The first summit (virtual) of the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and US on 12th March, 2021with the ‘Joint Statement’ titled as “The Spirit of the UAD” has brought the QUAD to geopolitical limelight. It underscores their “commitment to quadrilateral cooperation” and “shared vision for the free and open ndo-pacific”. The leaders of the QUAD has shown a new enthusiasm in strengthening their cooperation in defining their shared challenges to promote a ule-based rder based on rule of law, freedom of navigation, democratic values and territorial integrity. Besides, it also underlined the imperative of cooperation in uch shared challenges like cyberspace, critical technology, counterterrorism, infrastructure investment and maritime security for a rule- based maritime order n the region.
The shared intent of the leaders declares that “On this historic occasion of March 12, 2021, the first-ever leader-level summit of the QUAD, we pledge to strengthen our cooperation on defining the challenges of our time. The journey of the grouping has been through numerous domestic and extraneous factors and challenges. The origin of the QUAD can be traced to ‘Tsunami Core Group’, of Australia, India, Japan and USA during 2004-2005 for their coordinated Tsunami response cooperation. The idea of cooperation among these four countries gained currency again with Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe’s speech “Confluence of the Two Seas”in his address to the Indian Parliament on 22nd August, 2007, when he said “The Pacific and the Indian Ocean are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity. A ‘broader Asia’ which broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form.”
It had node of support with the Indian Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh during his visit to Japan later in December, 2006. Both the leaders endorsed the need and relevance of dialogue between India and Japan and other like-minded countries in the region on issues of mutual interests. Thus, Quadrilateral Dialogue Initiative based on the concept of democratic peace began with its inaugural meeting on 25th May, 2007 in Manila on the side-lines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
The diverse perspective, absence of sustainable substance and action in the face of Chinese opposition QUAD failed to gain necessary steam. Such references as ‘Axis of Democracies’, ‘Concert of Democracies’ and ‘Security Diamond’ and so on were enough to attract the Chinese reaction which didn’t allow the convergence of policy perspective on the issues of collaboration and dissipated into oblivion. In December, 2012, Shinzo Abe in his article “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond” further echoed the interconnectedness of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. He said that “Peace, stability and freedom of navigation in the Pacific Ocean are inseparable from peace, stability and freedom of navigation of the Indian Ocean. Developments connected to each are more closely connected than ever.”
But the QUAD rebirth, a decade later in 2017, represents a deeper sense of cooperation which has led to the first ever QUAD summit and the ‘Joint Statement’ which has defined its areas of concerns without touching the sensitive issues directly as well as it has identified the areas of immediate cooperation and collaboration to ensure substance to their shared vision for the region. In a joint opinion piece, the QUAD leaders reiterated their vision and commitment about their concern for emerging shared and complex geopolitical challenges which is being thrown up by new technologies, climate change and the pandemic underway. They expressed their shared willingness to strengthen their cooperation take on these challenges global implication including the Indo-pacific,
Challenges and Concerns
Though there is no mention of rise of China and its implications as a strategic challenge to the geopolitical landscape of the region and the interests of the QUAD members, the trajectory of evolution and use of such issues like support to UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLAS) and collaboration for maritime security to meet the challenges to the rule-based maritime order in the East and the South China Seas are telling manifestation of shared concerns of the QUAD members to the matter. Therefore it attracted the Chinese attention and the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Zhao Lijian responded to a question in the wake of the QUAD summit that “We hope relevant countries will follow the principles of openness, inclusiveness and win-win results, refrain from close and exclusive “cliques” and act in a way that is conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity.”
The Chinese perception towards the QUAD is that it the part of strategy of alliance formation to deal with rise of China and contain it with sharing economic and diplomatic burden. The present QUAD framework was designed by Trump administration to manage competition with China. “Prompted by the intent to contain China, the Biden administration has continued this aggressive and confrontational posture.” The Chinese perceive the development as a strategic concern as it is at loggerheads with its perception of South China Sea as its strategic maritime backyard. Besides, around 80 percent of its energy supply and 95 percent of trade with West Asia and Africa pass through the Indian Ocean routes. The security of sea routes and safeguarding its interests assumes strategic priority and the so-called Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ in the Indian Ocean is viewed as part of that strategy. There is growing voices of support in China about formation of an Indian Ocean Fleet as a bulwark of safeguarding its trade and energy security.
Chinese ‘string of pearls’ are perceived as ‘string of threat’ and a strategic challenge to Indian maritime security strategy in the Indian Ocean. In such scenario, the QUAD summit and the subsequent evolution is bound to evoke Chinese reaction. The latter has already voiced that such grouping will have implications for Indian standing in other regional organizations like BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The Chinese perceives that with growing India’s tilt towards US regional groupings like BRICS and SCO are falling into stagnation. India is attaching more importance to the QUAD framework and gradually US Indo-pacific Strategy to counterbalance and contain China. Thus, “India has become a negative asset of these groupings”.
These are difficult challenge in the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-pacific region and wider global level at large. The QUAD is therefore viewed by China as an emerging strategic challenge to its so-called ‘core interests’. It may lead to potential Russian-China close cooperation in the wake of QUAD syndrome and can have long-term geopolitical consequences in the region and beyond. In an answer to a question during press conference Mr Wang Yi, the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, said that “China and Russia have stood shoulder to shoulder and worked closely to combat both the coronavirus and the “political virus”. China and Russia standing together will remain a pillar of world peace and stability. The more unstable the world is, the greater the need for carrying forward China-Russia cooperation. China and Russia should be each other’s strategic support, development opportunity and global partner. This is both an experience gained from history and an imperative under the current circumstances.”
Still, the QUAD holds immense potential for India as an emerging power with genuine capacity and aspirations. The QUAD based cooperation to hold the Chinese expansion under strategic check to maintain peace and security in the Indo-pacific region which none of the QUAD member alone is capable of. It can help India to build enhanced capacity in investment, connectivity and development of ‘blue economy’ as an additional booster to its economic and trade vision and interests in Indian Ocean rim countries under the SAGAR Doctrine (Security and Growth for all in the Region).
Malabar Exercise, 2020
The political and diplomatic unity demonstrated with the QUAD Summit and the ‘Joint Statement’, manifests that the geopolitical equations in 2021 are perceptibly different from the time of QUAD of 2007. The Malabar Exercises started as a bilateral naval exercise between India and US in 1992. In the backdrop of the pandemic, the quadrilateral participation of Australia, India, Japan and US in the 24th Edition “was reflective of the commitment of the participating countries to support a free, open and inclusive Indo-pacific as well as rules-based international order”. Thus, Malabar, 2020 is a marked show of unity of QUAD and strong message of their synergy and identity of interests. This signifies in a profound manner that democratic values are firming up their capacities for the defense of their security interests and prepared take on the challenges in the Indo-pacific region. In the wake of increasing defense cooperation between India and Australia, participation of the Royal Navy of Australia is an important development. The participants of Malabar 2020 are geared to safety and security in their shared maritime domain. “They collectively support free, open and inclusive Indo-pacific and remain committed to a rule based international order”.
It also makes it clear that India holds paramount significance in the geopolitical component of democracies and a powerful actor of maritime security in the region. Thus both the politico-diplomatic and maritime dimension of the group makes QUAD a force to be reckoned with firmer determinations and potential institutionalisation in the years ahead.
Opportunity for India
The Indo-pacific, for India, is mainly a maritime construct, with geographical extent from Africa to the Pacific, the combination of the two seas, Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean in tandem with the Japanese vision. With this India is in pursuit of projecting as a maritime power in this region to grow as a hub of blue economy. This is manifests with the Keynote address of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Shangri la Dialogue in 2018, when he reiterated his concept of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) as an inclusive construct of Indo-pacific that is free and open and founded upon an inclusive cooperation and rule-based collaborative order.
India is focused in its drive to develop the maritime domain as vital sector of economic development and therefore is an attractive arena investment attraction. In his address to the East Asia Summit on 4th November, 2019, Prime Minister Modi proposed an “Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative” for creating safe and secure shared maritime domain in the region with the partnership of interested countries in the region aimed at enhancing maritime security, sustainability of maritime resources and disaster management.
In the recent “Maritime India Summit” on 2nd March, 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India is geared to facilitate investment and development in the maritime sector as part of the government drive for ‘Aatmnirbhar Bharat’. The Prime Minister released the e-book of ‘Maritime India Vision-2030’ which aims at making the Indian maritime industry at par with top global benchmarks in next ten years. It is focused on enhancing maritime safety and capabilities for security, rescue and environment protection. “The Prime Minister invited the world to come to India and be a part of India’s growth trajectory. India is very serious about growing in maritime sector and emerging as a leading Blue Economy of the world”.
The QUAD process, therefore, is a crucial framework for India to harness its maritime potential as a leading Blue Economy of the world and core actor of cooperation for maritime security and stability in the Indo-pacific and route to its global prominence. A prudent pursuit in the QUAD framework based on rule-based maritime order can bring about desirable outcomes for its economic vision and global power aspirations.
First, the willing approach of other QUAD members- Australia, Japan and the US to join the group and work together to deal with their shared challenges with shared strategic cooperation for an intended shared future is an opportunity in the changing geopolitical landscape of the region with implication for wider international order.
Second, QUAD provides a desired platform to project India’s willingness to join hands with established powers to face such shared global challenges as health crisis like the pandemic underway, future medical research and preparedness strategies, response cooperation and production capacities in consonance with its global aspirations and visions.
Third, joint cooperation under QUAD process as outlined in the ‘Joint Statement’ towards climate change, critical technologies and security would usher in desired capacity building for enhancing its strength as well as match its potential stature.
Fourth, the rise of China is a reality and a strategic challenge to India’s own vision which is multi-dimensional in nature and contents. The QUAD can be prudently used to elevate India as aviable alternative or competent competitor to resuscitate and pursue its ‘Look East’ policy vision in South East Asia.
Fifth, an appropriate capacity building arena to pursue its ‘Extended Neighbourhood’ and Look West Policy’ in the Gulf, wider West Asia and Africa in the face of Chinese expansion in these strategically important regions for India.
Sixth the QUAD’s shared expression for rule-based international order and free passage in sea can led to a cooperative communication and connectivity alternative to BRI to avoid overdependence on china in the future.
Seventh, the emerging QUAD-plus is an additional opportunity for India to build global network of security with European powers like France joining the group.
The Indian approach towards QUAD is based on the idea of democratic cooperation of all in the region. It amply manifests with Prime Minister Modi’s opening remark to the summit that “Our agenda today- covering areas like vaccines, climate change and emerging technologies makes the QUAD a force for global good. We will work together, closer than ever before, for advancing our shared values and promoting a secure, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific. It will now remain an important pillar of stability in the region.” In his recent responses during ‘Raisina Dialogue’ the External Affairs Minister, Dr S Jaishankar said that QUAD is a coalition of like minded countries for their shared benefits where both bilateral and multilateral mechanism has fallen short. He further added emphatically that QUAD represents the contemporary imperative “for our national benefit, for our regional benefit and for global benefit.”
In brief, India must remain focussed to its core interests and visions in this crucial strategic region in a broader framework of maritime capacity building in terms of port development, connectivity and investments in consonance with its SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) Doctrine and goal of becoming a leading Blue-Economy in the Indo pacific. Thus, measured and appropriate response of India to the geopolitical interests of other QUAD members and pragmatic participation in the evolving shared vision and commitment will surely spur its pursuit as a factor of security and stability in the Indo-pacific region with profound global influence in the emerging world order.
