Introduction:
It is well-recognized by the scholars, strategists, academicians, political leaders, and other stakeholders of global politics and international relations that geographical factors majorly impact the policies of the countries and in the comprehensive development of those regions as well. The key terms such as political geography, strategic geography, geo-strategy, geo-politics, and geo economics, etc. are signifying the major role of geographical factors in international strategic issues or international affairs. The geography of the regions and terrains have been thoroughly studied by military strategists to conduct a successful military operation in that region. In the same way, the geographic location of a country provides an utmost advantage to that country in order to achieve national objectives in the international world order. On the other hand, some countries could not achieve those desired goals due to geographical disadvantage. In a simpler word, it can be named as the ‘revenge of geography'. The credit of the term ‘revenge of geography’ goes to ‘Robert B Kaplan’, he has used this word for the title of his book ‘The revenge of geography: what the maps tells us about coming conflicts and the battle against fate.’
This specific article has been written on the backdrop of the US-China rivalry. The article revolving around the theory of ‘regional power can become a global power’; it tried to revisit this theory in the context of China and Asian countries. The article tries to explain how the US could become a superpower and sustain its position due to its geographic location and being a regional power in Western hemisphere. On other side, why China will not become a superpower in the current international order because of its complex geographical location.
The article also tries to put forward a hypothesis that no Asian country can become a superpower and, further it tries to express explanations to it. The study has been conducted from a geopolitical and geographical perspective. But at the end of the article, author has also very briefly touched upon technological and geo-economic aspects due to their unavoidable significance.
Interdependence between regional power and global power:
Regional power is a country that projects influence in a specific region. (Yilmaz, 2017) If this power capability is unrivaled in its region, the state could rise to the level of regional hegemon (Yilmaz, 2017). The regional power display comparatively high military, economic, political, and ideological capabilities enabling them to shape their regional security agenda. Overall, the term regional power conveys capacity, hierarchy, influence, and aspiration (Yilmaz, 2017).
In international relations and global power politics, it is considered that a regional power or regional hegemon can be a superpower in the globe. Once the state achieves the position of dominance in its region, the particular state becomes free to manage it and expand its influence on global platforms to reshape the world order.
The comparison between the US and China: Geopolitical perspective:
A renowned American political scientist, John Mearsheimer, in his speech titled, ‘Why China cannot rise peacefully’ at a center for international policy studies, University of Ottawa, Canada, stated that, “The best way to survive is to be a regional hegemon, and make sure you have not a peer competitor” (Mearsheimer, 2012). America is a regional power, that is why it could become a superpower. If a state is not a regional power, then it is difficult and also not possible to become a superpower in the international order. He emphasized the importance of regional power to become a superpower. It is a confidence in that there is a natural advantage to any regional power to become a superpower. Because there is no one left to whom that state has to compete with and worry in terms of political and security threats within the region. The state has a natural advantage to maintain the law and order in that region by political, economic, and by military means if necessary.
As far as the USA is concerned, its geographic location is in the Northern American continent, where Canada to its north and Mexico to its south. These are the only two countries which are its neighbors. To the west of the US, there is the Northern Pacific Ocean and Northern Atlantic Ocean to its East. This is to be considered as an ideal strategic position. The border with Canada and Mexico is certainly more peaceful than any other country in the world. Secondly, these two countries are not considered hostile, which is again a strategic advantage to the US. The US has well managed its position and security of the Western hemisphere region. The famous Monroe doctrine of the US in 1823 emphasized and warned the European nations that the United states would not tolerate any occupation in the western hemisphere. (Monroe Doctrine, 1823) Since then, till today the US has successfully secured its position as a regional power in the region which led it to become a superpower in the globe.
On the other hand, China is geographically located in the Asian continent, it has fourteen neighboring countries and shares maritime borders around its periphery. Brantley Womack has written in his article titled ‘China between region and world’ that, China is the closest major power to many states, but it is not enclosed by any of their regions. China plays a major role in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, But China does not fit as a whole in any one of these regions. (Womack, 2009)
Most of the major countries like Russia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, India are major powers and developing countries in the region. These countries are politically, economically, and militarily sufficient enough for the security of their nation and maintained sufficient deterrence in the region. They are considered a major power in Asia and around the periphery of China. That is why China still could not be considered a regional power in Asia. It is also not recognized as a regional power in East Asia and the Southeast Asian region. Countries like Japan, S. Korea, N. Korea (Nuclear power), Russia (Nuclear power) are prosperous and powerful in terms of political, economic, and militarily up to-some extent in the region. The extra-regional powers like the US and European Union maintained healthy economic, political, and security relationships across Asia and in China’s context, particularly in East Asia. The role of ‘extra regional’ actors in Asia is a significant factor behind the balance of power in Asia. The US has maintained a security relationship with South Korea, Japan, and the Republic of China. The US has also provided nuclear umbrella to Japan, South Korea and Republic of China. The deployment of US naval forces in the Pacific region and the South China sea contains China’s hegemonic behaviors in Northeast Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. These are the major factors that are denying China to be considered as a regional power of Asia.
China is also facing internal separatist issues such as ‘Tibet independence’ and creation of ‘East Turkistan’. (China’s National Defence in New Era, 2019) The separatist movement are based upon their own separate geographical and ethnic factors. The ‘Taiwan independence’ is also a similar kind of separatist movement active in Taiwan. As per One China Policy, The Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. Thus, the Tibet, East Turkistan and Taiwan separatism are the core national security issues to the China based on geographic and social factors. China has acknowledged these issues as a serious threat to national sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of the country. China has mentioned about it in its national defence strategy 2019.
The path to becoming a global power starts once a particular country holds its political, economic and military dominance of that respected region. For the US, it was comparatively easier than China to hold the region. Because the US is not surrounded by multiple countries and a major power in the Western hemisphere. As well as, no other country than Canada is comprehensively developed to challenge the US’s hegemony in the western hemisphere. Also, it has no internal separatism issue based upon geography and ethnicity like China or any other Asian country. That is one of the reasons that the US could sustain its hold on the region and position as a superpower in the international world order.
Here are two examples that defends the theory and argument of ‘regional power can become a global superpower’. John Mearsheimer in his lecture on China also talked about Brazil. He said, “US will not be comfortable if Brazil emerges as a major power in the region (Western hemisphere), because it is not in US’s interest”. (Mearsheimer, 2012) The second example would be China’s economic and political enhancement in Pacific island countries and the Oceania region. The Atlantic and Pacific are the two major regions that are considered as a backyard of US. That’s why the US is not tolerating any action by China in these regions. China is expanding its geopolitical presence in the Pacific island countries and Oceania; eventually, with this presence, China would be able to challenge the US and control major international shipping lanes (ISLOCs) and sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) in the Pacific and that is considered as strategic threats to the US and its interests in the region. (Rand Corporation, 2019) To preserve its interests, the US would not let China to enhance its footprints in the Pacific.
The Cuban missile crisis in 1962 during the cold war is another prominent and classic example to understand US’s strategic sensitivity towards the western hemisphere. USSR tried to deploy nuclear missiles into Cuba. Which posed a serious threat to the national security of the US; also, it could lead to the decline of US’s position into the western hemisphere. Because of the role of extra-regional power in other’s region, cutoffs the leverage of existing regional power. In this context, US was regional power during that time and the USSR was an extra-regional power in the western hemisphere. Subsequently, after several tense days and subsequent talks USSR agreed to withdraw the missiles and dismantle the sites from Cuba. At a same time, it was decided between the two leaders that, the US would not attack Cuba, and secondly, the US would remove its Jupiter missiles from Turkey (Milestones, 1961-1968).US had to agree on terms put forwarded by USSR with regards to withdrawal of missiles from Turkey; which is quite clearly denoting that US is truly strategically sensitive towards western hemisphere.
Geography is an extremely in-negligible factor in global politics. The US has utilized its geographic position effectively. The strategic geographic position of the US is one of the key factors to become a superpower, and it will be till the end; because one cannot change its geography or its neighbors. On the other hand, China has a lower hand due to its geography and number of neighbors around it. China’s relations with its neighbors are not as good as the US’s. China is considered a hostile power in the region due to its hegemonic behavior in the South China Sea, and on the border with neighbors, especially with India. China’s economic practices are not transparent as required. China’s economic investment in South Asia, Africa, has raised concerns in the region, especially in the case of Sri Lanka's Hambantota port development and investment in Pakistan for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the banner of Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The Asian countries are not considering China as a regional power. However, on another hand, China’s strategic relationship with Russia, Pakistan, North Korea, and Cambodia is as good as the US’s relationship with India, Australia, Japan, South Korea in the region. There are possible chances that China could utilize its alliances as a proxy against its competitor in the region. (Mohite, 2021) E.g., Pakistan as a proxy against India, North Korea against South Korea and Japan, Cambodia against Vietnam, influence or military presence in Oceania could be used against Australia in future. This containment policy against regional competitors could work, then again, the chances are less because, Firstly, these allies are not much reliable and powerful enough to contain comparatively major countries like India, Japan, Australia, South Korea. Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand corporation and former adviser at the Pentagon, said, “China maintains zero alliances, and its partnerships are mostly with pariah states that are unreliable, unimportant or both” (Grossman, 2020). Secondly, it would cost huge financial expenditure, covert diplomacy, and time-consuming process. This probably would put China into a severe economic constraint; such economic constraints or diversifying economic investment will weaken China’s economy and for a second time that would be the upper hand to the US. So, on both sides, the US has the upper hand and a win-win scenario.
China’s strategic partners in Asia such as Pakistan, N Korea, Russia, Cambodia are not economically strong as the US’s strategic partners, E.g., India, Australia, Japan, S Korea, Republic of China. It is China that provides economic support to its strategic partners except Russia. Therefore, China’s struggle to become a superpower is not easy as it seems due to complex geography and geopolitical equations in Asia and the Indo-Pacific to a larger extent.
Cold war era and Asia:
For the sake of history, it is good to know that what happened in the era of the Cold War (1945-1991), between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union also known as the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics); the Soviet Union could not handle its periphery especially in Afghanistan, and some part of eastern Europe and also an internal rebellion in central Asia. The USSR also used to have long borders with neighboring countries. On one end, the USSR had to defend their western borders from NATO, Secondly, they had to secure their other adjacent borders and keep the fighting in Afghanistan. At the end of the cold war under the leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev, the President of the USSR introduced the economic and social policies such as Perestroika and Glasnost, but till then the time had gone, and eventually, the USSR came on the back foot, and they had to withdraw their military from Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan between the US-backed Afghan mujahidin and the USSR military was a major incidence for the USSR to defeat in a cold war. The economic condition of the USSR became weak and their strategic allies of the USSR at that time were not in a position to empower their economy (Mohite, 2021). At the same time, due to liberal economic policies of the US’s European allies were economically strong. In the contemporary world, China’s allies in Asia are in a similar economic position. China is not in such a wealthy alliance.
Today, Russia also has multiple regional relationships in Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and East Asia (Womack, 2009). It also has vast land borders and neighbors around its periphery like China. India is also not an exception to it. It has seven neighboring countries and also shares maritime borders. Like China, India is also dealing with similar kind of internal separatist issues in the region of Kashmir and North-East India. Thus, in future India probably would face similar geopolitical obstacles like China.
Geo-economics, Science and technology
Economics and technologies are the other two areas where geographical space does not much matter. A state can establish and enhance economic relations anywhere around the world. The economic inter-dependency within two states can be found within the region and also beyond the region. China’s trade relations are around the globe. China can well utilize its trade relations and economic interdependency to boost its economy. But, the geopolitical situation around the world is ‘anti-China’ due to its debt-trap diplomacy, transparency in financial transaction, its policies in the Hong Kong and belligerence behavior in the South China sea. The spread of Covid-19 from a Wuhan city of a China raised more anti-China sentiments in the world. Due to this, China’s economic growth will hamper. The major economic hubs like the European Union, US, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) would take advantage of it. There are probable chances that countries in the Indo-Pacific would gradually try to transfer their supply chain and manufacturing plants from the China to some other cost-effective and geopolitically friendlier countries in the region. This would cost a long-term effect on China’s economy.
In the 21st century, due to the advancement in science and technology, Cyber-Space, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) geographical factors don’t matter. AI and Cyberspace these are the areas where China can overtake the US. But, here again US has maintained its upper hand in the technical sector. As per a report by Macro Polo, 59 percent of research on AI takes place in the US. On the other hand, China is 11 percent. (Macro Polo, 2019) The same report also says that 60 percent of top-tier researchers across the globe do their research for US universities and companies. China is also generating top-tier researchers on AI. 29 percent of these researchers having received undergraduate degrees in China. But 56 percent of those researchers go on to study, work and live in the US. (Macro Polo, 2019) The US has maintained its upper hand in the technological, cyber, and in domain of AI. And it will be maintained by the US.
China can enhance its technical superiority, but due to geopolitical reasons, China would not get support from other states prominently western countries which are superior in technical domains. The violations of intellectual property rights in China raised a severe question around the world. Foreign companies operating in China have complained for years about copyright violations and being forced to transfer technology to China in exchange for market access, investment access, or regulatory approvals. (Ekrem, 2020) Such false practices are enhancing mistrust between investors in China. They would probably not go with technical co-operation with China. Ultimately it would be a setback for China in the domain of science and technology
Also, there are chances that the US would share critical technology with its strategic allies in Asia. Which definitely would be able to maintain a ‘strategic technological balance of power’ in Asia and especially around China’s periphery. The co-operation and strategic partnership between US-Australia-Japan-India is flourishing, which is popularly known as the ‘Quadrilateral security alliance’ in the Indo-Pacific region. The US is also enhancing its comprehensive ties with South Korea and Southeast Asian countries.
To conclude:
These are some examples that show how geographies matter in global politics. They also show how geographies impact on the development and comprehensive growth of countries and further to becoming a global power.
The geopolitical and geostrategic position of Asian nations is not in their favour like the US. Thus, the pathway to becoming a superpower in the international order is many times tougher for any Asian country in the world. The act of terror and violence by separatist movements on the basis of geography and on ethnicities within the Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, China, destabilizing their national power. These countries are engaging to deal with such basic issues. In that sense, Western hemisphere is comparatively stable.
Especially, China must understand this fact and should formulate its national policies accordingly. Because the end of the Cold War with the defeat and disintegration of the USSR is well-known to the world. China must understand and realize this geographical factor while fighting against the US. They must realize and cross-check their financial aspects accordingly. Because war or any geopolitical conflict against the US is not an economically viable option for a country like China and any other Asian countries which have multiple neighbors and hostile countries on its periphery. The USSR is a standard historical example in Asia.
Thus, to become a regional power in Asia, initially, China should win the hearts and minds of major Asian countries. China should turn the geopolitical situation into its favour. Otherwise, China will face enmity in its region and that would be the biggest obstacle to become a regional and eventually a global superpower;thus, the same assessment is applicable to the Asian countries.
References:
1) China’s National Defence in New Era, 2019, First edition, http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d084 08f502283d.html, Accessed Date- 7 th April 2021.
2) Ekrem, J. (2020) China’s historic rise in science and tech stirs criticism, https://sciencebusiness.net/international-news/chinas-historic-rise-science-and-tech stirs-criticism, Accessed Date- 25th March 2020.
3) Grossman, D, (2020), China’s friend are few and unreliable, https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-friends-are-few-and-unreliable, Accessed Date 19th March 2021.
4) Macro Polo (2019), The Global AI Talent Tracker, https://macropolo.org/digital projects/the-global-ai-talent-tracker/, Accessed Date- 21st March 2021.
5) Mearsheimer, J, (2012). Why China cannot rise peacefully? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXov7MkgPB4, Accessed Date- February 2021.
6) Milestone 1961-1968, The Cuban Missile crisis- October 1962, Office of the Historian, Dept of State, USA,https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile crisis#:~:text=NOTE%20TO%20READERS- ,The%20Cuban%20Missile%20Crisis%2C%20October%201962,came%20closest%20t o%20nuclear%20conflict., Accessed Date- 24th March 2021.
7) Mohite, D. (2021). Telephonic conversation with Prof. Dr. Dilip Mohite, former HOD, Department of Political Science, M.S University, Vadodara. March 2021.
8) Monroe doctrine, 1823, Our documents, https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=23, Accessed Date- 18th March 2021.
9) Womack, B. (2009) China between region and world, The China Journal, Vol-61, https://www.jstor.org/stable/20648043?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents, Accessed Date- 18th March 2020.
10) Yilmaz, S. (2017) Middle powers and regional power, Oxford bibliography, https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199743292/obo 9780199743292-0222.xml, Accessed Date- 18th March 2021.
