US President Donald Trump proclaimed an illusory deliberation notionally implored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to fix the almost seven-decade Kashmir conflict through mediation, while courting Pakistani PM Imran Khan in the Oval Office on July 22. Trump conveniently disregarded India‟s definitive policy to settle the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan exclusively through bilateral negotiations. Since 1972 Shimla agreement, India deterred several attempts of successive US administrations to mediate, but Trump‟s reference to a dreamlike Modi‟s invitation to mediate triggered intense reactions in the Indian parliament, media houses and among the cliques of international policy experts.
However, unruffled at Trump‟s fanciful mediation claim, Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson categorically denied President Trump‟s remarks within an hour, while External Affairs Minister (EAM) Jaishankar assured the Parliamentarians that PM Modi made no such appeal for mediation at the 2019 G-20 summit held in Osaka, Japan. Indian policy consistently maintains that a firm termination of cross-border terrorism is a sine qua non for India-Pakistan engagement under the framework of the 1972 Shimla Agreement and 1999 Lahore Declaration.
Trump‟s remarks gain geopolitical significance ahead of the scheduled visit of PM Modi to the US in September to attend the 74th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 74), during which he is liable to meet Trump. In such a backdrop, it is imperative to decipher President Trump‟s Kashmir claims to alleviate apprehensions among Indian society. The 16th US President Abraham Lincoln‟s political thought on policy formulation is key to decipher Trump‟s delusional remarks in principle. In a descriptive note to 23rd Kentucky Governor Thomas Bramlette in 1864, Lincoln says, “I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me” while explaining his extreme policy shift to liberate slavery from his initial non-interference policy with slavery. The developments in the sphere of Afghanistan and Iran, especially ahead of the 2020 Presidential elections, among the other developments in the international sphere, likely appear to be influenced President Trump to proclaim mediation in Kashmir, which emboldens visiting Pakistani PM Khan.
President Trump is univocal in his policy to retreat a significant number of US troops from Afghanistan by the day of US Presidential elections in 2020, who were deployed to “end the endless war” with Al-Qaeda following September 11 attacks in 2001. Likewise, President Obama too proposed to retreat the troops by the end of his second term in 2016. Though both policies resemble similar in their approach, Trump is desperate to retreat the forces to garner voters confidence in the run-up to the second-term Presidential bid. In an eagerness to retreat from the Afghanistan war zone, Trump‟s administration established a negotiation channel with the Rawalpindi harbored Taliban, unlike his predecessor Obama who considered “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned” model for resolving the Afghanistan crisis, despite lacking indicators of improved governance and self-reliant defense force to safeguard Afghanistan‟s interests, including Pakistan-based and homegrown terrorist threat. President Trump‟s tactics appear to embolden Pakistan, which professes “strategic depth” in Afghanistan through Rawalpindi harbored Taliban, to realize peace by negotiating an end to the conflict in Afghanistan. A sudden shift in Trump‟s Pakistan policy from his January 2018 decision to freeze security assistance signifies that any strains in US-Pakistan relations pose direct implications on the ongoing Afghan peace dialogue between the US and Taliban.
Similarly, a 900-kilometre natural border with Iran serves Pakistan to gain geostrategic leverage against the US, especially as Trump effectuating all strategies to blockade Iran. In May 2018, Trump unilaterally revoked 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal – Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between Iran and Germany together with the European Union, and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), including China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States. The JCPOA agreement imposes certain restrictions on Iran, including limiting the Uranium enrichment capabilities far below the weapons-grade and discharging 98 per cent of enriched Uranium. Subsequent sanctions on Iran‟s oil exports, designating Iran‟s military – Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)- as a terrorist organization, and sanctions on state leaders deteriorated the US-Iran bilateral relations and destabilizing the regional order, particularly in the Persian Gulf.
The US State Department‟s (equivalent to MEA) designation of Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) as a terrorist organization for apparently targeting security forces and civilians in Pakistan‟s restive Baluchistan province on July 2 is a relevant precursor to Trump‟s conforming approach to embolden Pakistan, which later observed Kashmir mediation remarks. Based on Lincoln‟s thought, US‟s gravity for Pakistan‟s political and strategic reinforcement, which is quintessential for a peace deal with Taliban and intensifying Tehran blockade, motivated Trump to proclaim Kashmir mediation claims. The $125 million (INR 870 Crore) military funding to maintain technical and logistic support for Pakistan‟s F-16 fighter program is an indication from Trump of certain exceptions in return for Pakistan‟s assured cooperation. Though, the new support enhances the US to monitor the F-16 fighter jets 24/7 on the ground, which partly serves Indian interests.
Besides, by invoking Kashmir conflict, President Trump appears to gain leverage against India to fast-track the guaranteed defence deals with the US arms industry to serve the Indian armed forces, while India is perceived to be boosting arms deal with Russia, including the $5 billion (INR 35,000 crore) agreement with Russia to purchase S-400 Triumph Missile system. Despite legitimate energy demands, India reduced oil imports from Iran to acknowledge the US sanctions, yet Trump administration‟s latest policy approach signals trust deficit vis-a-vis India‟s decision over Iran oil.
Nevertheless, consequent implications on India-US relations stimulated established South Asian experts in the US to reemphasize India‟s policy on Kashmir conflict for a wider audience in the US, including President Trump and his advisors. An apologia offered by 11-time US Congressman Brad Sherman to Indian Ambassador to the US over President Trump‟s “delusional remarks” reflects the comprehensive recognition of India‟s Kashmir policy in the US and alleviates any apprehensions of Indian policymakers. Further, the US State Department reassurance by indicating that India-Pakistan tensions are liable to resolve bilaterally and Pakistan needs to exercise “sustained and irreversible” measures to fight against terrorism underscores the significance of India-US relations for both democratic nations in a complex 21st century.
President Trump‟s disdain for a coordinated approach to strategy and policy and infighting in Trump‟s administration over policies endangering core-interests of friendly countries is evident in the recent US posture across Asia. Ahead of PM Modi‟s visit to the US, Indian foreign ministry officials need a comprehensive strategy with clear goals, objectives and options to realize Indian interests to gain dominance in the Indian Ocean Region and boost coordinated efforts with the US in the immediate neighborhood.
While approving $670 million (INR 4,600 crores) worth of technical and logistical equipment and services for India‟s C-17 transport planes on July 26, US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DCSA) emphasized India‟s crucial role in maintaining “political stability, peace, and economic progress” across Indo-Pacific and South Asia region. India serves as a lynchpin for US Indo-Pacific strategy and Indo-US cooperation is quintessential to balance an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific region. India must aspire to realize a cohesion among the connectivity initiatives in the region, especially with Japan‟s Asia Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) and US‟s Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act to boost connectivity in India‟s neighborhood to offset China‟s bolstering Belt and Road Initiative investments, particularly in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh. India must lead an active role in realizing the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) along with Australia, Japan and the US to serve its security demands in the region with a focus on the Indian Ocean Region.
