An annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was held in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, on 13th and 14th June 2019. This is the first international meeting held after Narendra Modi was elected as Prime Minister of India for the second time. In 2017, both India and Pakistan were accepted as permanent members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. With this decision, Russia and China dominated SCO was expanded to South Asia and problems in South Asia, especially between India and Pakistan got a platform other than SAARC. For India, the membership of SCO is important as it is an opportunity to establish itself as an ―Asian power‖ and to build connectivity with central Asia.
The background of Shanghai Cooperation Organization
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was established in 2001 with the initiative of China and Russia. Other member states of the organization are the Central Asian nations – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan who share border with Russia. Thus, it is a Eurasian organization made up of nations from Central Asia and Europe.
Russia and China, the hostile countries during the Cold War, took the initiative to establish an organization to address issues of borders and other conflicts with each other. Also, they had a common interest to challenge the dominance of US. The end of cold war and the collapse of the post-cold war Russia, the emergence of newly independent nations in Central Asia after the dissolution of USSR and their struggling economies provided an opportunity to US to integrate these countries into global system controlled by US and thus create a monopoly of power. Russia and China decided to form this union to take these Central Asian nations under their wings and thereby prohibit US from interfering into the internal affairs of these countries and thus evade US control of Eurasian politics.
Even the Central Asian nations that had become independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Union had some key questions. After Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, the terrorist groups started entering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia. The threat of terrorism entering their backyards and increasing extremist activities created the possibility of cooperation with each other and the big powers. Another recurring issue was the boundary disputes and internal unrest. The Central Asia with rich sources of mineral oil required peace and stability for their economic growth. SCO was formed with the main objectives of regional security, cooperation with respect of counterterrorism and extremism.
Why is this association important to India?
As noted above, regional peace and counter terrorism are the important agendas of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. India has raised the issue of the threat of global terrorism on the various platforms and have consistently appealed for cooperation of all nations. Similarly, India has shown time and again how Pakistan is responsible for this terrorism. Also, China and Central Asia are facing the consequences of terrorism born in Pakistan-Afghanistan. There is a need to take a strong cooperative action against those nations who promote and finance terrorism. Though global opinion is building up against Pakistan, Pakistan‘s approach does not seem to change. Hence, there is a need to increase pressure on Pakistan. As China, a permanent ally of Pakistan, has also backed Masood Azhar to be declared a terrorist, Shanghai Cooperation Organization can be considered as the perfect platform for this purpose.
Another important aspect of this organization for India is the recognition of India‘s role in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has been in turmoil for the past several years. India is trying to establish peace in Afghanistan. But hardly anyone has noticed the importance of India‘s role. The US and Russia want to underline their importance in this peace process.US tried to negotiate with the Taliban leaders, but it failed. Pakistan has never accepted and appreciated India‘s participation in the peace process in Afghanistan. Individual meetings held on the occasion of the summit may be important to convince Russia that the Afghan question will not be resolved through discussion with the Taliban. Also, the personal meetings help build an understanding between India, Russia and China and may create a positive approach about India‘s role in Pakistan, Afghanistan and terrorism.
India is taking rapid steps towards economic development. In that regard, two things are important for India. One is to expand India‘s communication network and the other is the availability of energy sources and mineral oil. India has conceptualized the International North South Transport Highway with the help of Russia to expand its network of communications. This highway will help India expand its trade with Central Asia. India is not part of the Belt and Road project. India was likely to lose the trade opportunities that arise from this, but the North South Transport Highway would provide trade opportunities for India. India‘s endeavour is to expand relations with Central Asian countries without the help of China and Russia. But given the dependence of these nations on China and Russia, it is a little difficult to establish these countries independently. For this, India needs to make consistent efforts. The platform of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization becomes important in solving such shared questions.
China dominates the region because of its greater trade with Central Asia. Given the trade war between China and the United States, it is certain that China will carry forward its belt and road project more quickly. Due to the belt and road project Chinese influence in the region is going to increase. The growing influence of China is a headache not only for India but China‘s growing importance is a concern for Russia and for Central Asian nations as well. Central Asian nations are sceptical about China‘s belt and road projects. India can support them to put their concerns on this platform. Though Russia-India relations are good, India has a concern over growing ties between Russia and Pakistan. As Russia and Central Asian nations value India in fighting China‘s domination, India can raise its concerns about Pakistan – Russia Relations on this platform. Another important benefit of this regional organization to India is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) route, an important project to meet India‘s energy needs. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization‘s platform can play an important role in initiating an agreement among the concerned nations.
An important question facing the world today is the tensions between Iran and the United States and the far-reaching consequences of this tension. Iran is the observer of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. India‘s relations with Iran have been strained due to US pressure. Dialogue can be initiated with Iran and Iran can be persuaded to solve the problem peacefully and emphatically. While such discussions do not solve the problem immediately, it does help to take definite steps.
A challenge for India?
There is no dispute that both India and Pakistan are members and that it is an important organization at the regional level working more efficiently than SAARC. While membership of this organization is beneficial to India, it faces many challenges.
Most importantly, with the help of this organization, both China and Russia can try to intervene in the bilateral conflict between India and Pakistan and the ongoing warring situation caused by the Kashmir issue. Relations between Russia and Pakistan have improved, and China is the all-weather friend of Pakistan. Further, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Gilgit area in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. India is opposed to this route as it passes through contentious terrain. It is important for China to complete this task as soon as possible because of the investment made by China. Both Russia and China can put pressure on India in favour of Pakistan. Moreover, for both, given the close ties between India and the United States, it is also a balance of power game whereby Russia-Pakistan-China unite to challenge the US-India equation. In short, India must remember that the Shanghai Organization is not only an opportunity for India but also a challenge.
