Abstract
The revival of the dormant quadrilateral strategic partnership group or quad was first proposed, after 10 years, by the then Prime Minister of Japan in 2007 due to their common interests of India, Japan, the USA and Australia in the Indo-Pacific region. Due to ever-changing and increasing digitalization and concerns on cybersecurity, today’s era has no doubt about cyberspace and its infrastructure standing as the central focus due to geostrategic compulsions leading to the formulation of foreign policy in a way that reframes the existing setting in place.
Quad alliance in the era where social media has the potential to escalate geopolitical tensions needs to have collective measures for the digital collective defence to ensure that peace and stability are maintained not only in the region but also in the whole world as the increasing digitalization is making nations rely upon each other on their needs.
Against such background, the paper focuses on the need to prioritize critical and emerging technologies and the challenges Quad faces in achieving its aim besides discussing how Quad can prevent cyberspace from becoming a domain of warfare where nations are engaging in offensive activities making it militarized and fear of potential threats to all connected networks including critical infrastructures that are connected to it.
Keywords – digital Quad, digitalized geopolitics, cyber alliance
Introduction –
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad was first initiated in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe comprising four maritime dependent democratic nations India, Japan, Australia and the USA, all having a common interest in the Indo-Pacific. The alliance which was more a strategic partnership went to dormant state for 10 years after Australia left the group till it expressed a wish to rejoin in 2017 owing to a shift in threat dimensions after technology showed its potential in shaping the geopolitics and social media, in particular, was able to fuel violence (Elsaesser, 2021), thereby becoming a factor in internal politics, economic development and also national security of a nation.
Cyberspace is the domain where all member nations can work together as practically speaking on maritime security it can be Indian navy ensuring security at Indian ocean while Japan and Australia can take care of the pacific and USA in the high seas can continue its patrolling in its aim of ensuring free movement that is in accordance of internationally recognized norms, but complexities that arise due to advancement in technology that is increasingly converting our daily used utilities into smart systems by connecting with cyberspace made Australia initiate the QTN to promote track two research and public dialogue on important issues of technology.
There are several pieces of evidence of nations developing and using offensive cyber weapons like Stuxnet, Flame and other malware (malicious-software) (Sterling, 2012) that has the potential of disrupting real-life functioning which is beyond just collecting data, as dependency on cyberspace increases the cybercriminals can break into transportation and critical infrastructure network causing in widespread chaos urging nations in deploying cyber soldiers in their defence. State-backed cyber soldiers are often referred to as the APT or Advanced Persistent Threat groups are responsible for safeguarding their ICT technologies and also indulge in offensive action on the adversary’s network shifting from the traditional domains of land, air and sea. Contrary to the regulations at high seas that are covered under-recognized UNCLOS (Bateman, 2020)3 there are no such agreed regulations on using the internet or information highway and being cheaper mode to inflict damage on the enemy it is increasingly used over other methods and there is the presence of Chinese malware in networks of Quad members, where India, United States, Australia and Japan all have faced similar attacks in past (Kaushik, 2020)4.
Quad and digitalization of geopolitics – 700
It is the digitalization of geopolitics that made Australia change its stand from being a close Pacific ally of China to investing heavily in initiating the QTN or Quad tech network (Hurst, 2020) at National Security College, Australian National University with partners from multiple stakeholders from not only form Quad countries the United States, India and Japan but across the world. This rapid digitalization is creating a big shift in the geostrategic environment, and as critical technologies are penetrating the industries it is reshaping the traditional functioning where we not only getting more efficient functioning but bringing us a threat in mind on the consequences if the software code that is driving the industrial machine gets compromised by an attacker.
The recent attack on cyber Iran’s nuclear plant after the deadly 2010 Stuxnet has revived the Israel-Iran crisis (Chulov, 2021) and the expulsion of Russian diplomats by the USA on the grounds of cyber attacks on solar winds and an alleged attempt in manipulating US presidential elections (“The US imposes sanctions on Moscow, expels 10 Russian diplomats”, 2021) has triggered fresh diplomatic standoff with Russia retaliated with expelling 10 diplomats and also additionally blacklisted 8 top officials (Teslova, 2021). This action is supplemented by the US’s close ally UK announcing sending warships in the black sea amid the rising Ukraine-Russia tensions (“UK warships to sail for the Black Sea in May as Ukraine-Russia tensions rise – Sunday Times | Reuters”, 2021).
This tension supplemented with the developing cordial relations between authoritarian nations Iran and China signing partnership deal on trade (Wenting, 2021) will hopefully in a matter of days include cyberspace with other authoritarian nations like Russian having similar opinion aimed in countering democratic Quad cyber alliance resulting in a race of fragmentation or balkanization of cyberspace (“Cyber balkanization and the Future of the Internets”, 2018). The difference in opinion has also made international bodies acting as proxies of superpowers where UN’s ITU (International Telecommunication Union) is accused to be working under influence of China where it increased its contribution to the UN to many folds (“Is China Contributing to the United Nations’ Mission? | ChinaPower Project”, n.d.) after the then US President Trump reduced contribution (Shendruk, Hillard & Roy, 2020) allowing China to have its diplomats across key positions in UN allowing China’s Belt and Road initiative included as a part of sustainable development goals besides facilitating the expansion of Huawei. China’s influence was also seen over WHO (World Health Organisation) during annual meetings (online) where it blocked words like Taiwan and Formosa (Taiwan was formerly called) (Everington, 2020). While US-initiated international body ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) for managing the domain names is accused to be influenced by the US even after making it open for a multi-stakeholder forum of governance (Finley, 2016).
Cyberspace escalations and QTN collective defence
Our increasing dependence on the information highway for our essentials has made governments increase their presence in the domain sometimes resorting to using it for carrying out offensive activities like espionage and other propaganda including election interference on daily basis. Cyberspace domain is now the battlefield for a tussle between nations where everyday social media war has potential to disrupt international relations, the recent Australia and China twitter war where China use morphed pictures to blame Australia (Ward, 2020) and also declined to apologize to Australia as demanded giving rise to tension in relations between two nations having heavy trade partnership.
Most of the day to day events now gets escalated to cyberspace where social media like Twitter and Face book act as a platform for conversations on trending social movements, from #Metoo to #Black Lives Matter the has tags have created awareness among people and now even the Myanmar’s military has shut down the internet social media platforms have raised their voices for that as well. There are also times when social media has initiated violent clashes by spreading false information thereby urging in mechanism to control the spread of fake news and to also prevent the state from carrying surveillance. Being a borderless domain to ensure deterrence the QTN can also engage with other similar nations like Britain’s D10 (Brattberg & Judah, 2020) focusing on 5G technology or creating a group with nations that have similar opinions against threats on the lines of Quad plus comprising nations the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan, France, and Sri Lanka (Hasija, 2021). The alliance can also include Taiwan which holds expertise in using social media to confine the impact of this virus through a well planned and systematic effort that helped in the proper distribution of masks by linking all government-affiliated pharmacies under a centrally digitalized platform (Chow, 2020).
Quad & Digital India
India remains pivotal in balancing Asian power politics and there can be attempts by other nations to ruin the relationship with other nations as it is very difficult in attributing attackers in cyberspace. As attacks on India’s critical infrastructure like on Kundankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) alleged by North Korea (Sircar, 2019) can be also an attempt by the Chinese for preventing the shift of North Koreans away from Chinese as India receives North Korean students for studying in India, the situation can also be another way round where these North Koreans who are generally considered to be expert in cyber affairs are using Indian servers to wage an attack on other nations displaying India as the attacker can impact international relations of India.
Similarly, it was also seen that Pakistan like always did not miss the opportunity in running propaganda against India using fake accounts resembling China on social media platform Twitter (Krishnan, 2020) when India and China were in a standoff resulting in Indian people expressing their anger on China on social media which actually was done by Pakistan. Among the Quad members India stands more vulnerable as the dependency on Chinese systems are more in industries and it can be possible to even penetrate air-gapped networks that are not connected to the internet (Hoffman, 2020) by compromising people who are associated with it that can be mapped with several means like analyzing calls, chats and data from other applications that have Chinese funding.
Banning selective Chinese applications can be the start but not the final step towards making the Indian network safe as already there are huge foreign investments in technology including on those applications which are having banking and personal details of Indians like Paytm etc. (Shah, 2020). During the India-China standoff, a US-based cybersecurity firm Recorded Future found that China was using its APT RedEcho to target the Power System Operation Corporation Limited (POSOCO) in India’s financial capital of Mumbai (Mihindukulasuriya, 2021) giving it an indication of the damage China can cause.
India being among the top countries receiving cyberattacks needs to promote its initiatives like Cyber Swacchta Kendra (Dogra, 2019) to expand to citizens of Quad members as well and to lead India’s National Cybersecurity Coordinator (NCC) at the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) in preparing a comprehensive cybersecurity framework, that includes protection to submarine cables and also satellite which stands as the main medium for connecting to the internet, the data flow happens only by either of two i.e. submarine cables and satellite which interestingly both are owned by private players. The emergence of low earth satellites (LEO) by SpaceX which is aimed at providing better internet to a region that remains poorly connected again can be a point of contention if the satellite lost its path or collide with other nation’s satellites.
Trust and challenges
The new Biden administration is supporting the USA’s presence in the Indo-Pacific region and Quad but at the initial period of his term, there was a mixed response when it comes to showing its support to allies where Biden’s defence advisor preferred to use Asia-Pacific over the term Indo-Pacific (Stashwick, 2021). The Biden administration has continued ban on un-trusted 5G vendors that includes Chinese state-supported Huawei (“Washington to ‘safeguard’ US from Huawei – Global Times”, 2021) and over a time has considered cyberspace as a crucial element of foreign policy, President Biden has also pushed for using technology over troops in his policy towards China (Wadhams, 2021).
Biden taking aggressive measures against Russian and at the same time conducting extensive high sea patrols in Indo-Pacific even challenging India’s maritime EEZ in the Indian ocean (Joshi, 2019) is also becoming challenging in trusting for India as India has to start a new beginning by overcoming the US non-cooperation of past wherein Kargil war it denied GPS of Pakistan, although India replied with deigning own NavIC but the loss due to non-cooperation was crucial (“NavIC: Two decades after the US spurned India in Kargil, country replies with desi GPS”, 2018).
US approach must not give a feeling of the US’s exclusive interest in only getting insights of Russian technology and not of becoming friends of India. As we have already seen it is a technology that didn’t stop another very strategically important nation Bangladesh from purchasing surveillance devices from a country i.e. Israel that it denies recognition in the paper (“Bangladesh bought spyware from Israeli surveillance company”, 2021).
Challenge for the Quad in the Quad tech network or as a group is the political opinion of its leaders now the legal initiatives or any developments that are being initiated will take at least a couple of years and there is an election due in Japan (“Japan PM Suga signals chance of calling a snap election – Asahi”, 2021) and Australia (“EPO 2021: Prime Minister Morrison likely to hold next federal election in 2022”, 2021) where the change in leadership can also indicate the is the huge diversity in terms of some of these like how it was with Australia that led to Quad getting dormant after it was first initiated in 2007 whereas for India the increasing digitalization will definitely include cyber alliance as a priority for any government that holds the power.
The difference in opinion also matters as India remains the top country in shutting down the internet but it is due to its neighbour Pakistan’s involvement in spreading hatred using social media. India needs to overcome the challenge and allow the citizens of Kashmir the much-needed access to the internet by preventing entry of Pakistani based cybercriminals and also Australia and United States need to continue to focus on the foreign expansion of China through its five eyes program instead of conducting surveillance on its own citizens (Martin, Donaldson & Bolongaro, 2020).
India also has to consider planning for its inland water supply as China is increasingly building dams on the river Brahmaputra for producing electricity can also be turned into a flood making machine if waters are released to the low lying northeastern region of India.
Recommendation and Proposal
The Quad can work on the following:
• Initiating a cyber threat intelligence framework with all members
• Creating fact checking monitoring mechanism
• Collaborating on AI related researches to prevent using of deep fake in ruining international politics.
• Conducting regular exercises with prior intimation in networks to prevent attack by belligerent nations of the alliance, it is also to be kept in mind as penetrating network without consent can ruin the relations similar to how US navy entered Indian ocean EEZ without informing Indian navy citing free movement.
• Establishment of digital early warning control system
• Push for deciding on threshold limit
• The ban on Chinese state owned Huawei might have given a setback for their china standards 2035 but have not stopped, the Quad needs to make their own standards and push for countries using that including to those who are debt trapped by China.
• Creating a multi stakeholder team for addressing zero day vulnerability
• Install dedicated cables connecting head quarters of member nations for secure communication.
• To not limit in just preventing use of Huawei equipments but to ensure their non influence in other nations as well through which where they can possibly compromises the security.
As there are already multiple data governance frameworks that are prevailing in the borderless domain, with the booming of digital economies in the region a new data governance framework including legal norms can be initiated at the national and regional level by including other like-minded countries in the region also ensuring that access to the internet, stable internet and digital literacy to people in the region thereby reducing the digital gap.
Conclusion
Quad might not be an exclusive cybersecurity alliance but have cybersecurity included in its area of international cooperation and collaboration besides other two arenas of maritime and economic security, interesting the widely used medium for transferring data i.e. submarine cables actually falls under maritime and economy is getting digital now, therefore, the group can now push for a cyberspace governance architecture as there is no unified cyberspace governance framework in place. The Quad comprising democratic nations can push for sustainability in cyberspace and also ensuring balance of power with rapidly emerging critical technologies and as these four countries are challenged by expansionist China in both maritime and cyberspace their approach to formulating policy can be a roadmap for global regulation. For keeping pace with the changing dimensions of the threat it is necessary to initiate collective cyber defence under QTN and work on the application of international law on the information highway by including all stakeholders that can define the threshold upon which there can be an all theatre retaliatory action on the perpetrator. The collective defence can focus on ensuring security to its own network and sharing best practices among member states by conducting regular exercises to implement a secured network and ensure continued deterrence over the enemy.
As China has trade interest with all the Quad members and it cannot afford a war with any Quad members it is, therefore, more an effort by Quad to prevent the information highway from getting flooded with propaganda and manipulating the international politics as well as domestic policies by denying access to critical networks and ensure freedom of navigation in the information highway.
References
1. Elsaesser, C. (2021). How social media turns online arguments between teens into real-world violence. Retrieved 9 April 2021, from https://theconversation.com/how-social-media-turns-online-arguments-between-teens-into-real-world-violence-155613
2. Sterling, B. (2012). ‘Flame,’ a cyberweapon that makes Stuxnet look cheap. Retrieved 9 April 2021, from https://www.wired.com/2012/05/flame-a-cyberweapon-that-makes-stuxnet-look-cheap
3. Bateman, S. (2020). Freedom of navigation and the Law of the Sea – Policy Forum. Retrieved 4 April 2021, from https://www.policyforum.net/freedom-of-navigation-and-the-law-of-the-sea/
4. Kaushik, M. (2020). 200% rise in cyberattacks from China in a month; India tops hit list post Galwan face-off. Retrieved 3 April 2021, from https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/200-percent-rise-in-cyberattacks-from-china-in-a-month-india-tops-hit-list-post-galwan-face-off/story/407806.html
5. Hurst, D. (2020). Australia spends $500,000 to strengthen tech ties with Quad allies amid China tension. Retrieved 10 April 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/23/australia-spends-500000-to-strengthen-tech-ties-with-quad-allies-amid-china-tension
6. Chulov, M. (2021). Israel appears to confirm it carried out cyberattack on Iran nuclear facility. Retrieved 13 April 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/11/israel-appears-confirm-cyberattack-iran-nuclear-facility
7. US imposes sanctions on Moscow, expels 10 Russian diplomats. (2021). Retrieved 16 April 2021, from https://www.timesnownews.com/international/article/us-announces-sanctions-against-moscow-expels-10-russian-diplomats/745582
8. Teslova, E. (2021). Russia expelling 10 US diplomats in retaliation for sanctions. Retrieved 16 April 2021, from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russia-expelling-10-us-diplomats-in-retaliation-for-sanctions/2211577
9. UK warships to sail for Black Sea in May as Ukraine-Russia tensions rise- Sunday Times | Reuters. (2021). Retrieved 18 April 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/uk-warships-sail-black-sea-may-ukraine-russia-tensions-rise-sunday-times-2021-04-18/
10. Wenting, X. (2021). China-Iran 25-year deal not aimed at any country: Iranian envoy – Global Times. Retrieved 16 April 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221192.shtml
11. Cyberbalkanization and the Future of the Internets. (2018). Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://medium.com/skycoin/cyberbalkanization-and-the-future-of-the-internets-f03f2b590c39
12. Finley, K. (2016). The Internet Finally Belongs to Everyone. Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://www.wired.com/2016/10/internet-finally-belongs-everyone/13. Ward, A. (2020). China and Australia are in a nasty diplomatic spat over a fake tweet — and real war crimes. Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://www.vox.com/22021226/australia-china-afghanistan-tweet
14. BRATTBERG, E., & JUDAH, B. (2020). Forget the G-7, Build the D-10. Retrieved 1 April 2021, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/10/g7-d10-democracy-trump-europe/
15. Hasija, N. (2021). A Quad-plus-6 Indo-Pacific strategy – Taipei Times. Retrieved 18 April 2021, from https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/04/16/2003755778
16. Chow, V. (2020). Audrey Tang: Taiwan’s Digital Minister Challenges Convention – Variety. Retrieved 8 April 2021, from https://variety.com/2020/digital/asia/audrey-tang-taiwan-digital-minister-1234833575/
17. Sircar, S. (2019). Exclusive: N Korea Stole Data From Kudankulam Attack, Says Expert. Retrieved 3 April 2021, from https://www.thequint.com/news/india/kudankulam-nuclear-power-plant-cyber-attack-malware-north-korea-stole-information-data
18. Krishnan, A. (2020). Pakistanis behind ‘Chinese’ info war on India-China border standoff. Retrieved 3 April 2021, from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pakistanis-behind-chinese-info-war-on-india-china-border-standoff/article32255760.ece
19. Hoffman, C. (2020). The Ultimate Defense: What Is an Air Gapped Computer?. Retrieved 4 April 2021, from https://www.howtogeek.com/687792/the-ultimate-defense-what-is-an-air-gapped-computer/
20. Shah, P. (2020). How China dominates tech investments in India. Retrieved 4 April 2021, from https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/how-china-dominates-tech-investments-in-india/article31380773.ece
21. Mihindukulasuriya, R. (2021). RedEcho, ShadowPad — how Chinese hackers may have accessed critical Indian computer systems. Retrieved 3 April 2021, from https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/redecho-shadowpad-how-chinese-hackers-may-have-accessed-critical-indian-computer-systems/614523/
22. Dogra, S. (2019). India Launches ‘Cyber Swachhta Kendra’ to Protect Citizens From Cyber Threats. Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://www.news18.com/news/tech/india-launches-cyber-swachhta-kendra-to-protect-citizens-from-cyber-threats-1351972.html
23. Stashwick, S. (2021). The Asia-Pacific is Biden’s Top Security Priority. Retrieved 7 April 2021, from https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/the-asia-pacific-is-bidens-top-security-priority/
24. Washington to ‘safeguard’ US from Huawei – Global Times. (2021). Retrieved 8 April 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214308.shtml
25. Wadhams, N. (2021). Biden Putting Tech, Not Troops, at Core of U.S.-China Policy. Retrieved 12 April 2021, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/biden-putting-tech-not-troops-at-center-of-u-s-china-strategy
26. Joshi, M. (2019). India ‘Chased’ a Chinese Ship from its EEZ but US Intrusions Go Unchallenged. Retrieved 2 April 2021, from https://thewire.in/world/india-china-ship-andaman-eez-unclos-us
27. NavIC: Two decades after US spurned India in Kargil, country replies with desi GPS. (2018). Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/navic-two-decades-after-us-spurned-india-in-kargil-country-replies-with-desi-gps/articleshow/64643986.cms
28. Bangladesh bought spyware from Israeli surveillance company. (2021). Retrieved 2 April 2021, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/2/bangladesh-bought-surveillance-equipment-from-israeli-company
29. Japan PM Suga signals chance of calling snap election – Asahi. (2021). Retrieved 10 April 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-politics-suga-idUSKBN2BU056
30. EPO 2021: Prime Minister Morrison likely to hold next federal election in 2022. (2021). Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://www.ceda.com.au/NewsAndResources/News/Government-Regulation/EPO-2021-Prime-Minister-Morrison-likely-to-hold-ne
31. Martin, P., Donaldson, K., & Bolongaro, K. (2020). It’s like ‘return to the Cold War’ as Five Eyes spy alliance trains focus on China. Retrieved 5 April 2021, from https://theprint.in/world/its-like-return-to-the-cold-war-as-five-eyes-spy-alliance-trains-focus-on-china/527946/.
