, coercive capability and rationality. Whether one is nuclear optimist or pessimist, it has worked a long way.
The tremendous gap in the theory and practice that globe faces today, is due to the changing nature of warfare in light of the emergence of rogue states and terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Read More
India’s Coastal Security: Perspectives, Challenges and Prospects
India has 7,516 kilometer long coastline which includes 5,422 kilometers of coastline in mainland and 2,094 kilometers of coastline bordering around 1382 islands. The peninsular coastline of India is shaped by Bay of Bengal in east, Indian Ocean in south and Arabian Sea in west and is spread over nine states and four union territories, namely, Gujarat, Daman and Diu, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal. There are two island groups: Lakshadweep and Minicoy in Arabian Sea and Andaman and Nicobar in Bay of Bengal (Annual Report 2011-2012, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, 2012). Read More
China’s Great Wall of National Security Stonewalls Pakistan’s Terrorists
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang were amongst the first few global leaders to express condolences to the bereaved families of the deadly terrorist attack in Christchurch, New Zealand on March 14. However, turning the calendar back to 30 days, the Chinese leadership exhibited a more muted response. On February 14, when at least 44 Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel lost their lives to a Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (SVBIED) attack in Pulwama, the Chinese Embassy reserved among the last to skimpily tweet Chinese Foreign Minister’s statement. Read More
Trump Era – Balancing and Bandwagoning in the Indo – Pacific region
The forces that shape international alliances are among the most important in international politics. The belief that, states form alliances in order to prevent stronger power from dominating them lies at the heart of traditional balance of power theory.1 States joins alliances to protect themselves from states or collation‟s whose superior resources could pose a threat.2 States will also be tempted to Bandwagon when alliances are not avaible.3
More recently, „Balance of Threat‟ theory is purposed as a refinement of traditional „Balance of power‟ theory. Balance of threat theory explains choices of alliances when states potential allies are roughly equal in power. Read More
