The West Asia sits at the strategic centre of the global geopolitics and therefore, geopolitical changes and shifts in any parts of globe find reflection in the region and the vice versa. The region has assumed utmost strategic importance in the US policy in the post-World War II period with its Cold war strategy, Presidential Doctrines, its security commitments to Israel and its elaborate network of military bases and 5th Fleet in Bahrain and CENCOM forward base at Al Udeid base in the outskirt of Doha. However, the last decade has witnessed gradual reduction of US interests and perceptible drawdown owing to its strategic shift to the Asia-Pacific. The trend has gained momentum, producing numerous ripples of adjustment among its allies in the region and expansion of influence its geopolitical competitor. The scenario was clearer after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, August 2021. The momentum has further speeded up in the wake of Ukraine crisis which finds manifestation with the responses of the countries of the region to the crisis particularly by the US allies. The strategy of global powers towards the region in consonance with their changing national interests namely the US, China, Russia and India are also witnessing considerable changes. A probing analysis of the developments and actions of the powers in the region would provide a clear view of the evolving geopolitical patterns and its possible trajectory into the future. The central intent of the paper is to analyze the US moves, strategies and responses to have an American order in this strategic region, an essential element to retain its global primacy in the emerging World Order.
Recent US Initiative for a new order in West Asia
The US withdrawal from the region is underway for a decade now which has gained momentum with its strategic shift to the Indo-Pacific, the focused priority at the moment. It has led the US to a creation of a US-led order in the region with the strategic cooperation of its Arab allies with Israel, a credible security framework against the security threat from Iran in the region. The Abraham Accord was the outcome of such strategic thinking. [1] The vision bears resemblance to the Nixon Doctrine’ of 1969 in its strategic intents and contents when President Richard Nixon announced that United States would thereafter support allies facing military threats with economic and military aid rather than with troops on the ground.
The Israel for obvious reason had been kept under the European Command (EUCOM). In the wake changing geopolitical context, Israel has now been shifted to the CENTCOM which covers all the Arab allies of the region. On 1st September 2021, Israel eventually realigned into the CENTCOM, which said in its statement that it “strengthens the strategic US-Israel defense relationships and offers opportunities to deepen operational collaboration between the Israel defense forces and CENTCOM’s other partners in the region. CENTCOM will now work to implement the US government commitment to a holistic approach to regional security and collaboration with our regional partners.” [2]
The Secretary State, Antony J Blinken spoke to the Foreign Ministers of Israel, UAE and India on 18th October 2021 and discussed about expanding economic and political cooperation in the Middle East and Asia, combating climatic change, energy cooperation and increasing maritime security. Besides, the Secretary reiterated Biden Administration’s support for Abraham Accord and normalization Agreements and discussed future opportunities for collaboration in the region and globally. [3] At the first Summit Meeting of the I2U2 (India, Israel, US and UAE) which focused mainly economic aspect, energy security, infrastructure and food security, the joint statement emphasised that “We reaffirm our support for the Abraham Accords and other peace and normalization arrangements with Israel.” [4] The summit was said to be a meeting of strategic partners in true sense, emphasized to remain engaged and connected to build out the scope of the groupings. Such a vision points to the framework of the US order in the region in the years to come with cooperative partnership of the US allies in the region. [5]
The three close allies of the US in the region, Egypt, Israel and UAE hold their summit meeting on 22nd March 2022, to navigate and cooperate in the wake of the changing geopolitical landscape in the region which has drifted into an uncharted track with the Ukraine crisis. This is the emerging sign of shifting political realignment in the region in consonance with the Abraham Accord vision of US security order in the region [6]. The three-way, Egypt-Israel-UAE Summit meeting and the Abraham Accord FMs meeting in Israel which is at work to weave an Arab-Israel security alliance in the region with US support is sure to face tremendous security challenge from Iran. The Nagev Summit was a concerted effort to consolidate the gains made by the Abraham Accord and coalesce the Arab Israeli normalization and its expansion to deal with their common challenge from Iran and limit the influence of Russia and China in the region. [7] The summit was attended by the UAE’s Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Bahrain’s Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, Morocco’s Nasser Bourita and Egypt’s Sameh Shoukry. The issue of Iran and threat threats from its proxies in the region was looming in the summit and the discussions were centered around creating a regional security architecture to counter the threats from air, sea and land. [8]
The islands of Tiran and Sanafir sits strategically at the mouth of Gulf Aqaba which assumes importance for the maritime route in the region mainly to the Israeli port of Eilat. After the Suez war in 1956 and 1967 Arab Israeli war, the islands fallen to Israel. As per the Camp David Accord, 1979, Israel withdrew and there is a multinational force and observers are there in the Tiran Island in order to guarantee the freedom of movement through the Gulf of Aqaba. [9] The deal is part of the diplomatic and strategic move under the US supervision with Israel’s approval to create a pragmatic and transactional engagement between the two major US allies, crucial for a US security order based on Arab-Israel coalition. In return of the approval of Israel for the transfer and removal of the multinational force and observers, Riyadh would allow Israeli flights to use its air space, a potential move paving the Israel and Saudi normalization.[10] The deal was to be formalised during the visit of President Biden, 13th to 16th July 2022 to the region. Besides, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation in a statement on 15th July 2022 announced that it has taken a decision to “open the kingdom’s airspace for all air carriers that meet the requirements of the authority for overflying”, to fulfill its obligation under Chicago Convention and to enhance international air connectivity. It means that flights to and from Israel now can overfly the Saudi airspace. [11]
President Biden referred it as “Saudi Arabia’s historic decision, an important step towards building a more integrated and stable Middle East region.It can help build momentum towards Israel’s further integration into the region, including Saudi Arabia. [12] The decision was the crucial outcome of the US administration to create a favourable order in the region with the increasing cooperation of Israel and Arab states in which Saudi Arabia assumes foremost significance. The response of the US National Security Advisor, Jack Sullivan makes it further apparent when he says that “This decision is the result of the President’s persistent and principled diplomacy with Saudi Arabia over many months, culminating in his visit today. This decision paves the way for a more integrated, stable and secure Middle East region, which is vital for the security and prosperity of the United States and the American people, and for the security and prosperity of Israel,” [13]
The US diplomacy remained engaged for widening of such integrative efforts which resulted eventually in the Oman also joined Saudi Arabia giving permission to all airlines to overfly its territory. Thus, such seamless air corridor in the region for Israel is a significant progress towards normalization of crucial practice without a formal diplomatic relation. [14] The Israeli Foreign Minister, Eli Cohen has remarked that “This is a historic decision that will shorten the flying time to Asia, lower costs for Israeli citizens and help Israeli airlines to be more competitive. I thank the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tarik, and our American friends for their substantial help in the success of the move.” [15]
These are crucial milestones in the recent months towards Arab-Israel cooperation and pragmatic engagements. But the greater issue of formal and truly cordial relation needs a long way to go as the Palestine issue remained at the core of the Arab political consciousness. The US policy since the Trump administration has aroused critical skepticism about US political will and honest diplomatic intent. The recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, shifting of the US embassy to Jerusalem, [16] recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Golan Heights, [17] the so-called Trump’s Deal of the Century [18] and unabated settlement expansion are the inconvenient condition for the Arab leaders to make crucial decision towards an integrated regional security framework and structure with Israel under the US security umbrella.
The slow and lackluster response of the US in the wake of the Houthi drone attacks on Saudi ARAMCO critical infrastructure [19] and procrastination in the F-35 deal with UAE due to concerns over Israel’s qualitative military edge and the UAE’s ties with China [20] have deepened the doubts, an unsustainable strategic environment for a desirable Arab-Israel security structure and American order in the region anytime soon. The Biden visit to the region in July 2022, therefore, perceptibly could not attain its intended goals of bringing all its allies in the region on-board. The OPEC decision to cut oil production and the related spat between the US and Saudi Arabia has been an unprecedented saga. [21]
These inexorable issues are further complicated by the growing engagement of the other powers mainly the Russians and the Chinese. In contrast to the President Joe Biden visit in July same year, the grandness of the welcome, arrangement and the power-pact summits, China-Saudi Arabia, China-GCC and China-Arab was a powerful statement of geo-strategic and geopolitical change underway. This symbolises a changing political aspirations and economic visions of the countries of the region. [22]
The shared fear of imminent restoration of Iran nuclear deal is rife in the Arab countries as well as in Israel. This set-in motion a normalisation trends in the region-Intra-Arab and Arab-Iranian peace gesture and normalisation diplomacy. Numerous expressions and actions of political accommodation are at play. From the Al Ula Summit ending blockaded of Qatar, diplomatic normalisation of Syria by other Arab States, to restoration of relations of many GCC countries with Iran. To cap all, there has been five rounds of Iran-Saudi Arabia Talk, the Baghdad process, with Saudi prince statement that Iran is a neighbour and we must have a good relation are unprecedented manifestation of geopolitical changes in the region. The response of the Prince in his interview to the Atlantic Magazine is worth mentioning. He says about Iran that “They are neighbours. Neighbours forever. We cannot get rid of them, and they can’t get rid of us. So it’s better for both of us to work it out and to look for ways in which we can coexist. We heard statements from Iranian leaders which we welcome in Saudi Arabia. And we are going to continue through details of the negotiation. Hopefully, we can reach a position that’s good for both countries and is going to create a brighter future for this country and Iran.” [23]
The Palestine issue which is on boil in the recent times with spiraling cycle of violence and the US has lost the perception of an honest peace broker in the region. Specter of Arab solidarity and support for Palestine during Doha World Cup requires a serious re-evaluation of US policy and approach towards this long-festering issue. The US policy in the recent years mainly during Trump Presidency, when his envoy for Israeli-Palestine negotiation, Jason Greenblatt said that United States no longer respected the fiction of an international consensus on the Israeli-Palestine issue. [24] The Doha World Cup demonstrated an unprecedented popular Arab consensus and solidarity on the issue. Thus, an American Order seems to be difficult to sustain with Abraham Accord, its expansion to other countries and military edge of Israel only. A prudent diplomacy with a genuine vision of regional peace and stability can only sustain an American order. [25]
The Joint Trilateral Statement of Iran, Saudi Arabia and China on resumption of diplomatic ties [26] by Iran and Saudi Arabia holds numerous implications for the US geopolitical interests and the US pursuits of an American order in the region. It will have a huge impact on the pursuit of American regional order based on Arab-Israel cooperation against Iran and its proxies in the region. This also marks a strategic loss of its most important regional ally and Arab leader, Saudi Arabia deviated from its security model in the region and a setback to its diplomatic push to bring Saudi Arabia under Abraham Accords against Iran and its threats. This exposes a stark inability of US policy of isolating Iran in the region and the world and strategic miscalculation of Chinese heft of influence and its diplomatic stature in the region. The two rival nations, China and Iran have pulled away its long-term geopolitical pillar, Saudi Arabia in the region. The warm welcoming responses from the regional and international organizations like GCC, OIC, UNO and European Union and nations across the region and the world [27] warrants pragmatic re-evaluation and prudent responses to remain a relevant and retain its credible image of provider of security and stability in the region.
The National Security Advisor, Jake Sulivan in May 2023 visited Riyadh. Along with the National Security Advisors of India, UAE and the Saudi Crown Prince “to advance their shared vision of a more secure and prosperous Middle East region interconnected with India and the world.”[28] The meeting envisaged an ambitious infrastructure project to connect West Asian Rail Network with Indian ports for a more secure and prosperous region in a bid to counter the Chinese footprints in the region with its expanding Belt and Road Initiative. Though Israel did not participate but the idea was proposed by Israel only in the previous I2U2 meetings.[29] The Trilaterals can further be useful in the joint projects and endeavours for maritime domain awareness in the Indian Ocean for the future blue economy vision as well as maritime security in the strategic waters of North Indian Ocean, Gulf of Oman, chokepints of Bab al-Mandeb strait and Strait of Hormuz.
The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken visited Saudi Arabia for three days last week (6-8 June 2023) and “expressed appreciation for Saudi Arabia’s leadership in hosting the D-ISIS Ministerial and stressed our joint continued efforts to fight terrorism. The two affirmed their shared commitment to advance stability, security, and prosperity across the Middle East and beyond, including through a comprehensive political agreement to achieve peace, prosperity, and security in Yemen.” read the State Department Readout. [30] He discussed on issues regarding Iran, Sudan, the Islamic State, regional infrastructure, clean energy and the potential normalization of Saudi-Israel relations. However, the Biden administration is watching the Saudi overtures to China, balancing at with Russia and Ukraine and its approach towards Israel. The trip is viewed as an effort by the US to rebuild its strained ties with the kingdom. [31] But Saudi Arabia seems to have assumed an independent policy towards Russia, China and even Iran and Syria based on its national interests and Saudi Vision 2030. Its views and policies increasingly represent a dynamic pragmatism in the changing geopolitical context not from the perspective of primacy to the US partnership.
Growing competitive multi-polar world and its reflections among the regional countries with increasing propensity to tilt towards others emerging poles like China, India and Russia in consonance with their national interests is a new dimension. More number of states in the region are showing interests in joining the alternative multilateral forums like BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)- Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Turkey etc which is bound to hurdle the pursuit of American Security Order. US remain a paramount military power and security provider in the region and will remain so for considerable time to come. But the changing geopolitical syndrome needs pragmatic consideration of new ideas of changes and geopolitical actors as well as the new aspirations of countries of the region in terms of their economic vision and maturity as a state. The prudent acceptance of wind of multipolarity is crucial to adapt American primacy into a gradual transition to a more benign and cooperative multipolar and multilateral approach to serve the US interests better and for a lasting peace and stability of this strategic region.
References:
[1] The Abraham Accords (2020) “Ceremony on the South Lawn, White House presided over by President Donald Trump.” https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/index.html
[2] US Central Command Statement on the Realignment of the State of Israel (2021), US Central Command Public Affairs, 1st September 2021, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/2762272/us-central-command-statement-on-the-realignment-of-the-state-of-israel/
[3] Secretary of State Antony J Blinken’s Meeting with Emirati Foreign Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr. Subramanyam Jaishankar and Israeli Foreign Minister and Alternate Prime Minister, Yair Lapid (2021), Readout, Office of the Spokesperson, US Department of State, 18th October 2021, https://www.state.gov/secretary-of-state-antony-j-blinkens-meeting-with-emirati-foreign-minister-sheikh-abdullah-bin-zayed-indian-external-affairs-minister-dr-subrahmanyam-jaishankar-and-israeli-foreign-minist/
[4] Joint Statement of the Leaders of India, Israel, United Arab Emirates and the United States (I2U2), The White House, 14th July 2022; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/14/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-india-israel-united-arab-emirates-and-the-united-states-i2u2/
[5] Remarks by President Biden, Prime Minister Lapid, President bin Zayed al Nahyan and Prime Minister Modi at I2U2 Virtual Event, The White House, 14th July 2022; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/07/14/remarks-by-president-biden-prime-minister-lapid-president-bin-zayed-al-nahyan-and-prime-minister-modi-at-i2u2-virtual-event/
[6] Viven Yee and Patrick Kingsley (2022), “Leaders of Israel, UAE and Egypt Meet for their First Summit, The New York Times, 22nd March 2022; https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/world/middleeast/egypt-israel-united-arab-emirates-summit.html
[7] Secretary J. Blinken Joint Press Statements at the Conclusion of the Nagev Summit, Office of the Spokesperson, US Department of State, 28th March 2022; https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-joint-press-statements-at-the-conclusion-of-the-negev-summit/
[8] Lazer Berman and Aaron Boxerman (2022) “Foreign Ministers of Bahrain, UAE, Morocco and Egypt arrive for Nagev Summit”, The Times of Israel, 27th March 2022; https://www.timesofisrael.com/foreign-ministers-of-bahrain-uae-morocco-and-egypt-arrive-for-negev-summit/
[9] Giorgio Cafiero (2022) “Tiran and Sanafir: Why Saudi Arabia wants the Red Sea islands”, THE NEW ARAB, 1st August 2022; https://www.newarab.com/analysis/red-sea-islands-why-saudi-arabia-wants-tiran-and-sanafir
[10] Jonathan Lis (2022) “Israel examining Steps to Transfer Red Sea Islands to Saudi Arabia, Haaretz, 29th May 2022; https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-05-29/ty-article/.premium/israel-examining-steps-to-transfer-red-sea-islands-to-saudi-arabia/00000181-0c58-d090-abe1-ed7dbbfb0000
[11] Victoria Bryan (2022) “Saudi Arabia opens airspace to all airlines, including Israel’s EI, AI”, AEROTIME HUB, 15th July 2022; https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/31598-saudi-arabia-opens-airspace-all-airlines#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia%20opens%20airspace%20to%20all%20airlines%2C%20including%20Israel's%20El%20Al,-byVictoria%20Bryan&text=Saudi%20Arabia%20announced%20plans%20to,and%20operate%20into%20the%20kingdom.
[12] Statement by President Biden Welcoming the Opening of Saudi Airspace to Israel (2022), The White House, 15th July, 2022; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/15/statement-by-president-biden-welcoming-the-opening-of-saudi-airspace-to-israel/
[13] Statement by National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan on the Opening of Saudi Airspace, (2022), The White House, 14th July 2022; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/14/statement-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-the-opening-of-saudi-airspace/
[14] Ghaida Ghantous (2023) “Oman opens airspace, joining Saudi corridor for Israel carriers. Reuter, Dubai, 24th February 2023; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oman-opens-airspace-joining-saudi-de-facto-israeli-airline-corridor-2023-02-23/
[15] Oman Permits Israeli Airlines to Fly through its Airspace (2023), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel, 23rd February 2023; https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/oman-permits-israeli-airlines-to-fly-through-its-airspace-23-feb-2023#:~:text=Oman%20announced%20a%20short%20while,and%20the%20authorities%20in%20Oman.
[16] President Donald Trump keeps his Promise to Open Embassy In Jerusalem, Israel (2018), The White House, 14th May, 2018; https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-keeps-promise-open-u-s-embassy-jerusalem-israel/
[17] Proclamation on Recognizing the Golan Heights as part of the State of Israel (2019) The White House, 25th March 2019; https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-recognizing-golan-heights-part-state-israel/
[18] Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People, The White House; https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/peacetoprosperity/
[19] Jon Gambrell and Zeke Miller (2019) “Trump: US locked and loaded for response to attack on Saudis”, AP News, 16th September 2019; https://apnews.com/article/iran-saudi-arabia-united-arab-emirates-dubai-persian-gulf-tensions-269744b35e16422fa746b0c1504ceb4f
[20] Ben Samuels (2022) “Two Years After Abraham Accords, Why the UAE F-35 Deal Remains Grounded, 13th September 2022; https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2022-09-13/ty-article/.premium/two-years-after-abraham-accords-why-the-uae-f-35-deal-remains-grounded/00000183-3743-d070-abef-f7d755450000
[21] Ahmad Elhamy and Moaz Abd Alaziz (2022) “Saudi arabia, United States clash over reason for OPEC+ Oil Cut”, REUTERS, 14th October 2022.; https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-rejects-statements-critical-opec-oil-cut-2022-10-12/
[22] FMPRC (2022) “President Xi Jinping arrives in Riyadh to attend the First China-Arab State Summit and the China-GCC Summit and Pay a State Visit to Saudi Arabia”, Foreign Ministry of Peoples Republic of China, 7th December 2022; https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/xjpcxfh/202212/t20221208_10986939.html
[23] Saudi Gazette (2022) “Full Transcript of Crown Prince Interview on Reforms, religious, future of Saudi of Saudi Arabia and relations with US”, Saudi Gazette, 3rd March, 2022; https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/617738
[24] Martin Indyk (2019) “Disaster in the Desert: Why Trumps Middle East Plan can’t Work”, Foreign Affairs, published on 15th October, November/December, 2019; https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-10-15/disaster-desert
[25] Daniel Benaim and Jake Sullivan (2020) “America’s Opportunity in the Middle East: Diplomacy Could Succeed Where Military Force Has Failed”, Foreign Affairs, May 22, 2020; https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-05-22/americas-opportunity-middle-east
[26] Full Text: Joint Trilateral Statement by the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran- China Military, Xinhuanet, 11th March, 2023
http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/TopStories_209189/16208245.html
[27] UN, EU, Arab and Gulf nations welcome Kingdom, Iran deal to resume diplomatic ties, Saudi Gazette, 11th March, 2023; https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/630578/SAUDI-ARABIA/UN-EU-Arab-and-Gulf-nations-welcome-Kingdom-Iran-deal-to-resume-diplomatic-ties
[28] The White House (2023) “Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Meeting on Regional Integration”, 7th May 2023; https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/07/readout-of-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivans-meeting-on-regional-integration/
[29] ET (2023] “NSA Ajit Doval in a secret talk in Saudi Arabia to shape a counter China”, Economic Times (ET), 8th May 2023; https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/nsa-ajit-doval-in-secret-talks-in-saudi-arabia-to-shape-a-counter-to-china/articleshow/100078721.cms?from=mdr
[30] US Department of State (2023) “Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman”, US Department of State, 6th June 2023; https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman/
[31] Edward Wong and Vivian Nereim (2023) “Blinken’s Visit to Saudi Arabia Caps US Effort to Rebuild Ties”, The New York Times, 8th June, 203
