Abstract:

Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war can be observed in all the significant domains in the geopolitics, where Outer Space is no exception. International collaborations are being in turmoil as space agencies grapple with the consequences of the war. This situation prompts the need to assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war in the space domain and ramifications for the global space cooperation. This article focuses on identifying the effect of Russia-Ukraine war on the global space cooperation, especially on the International Space Station (ISS).

Introduction:

The Cold War marked the beginning of the space race. Space became one of the biggest battlefields for military as well as the civilian space cooperation, especially among the major space powers. Despite being an arena for competition, Space managed to simultaneous act as an area of cooperation, especially between the two space superpowers i.e., the U.S. and Russia (former USSR).

Ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war can be seen for all the significant domains in the geopolitics, where Outer space is no exception. Despite several economic disruptions since the Covid-19 pandemic, the tensions had not directly extended to the outer space. Whereas the space sector can be seen being actively used as a battlefield between the Russia and the West with the eruption of Russo-Ukraine war. International collaborations are being in turmoil as the space agencies and research organisations grapple with the consequences of the war. This situation prompts the need to identify the numerous factors that have been responsible for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war in the space domain and assess the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on the global space cooperation. This article focuses on identifying these factors and further attempts to identify the degree of impact of Russia-Ukraine war on the global space cooperation, especially the International Space Station (ISS).

International Space Station (ISS): A new battlefield for Russia and the West

The International Space Station is a modular space station in low Earth orbit. It is a multinational collaborative project involving five participating space agencies: NASA, Roscosmos, JAXA, ESA, and CSA. The ownership and use of the space station is established by intergovernmental treaties and agreements[i]. Since 2000, the ISS has managed to dodge the impact of Earth-bound politics on the space cooperation. Till 2020, Russia, for decades, had carried American astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS) on board its Soyuz rockets. Russia, since its Ukraine invasion in February 2022, has been facing several economic sanctions from the West. Whereas OneWeb, a satellite company providing space-based internet services, partly owned by UK government, suspended all its launches from the Russian-operated Baikonur spaceport, in March 2022.

The ripples of Russia-Ukraine war could be seen in the Outer Space, a domain that served as an area of cooperation between Russia and the West for years. In February 2022, the US and Russia were conducting negotiations for a resumption of shared flights, but the plans got disrupted with the eruption of war between the later and Ukraine[ii]. In May 2022, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin stated that it will no longer cooperate with international partners onboard ISS, in response to west imposed sanctions[iii]. Although the official date of withdrawal has not been announced. On the other hand, a leading researcher at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nathan Eismont mentioned that it would become almost impossible to operate if Russia quit from ISS. He reverberated with former Roscosmos director Sergei Krikalev's comments emphasising on the necessity for cooperation between the Russian and American scientists in Outer Space[iv].

Earlier Roscosmos Chief Rogozin had emphasized that Russia's exit would pose a serious threat to the operations in ISS since Roscosmos rockets deliver fuel and cargo to the spade station. "Only the engines of our cargo craft are able to correct the ISS' orbit, keeping it safe from space debris,"mentions Rogozin[v].

However, the US is recently working with its private company Space X, to deliver cargo and conduct manned flights to the ISS. Elon Musk's Space X rockets have so far launched five NASA crews within two years, reducing Washington’s dependence on the Russian Soyuz capsules. The US may also get excluded from being a part of the joint space project Vanera-D with Russia, an interplanetary mission to explore Venus. Venera-D was originally a planned joint space exploration project between Russia's Roscosmos and US space agency NASA to explore Venus[vi]. Now, Moscow will carry out the mission on its own or may collaborate with China.

After the Space ties with the West have gone astray, Russia is now relying heavily on China for cooperation in manned space missions. The Russian space agency, Roscosmos, has stated that it is exploring the option of cooperating with Beijing on crewed missions as the two countries are on course to ready space stations. Amidst the ongoing discord between Russia and the West, China aims to complete the construction of its Space Station by the end of this year. Beijing has already planned six launches to Tiangong to add two science modules to the in-orbit Tianhe core module. The launches also include two cargo spacecraft and two crewed missions[vii]. Russia has already been working with China on a five-year space cooperation program for 2023-2028[viii]. The war is ending three decades old association that served as a means to bridge the gap between Russia and the West. “This will fracture that relationship built after the end of the cold war,” says Asif Siddiqi, a historian at Fordham University in New York City. “When historians look back, it will be 1991 -the collapse of Soviet Union -to 2022.”[ix]

Western space agencies have followed suit, creating a complex situation for Russia’s space agency. NASA, ESA and the Canadian Space Agency made clearly conveyed to Russia that the sanctions imposed on certain Russian space enterprises won’t be lifted except for certain activities under the International Space Station (ISS) project[x].

Boeing, an American aerospace company, suspended buying titanium from Russia, while its European rival Airbus decided to continue using supplies from the nation that hosts the world's largest supplier of the commodity, VSMPO-AVISMA[xi]. The Boeing stated that it had substantial inventory of the metal, prized in aerospace for its strength relative to its weight and its compatibility with the latest generation of carbon-fibre, long-distance passenger jets[xii]. Bombardier Inc, a Canadian business Aerospace company, suspended all the activities with its Russian clients, over the same grounds[xiii]. On March 17, 2022, Europe had suspended the joint ExoMars mission where the ExoMars rover Rosalind Franklin was scheduled to be launched in September 2022.xiv with Roscosmos as they look to search for better alternatives to implement the rover mission, including for spacecraft originally planned for launch by Soyuz from Kourou, will be submitted to Member States[xv].

Conclusion/Way Ahead:

Except for the withdrawal of aerospace manufactures like Boeing and Bombardier, no major commercial space players have taken any explicit actions against Russia. The use of Space to impose sanctions on Russia by the West has remained limited, although a ripple effect of SWIFT and cryptocurrency sanction on the space sector, may be observed in the long run. Moreover, Russia can be seen using its Space power as a deterrence tool to counter these sanctions, by alienating itself from space cooperation with the West.

The ISS is jointly managed by Moscow and Washington. A complete withdrawal by Russia which will also lead to removal of Russian module from the ISS, may pose certain practical concerns for the operation of ISS the Russian module had helped in orbit correction of the ISS in the past. With the increasing rift between Russia and the West, it will be essential to observe the trajectory of Sino-Russian ties in the zero gravity as it poses a tough competition to the civilian and commercial manned space missions by other western as well as not western space programmes. The other spacefaring nations need to stay alert as the Chinese Tiangong space station has a military connotation too, posing a higher risk of polarization of space powers in the low earth orbit.

References

i Kumar, B.R. (2022). Case 5: International Space Station. In: Project Finance. Management for Professionals. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96725-3_9

ii Mailonline, D. A. F. (2022, April 30). Russia will quit the International Space Station due to economic sanctions over war in Ukraine . Daily Mail Online. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10770737/Russia-quit-International-Space-Station-economic-sanctions-war-Ukraine.html

iii Das, D. (2022, May 2). Russia to abort cooperation with ESA & NASA on missions at ISS; what happens now? Republic World. Retrieved May 13, 2022, from https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-to-abort-cooperation-with-esa-and-nasa-on-missions-at-iss-what-happens-now-articleshow.html

iv Republic World. (2022, May 2). Russia to abort cooperation with ESA & NASA on missions at ISS; what happens now? Republic World. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-to-abort-cooperation-with-esa-and-nasa-on-missions-at-iss-what-happens-now-articleshow.html

v Ibid.

vi PTI. (n.d.). Russia may keep us out of Joint Space Project due to sanctions; plans to rope in China instead: Space chief. The Economic Times. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/russia-may-keep-us-out-of-joint-space-project-due-to-sanctions-plans-to-rope-in-china-instead-space-chief/articleshow/89849553.cms?from=mdr

vii Desk, I. T. W. (2022, April 26). Snubbed by West, Russia to work with China on manned space missions. India Today. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/snubbed-by-west-russia-to-work-with-china-on-manned-space-missions-1942031-2022-04-26

viii CGTN. (n.d.). Russian expert: Russia and China are working on a space cooperation program for 2023-2028. CGTN. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-16/Russia-and-China-working-on-a-five-year-space-cooperation-program-19hm4vXgJ44/index.html

ix Witze, A. (2022, March 11). Russia's invasion of Ukraine is redrawing the geopolitics of space. Nature News. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00727-x

x Tass.com. (n.d.). Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://tass.com/world/1431449

xi Tim Hepher, & Aishwarya Nair. (2022, March 7). Boeing suspends Russian titanium as Airbus keeps buying. Reuters. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-suspends-part-its-business-russia-wsj-2022-03-07/

xii Ibid

xiii Reuters. (2022, March 4). Canadian business jet maker Bombardier suspends all activities with Russian clients. Reuters. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/canadian-business-jet-maker-bombardier-suspends-all-activities-with-russian-2022-03-04/

xiv Jha, S. (2022, February 26). Russia halts space launches from ESA's French guiana in response to sanctions & isolation. Republic World. Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-halts-space-launches-from-esas-french-guiana-in-response-to-sanctions-and-isolation-articleshow.html

xv ExoMars suspended. ESA. (n.d.). Retrieved May 14, 2022, from https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/ExoMars_suspended