Geopolitical realism is the dominant trend in the Gulf and wider West Asia at the moment. In the post-1967 the Gulf has gradually emerged as a dominant sub-region and the centre of power away from traditional center of Egypt and Syria. The trend gained momentum in the wake of the Arab Spring when the Gulf States were forced to respond with alacrity and pragmatism to manage and tame this existential threat. Owing to their strategic location, natural resources and increasingly complex demographics, the Gulf region faces wide range of risks to its stability. In addition to the traditional political and military threats, the region is faced with such global challenges as climate change and pandemic which has dented its economic stability devastatingly with ramifications at national and regional level. The United Arab Emirates has responded to the situation with multi-pronged strategy and pragmatic policies in line with the changing geopolitical landscape and emerged as the dominant factor in the Gulf and wider West Asia. It has displayed discernible prudence in its approach to the Gulf security which is integral to its national security. In this perspective, UAE’s Iran policy is a crucial component to analyze and understand dynamics of threat perception and security imperative in the region.
UAE threat perception and Iran
As an Arab Gulf state, UAE shares the threat perception of all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states from its Iran flanking the eastern side across the Gulf. Thus given its geographical location, demography and natural resources UAE is faced with unusual and extraordinary complex threats perceptions and challenges.. The security and stability in the region just turned for the worst within a decade of formation of UAE with Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979 and the subsequent Iran-Iraq war (1980-88). The UAE leadership recognized the enormity of the grave existential danger and builds a close strategic relation with the United States. The relationship of trust and commitment over the years gained added significance in the wake of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. In last two decades, UAE assumed a place of primacy in the US policy in the region. The UAE has become a vital US partner in a wide range of regional security issue and developed a collective strategy for a shared goal of stable, secure and prosperous region. The cooperation getting denser with growing issues threats and their numerous manifestations.
Besides, UAE has demonstrated solidarity with other GCC states for common understanding and joint coordination for a united front against the foreign meddling in the region with grave implications for their security and regional stability. The interferences of Iran in the countries of the region has natural bearing on the national security of UAE and therefore, perceives it as a security threat and assigns highest priority to the issue in its security policies and strategic responses. Despite its long-standing dispute over the strategic Gulf Islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs as well as direct confrontation in Yemen, UAE stands for peaceful and diplomatic resolutions of the areas of disputes with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The stance has been voiced by the highest political offices of UAE. “It is natural to wish for normal relations with your neighbours, most notably with Iran and we affirm that any natural relations must be based on clear principles that respect sovereignty and reject interfering in internal affairs,” said Dr. Anwar Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of UAE.
Strategy of Prudent Response and Communication
The approach of UAE towards Iran has been marked by strategic prudence given the geographical proximity and historical maritime and business linkages. At the height of the US invasion of Iraq and consequent security flux in Gulf UAE and Iran started their talk on maritime boundaries to keep them in communication loop to avoid any untoward eventualities. In order to maintain maritime border cooperation the two countries conduct joint meeting for addressing and resolving issues and concerns of littoral security in the crisis ridden waters of the Gulf. The sixth joint meeting was held in Tehran when both sides led by Iran’s Border Police Commander Brigadier General QassemRezaei and Emirati Coastguard Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Mosleh al-Ahbabi called for bilateral diplomatic efforts to strengthen security in the Gulf and the sea of Oman. They shared the view that such efforts of cooperation would pave the way for sustainable security with mutual and reinforcing benefits.
In the recent years, the crisis in the Gulf has been chronically intensifying with the impending danger of hot conflict in the wake of US withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent ‘Maximum Pressure’ strategy. The following war of words and belligerent rhetoric between Iran and the US has pushed the security of the region to its worst vulnerable state. UAE perceives Iran and its policy of interference with utmost concerns but wants only containment without destructive security implications for the region in case of war which would affect all the states in the region. Thus UAE has assumed a strategic position in line with its national security perception which is interlinked with the regional peace and stability. Thus UAE maintains its supports for the US policy but started pursuing a strategic pivot towards the East to counterbalance its overdependence on the United States.
Pragmatic Balancing Strategy
Therefore, the UAE has adopted a nuanced prudent strategy towards Iran given its geographical proximity and possible spill-over of impending conflict. The understanding deepens with the attacks on the tankers off the coast of Fujairah and ARMCO oil facilities in Saudi Arabia allegedly by the Houthis of Yemen with the Iranian backing. UAE maintains its strategic silence so far as blame on Iran is concerned and emphasizes on de-escalation as a priority for regional stability, a necessary condition for its own security. “Further escalation at this moment serves no one and we strongly believe that there is room for collective diplomacy to succeed,” UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs said in a speech in Dubai.
Given the crisis syndrome and its dangerous implication in the wake of super power conflict in the region, UAE stands for a regional cooperation based on peaceful resolution of outstanding issues without resorting to any military option which is bound to affect one and all in the region. On his remark on regional development the UAE minister of state for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Anwar Gargash said that “We have critical junctures in major conflicts and challenges across our region.” He further emphasized the necessity of de-escalation and called for new ideas and commitment to create “new, more stable regional order in which all countries will be able to thrive.” The progressive pursuits in this direction were exhorted for the benefit of the whole region which is integral to the national interest of UAE and rest all. In response to the changing world order UAE supports for rule-based multilateral world for the peace and stability of Gulf region.
UAE is perturbed with the Iranian resumption of uranium enrichment after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and wants concerted response of the international community to bring Iran to the negotiating table before it is too late and assume dangerous proportion. It will take long time but UAE urges for necessary patience and negotiated solution not only nuclear issue but also Iran’s missile programme and destabilizing proxy network in the region. It warns against the “false choice” between the war and the “flawed” nuclear deal.
UAE-Iran Business Contacts
UAE has a sizeable Iranian in the country with historic economic and business ties. The country since long before 1971, mainly Dubai has been a thriving center of Iranian business and taste. As per informal estimates, the city sate hosts around 600,000 Iranian. But the US sanctions are making the situation tough for the Iranian community here. The Iranian Business Council, Dubai is telling testimony of the fact of this deeper UAE-Iran business linkages and interests. The members are engaged in numerous business activities like banking, financial services, transportation, technology, manufacturing, mining and infrastructure etc. In the process they have developed mutually beneficial and reinforcing business interests with local business and industry leaders. But the US sanctions is changing the situation as the UAE firms, companies and banks are becoming increasingly reluctant in the face punitive US actions. Iranian businesses are hugely affected in the country. Large Iranian businessmen are leaving the city and looking for alternative places. The situation has worsened with the blacklisting of five UAE companies by the United States. “The Iranian regime uses the revenue from the petroleum and petrochemical sales to fund its terrorist proxies like IRGC-QF instead of health and well-being of the Iranian people,” said the US Treasury Secretary in a statement explaining the action that those UAE companies were complicit in facilitating it.
Despite the US sanctions the deep-seated business contact and willing cooperation of the UAE businesses the condition has been unchanged. As per the Pars Energy Special Economic Zone of Iran it still identifies UAE as the destination of Iranian petrochemical products. The sanctioned Iranian economy was therefore allowed to be functioning with such behind the scene cooperation of UAE, which the latter resort to keep the crisis within the limit for the security and stability in the Gulf. But the continued ‘Maximum Pressure Policy’ and the sanction supervision machinery once again has come heavily on two UAE based companies and sanctioned them for their critical shipping services and financial transaction on behalf of the Triliance Petrochemical Co. Ltd already sanctioned by US in January, 2020. “The United States will act against persons who support illicit actors engaged in the movement of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical sales”, said Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin.
The changed approach since the attack on oil tankers and the ARAMCO facilities is the clearly based on the perceived vulnerability to Iranian military reactions and responses in the event of armed hostility. Thus UAE is silently pursuing a soft approach towards the sanctioned Iran. The Iranian President in his UN address has called for a coalition of Hope for the security and stability of Hormuz. “I should like to invite all the countries directly affected the developments in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Coalition for Hope meaning Hormuz Peace Endeavor”, for promoting “peace, stability, progress and welfare” for all in the region based on “two fundamental principles of non-aggression and non-interference in the domestic affairs of each other”, he said. The call has not been received well given Iranian unabated activities all across the region and geopolitical interests of the powers mainly the US policy towards Iran.
But UAE has adopted an unusual policy of outreach to Iran under its humanitarian policy during the pandemic. H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation discussed about the pandemic and its regional and global implication with Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. He affirmed the UAE’s support to the Iranian people in their struggle against the crisis and stressed the need of collective efforts to deal with the global challenge. This pandemic outreach suggests sufficient consistency and continued contacts between the two countries. The UAE Foreign Minister exchanged Eid Al Adha greetings with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif in a video call and reviewed the pandemic condition in the two countries and stressed for global cooperation for vaccine development. The UAE policy of outreach remains unabated which becomes clearer in the statement of the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, H. E. Anwar Gargash that political consideration should not be considered in humanitarian assistance. He went to the extent that “That is why the UAE did not hesitate to provide aid to Iran when it needed it. And at a regional level, we must revitalize efforts to establish a new paradigm of cooperation and friendship, geared towards a prosperous future for the region”.
In the wake of the airstrike killing Gen Qassem Solemani of Iran, UAE responded urging all to avoid the situation lapsing into a war. “In light of the rapid regional developments, it is necessary to put wisdom, balance and political solutions above confrontation and escalation. The region has been facing complicated issues, and suffers from a loss of confidence between parties. This situation requires adopting a rational approach that is free of emotions,” said Dr. Anwar Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, UAE in his tweet. In the recent assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakirzadh, the UAE’s response notably evinces its concerns of the regional security and stability. The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation condemned the incident as wrongful targeted assassination in a statement.
Even the Abraham Accord is based on the strategic thinking of UAE to deal with changing geopolitical landscape in the region in the wake of ambivalence in the US commitment, Turkish influence (political Islam) in the wake of Qatar crisis and continued Iranian threat. Thus the Accord brings Israel as a factor to counter both Turkey and Iran. It would maintain stability in the region and spur the regional stature of UAE vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia. Thus it emphasizes on diplomatic solution and calls Iran to sit with regional states to resolve US sanctions, nuclear question and suspicion on missile programme with Biden Administration. The policy manifests UAE’s geo-strategic transformation pursuit aimed at its geopolitical empowerment in the Gulf and West Asia.
Implications and Prospects for India
The UAE is the country our Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi visited three times in last six years and our External Affairs Ministers, S Jaishankar visited in November and the minister remarked in an interview that the Abraham Accord will help grow the UAE’s position as a logistic hub for the rest of Asian economies, benefiting India as well. Indian Army Chief Gen. Naravane also made a visit to the country in December, 2020 and held talks on enhancement and strengthening of our strategic partnership in regional issues, security and shared vision for future. The visit reflects the growing ties and cooperation in the arena of defence and security/ These visits must be analysed in the context of security situation and implications of assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientists, Mohsen Fakirzadeh in the region. The recent UAE outreach to Iran can help manage the security and stability in the region.
Iran assumes strategic salience in in India’s Afghan policy and Central Asian vision. It is also an important component India’s maritime security strategy in the Indian Ocean. In his address to the India-Uzbekistan Virtual summit, Prime Minister Modi talked about multiple cooperation with Uzbekistan on Afghanistan, connectivity and security. The Joint Statement was marked by agreement on shared vision and commitment to cooperation in different arena including security. The process culminated with the Trilateral Working Group Meeting of India, Iran and Uzbekistan on joint use of Chabahar port.The participants discussed the importance of the port in trade, transit purposes and enhanced connectivity. All agreed on the significance of the port in pandemic humanitarian transportation of aid and assistance. In brief, UAE’s Abraham accord is a shared opportunity for our vision in the region and its Iran policy fits well into India’s geopolitical vision and strategy for Afghanistan, Central Asia and maritime security in the wake Chinese string of threats in India Ocean.
Implications and Prospects for India
UAE’s Iran policy is a strategic geopolitical tool to ensure its security and spur its leadership in the region by managing all- Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia, a strategy of striking a prudent balance for its geo-strategic relevance in this competitive region and serve its global aspirations. This policy is in line with its national vision of resilient economies, resilient society, sustainable security and prudent diplomacy. In the grand overview it manifests UAE’s policy determination to assume increasing autonomy from both Saudi Arabia and Washington pragmatically based on its national interests and security imperatives in the region and changing global order.
