Introduction
The author is a researcher based in Denmark with special interest in International Relations and diplomacy. India embarked on the diplomatic relation with Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) in 1973. The relationship with both the countries had been a low-profile affair in international Pulind Samant is trained in Labor Studies & Human Rights. He is an eminent HRM professional and frequent contributor in International Relations. relations. But, it seems everything suddenly changed, and the relationship came on the spot light during the visit of US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson to India in October 2017. During the joint press conference answering to the question of one the journalists Indian External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj forthrightly stated that India has no intention to cut diplomatic ties with North Korea. What was more interesting in her statement is the reason behind nursing the stated intention; which is, that there should be some friendly countries of US in touch with North Korea to keep a channel of communication open. So, what is India intending to do? Is US also concurrent with India’s policy towards North Korea, or is US also ready to allow India to play a role in minimizing the tension in the Korean peninsula? This article will try to analyse and answer what role India can play in the Korean peninsula and what should be India’s strategic objective?
DPRK outreach to India
Earlier this year in June 2017, North Korean ambassador to India Kye Chun Yong gave an interview to a private TV channel where he talked about India’s relation with DPRK. It is very rare to see a North Korean representative interacting with media, and this would not have been possible without the sanction from the highest level of the North Korean regime, quite possibly from Kim Jong Un himself. The ambassador talks about the good relation between India and DPRK and especially about ‘Make in India’ initiative from PM Modi. This can be construed that DPRK wants to have a close economic relation with India as the country is under extreme international economic sanctions.
Chinese Chequer
North Korea has huge economic dependence on China. On the other hand, China had been using DPRK as a tool to blackmail international community, making the international community believe that it has the leverage to bring DPRK at the negotiating table and dissuade DPRK from conducting nuclear and missile tests. So far, the world and especially US have been heavily relying on China to control N. Korea. But, we have seen that attempts of US through Chinese mediation have failed to stop N. Korea from pursuing its nuclear and missile programme. This is because, perhaps US have forgotten that N. Korean nuclear and missile programme had not been possible without the Chinese help [mostly economic and financial, and technological help to an extent]. On the other hand, China is using N. Korea to divert world’s attention and especially US strategy to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region. So, the entire US strategy is misplaced at the first place. The focus should be to pull N. Korea out of the Chinese influence. Here, US is making the same mistake which it had already made in Iran (by thinking to undo the US-Iran Nuclear deal under Obama administration) and Afghanistan (by relying on Pakistan to bring stability in Afghanistan). Today, US is already deeply engaged in Afghanistan, and if it opens a new front in Korean peninsula then it would be counterproductive to the whole American Indo-Pacific strategy. If we see the geography of East and NorthEast Asia; then all countries Japan, South Korea (S. Korea) and Taiwan are technologically and economically one of the advanced nations of the world. For the sake of hypothesis, if North Korean and South Korea unite then it would be a severe challenge to China technologically, economically and even militarily. After all the two Koreas are the same people with shared history, culture and language. Further, this entire region would be under US influence. So, why would China be the part of solution in the Korean peninsula? In fact, China is the part of problem; just like Pakistan is the part of the problem in Afghanistan.
North Korean Nuclear Program
The world today especially US, west and its East Asian allies are worried about North Korean nuclear weapons and its missiles. But, they are not asking how come a country as poor as N. Korea got its hand over the nuclear weapons and missiles. Soon after the Korean war, DPRK started its pursuit of the nuclear weapon. Initially, it did seek Chinese help (4), but, was refused by Mao Zedong. So, it embarked on an indigenous weapons program (4). Having denied by the Chinese, it went for help to the Soviet Union where it got its first nuclear breakthrough which resulted in setting up of first nuclear reactor by the Soviet help in 1964. In the years to follow the North Koreans started aggressive nuclear pursuit and managed to get help from some Belgian scientists about the design of a plutonium separation (4). Over the period of next decade and half they started experimenting and using it. This helped them to start producing weapon grade plutonium for nuclear warhead. In 2004, DPRK head Kim Jong -II invited a delegation of western nuclear scientists to visit its plutonium extraction facility which was testified later by and American scientist Dr. Siegfried Hecker (made total seven visits to N. Korea) who was one of the invitees at the said facility. And, couple of years later in 2006 North Korea conducted its first nuclear test (4) .
Later, the N. Korean scientists started working on uranium based weapons. Here again, DPRK required a help from a credible source which came in the form of Pakistan. The help came from the infamous Khan network who had been running a nuclear proliferation ring. A. Q. Khan and [Pakistan regime] went into a barter agreement where DPRK would provide technological know-how of ballistic missile technology to Pakistan and Pakistan would provide enrichment technology for weapons-grade uranium (4) . In 2010, Dr. Siegfried Hecker was again invited to North Korea, and this time he was taken to a uranium enrichment facility where he found 2000 centrifuges to produce weapons-grade uranium (4). It should be noted that Pakistan also got entire help for its nuclear program from China. So, it’s evident that there is a China, Pakistan and North Korea nexus which is required to be broken. This is the real axis of evil with a geographical continuity (both Pakistan and N. Korea share border with China). Both Pakistan and North Korea are now problem for US, but both enjoy immense support from China. Now, Pakistan relies more on China to avoid its international isolation and so is North Korea.
Why DPRK wants Nuclear weapons?
Nuclear weapon was used as a weapon to stop any military conflict or war during the cold war. It is a weapon to stop or prevent a conflict, it’s not a weapon for use. But, this lies true for great powers. So, why North Korea requires a nuclear weapon? For small countries and particularly security states nuclear weapon is more a weapon for pride and symbolism. This even becomes a necessity for corrupt regimes and brutal dictatorships, e.g. Pakistan and North Korea. North Korea perfectly fits into this argument and aggressively pursues it primarily for three reasons: a) to protect its regime. b) for domestic consumption by creating an external threat so that people don’t raise demands for social welfare and development programs. c) To use as a bargain chip in international diplomacy (4) .
But, after the demise of the Soviet Union DPRK lost a close ally overnight from where it got a lot of economic and technical help. The Chinese also did not help DPRK much because Chinese were focussing more on their economic rise and hence worked together with South Korea (S. Korea) for their economic and technological growth. These events led N. Korea to enter dialogue with the US. The dialogues began in 1994 under which N. Korea will stop its plutonium program and in return US will provide two light water reactors which could be used for peaceful purpose of electricity generation (8). This agreement collapsed in 2002 under George W. Bush where the Bush administration accused N. Korea of cheating with the agreement and N. Korea accused US of delay in providing light water reactors (LWR) (8) .
Later, after much deliberations and in consultation with China, N. Korea agreed six party talks which comprised N. Korea, S. Korea, China, Russia, Japan and USA. The talks began in August 2003 in Beijing (8). But, US sanctioned North Korean trading entities and Banco Delta Asia of Macau which resulted in N. Korea conduct multiple missile tests and first nuclear test in July 2006 (8). Further, UNSC passed resolution 1718, and asked N. Korea to abandon missile and WMD program and join six-party talks (8). Later, N. Korea agreed to shutdown Yongbyon reactor (plutonium based) when US and Japan committed to supply 50,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil. But, N. Korea agreed to shutdown plutonium reactor because it had developed technology for uranium based weapons by producing fissile material from uranium centrifuge, thanks to the support and help from A.Q. Khan (Pakistan) network. It can be said that both N. Korea and US have made mistakes, but the onus lies more on US as it had been slow in securing energy requirements of N. Korea including not providing two LWRs.
US Sanctions
Since, the Trump administration came to power, it focussed on putting end to N. Korean nuclear weapons and missile program. For this, it relied too much on China and President Xi. But, after seeing no change in DPRK stance US started taking some steps on its own. US initiated sanctions on any company or entity dealing with DPRK. President Trump increased the power of US Treasury Office in September 2017 and authorised to take punitive sanctions on any company trading with North Korea (2). This can bring huge pressure on China as many Chinese companies and banks are trading with N. Korea, and China comprises 90% of total N. Korean trade (2). This will further hit many North Korean shell companies conducting trade through China. But, these sanctions might not deter N. Korea in pursuing WMDs because N: Korea has survived domestic famine and poor economic conditions and still pursued the weapons program. So, N. Korea is used to such adverse economic and financial conditions here in the form of economic sanctions. Further, the small Chinese banks which deal with N. Korea do not have much exposure to international financial system, and hence might survive the US sanctions (2)
India’s role and its strategic interest
India has a very low-profile relationship with N. Korea. The last foreign office consultation between both countries took place in April 2016. The N. Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong visited India in 2015 (1) . India was the third largest trading partner of N. Korea after China and Russia in 2015. The bilateral trade between both countries is very modest where India imported goods worth $ 88 million from N. Korea and exported goods worth $ 111 million (5). The exports mainly comprise of medicine and food grains. Under World Food Program – 2016 India provided soybean worth $ 1 million. In 2011, India provided food assistance worth $ 1 million dollar under World Food Program (WFP).
If we look at the geography of N. Korea, the it has neighbours namely, S. Korea, China, Japan and Russia and US being extra regional power. Incidentally, these are the countries also involved in Six Party Talks. Of late, India has now started the “act east policy.” Further, India has good relationship with all nations which are N. Korea’s neighbours (except China, but India has a sound economic relationship with China) including US. So, India is in a sweet spot in this situation. Not to forget, that India was among the few countries which was invited for briefing by Pyongyang after it conducted its sixth nuclear test on 3rd September 2017. This gives enough signal to India that it has a role to play in the crisis. I think India should take a lead in lowering the tension in the peninsula. Here, the Indian goal should be to take N. Korea out of the Chinese influence. For which a few measures must be taken by India in collaboration with the N. Korean neighbours including Russia and US. According to reports from Technical University of Germany some Ukaraine based Russian companies have supplied missile engines to North Korea as these companies are desperate to sell technologies due to their poor financial conditions. Here, India can use the Russian influence to deter these companies to sell technologies and hardware to N. Korea.
As I mentioned in my introduction, referring to the North Korean Ambassador’s interview where he praised PM Modi for his “Make in India” initiative. India can boost its “Make in India” program by acting as a fulcrum between N. Korea, S. Korea and even Japan and Taiwan. The recent example is when the S. Korean automobile giant Kia Motors in April 2017 decided to open a new manufacturing unit in India worth $ 1.1 billion investment, which was due to the rising anti- Korea sentiment in China and due to slowing Chinese growth (5). India can boost its electronic manufacturing base by collaborating with Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan in terms of high end technologies and the raw materials (e.g. Rare earth metals which are used in high end electronic device like mobiles, and laptops (6)) for these industries can be imported from N. Korea. This will create economic interdependence with India being at the centre which will help reduce tension and will further open avenues for N. Korea to diversify its trade and be less dependent on China. As of now, China is the sole beneficiary of the huge deposits of minerals in N. Korea (6). Despite of the UN sanctions China imports huge amount of minerals from N. Korea. This collective step will help in bringing N. Korea out of Chinese influence.
In October 2017, India conducted tri service joint military exercise with Russia not far from the crisis zone giving signal to China about India’s reach and that the region is not just a Chinese backyard. On the other hand, India can also play a role in lowering tension between US and Russia as Russia is a key player in North Korean crisis. So far US has made sufficient noise but least has happened to the N. Korean regime. So, the stakes are high for US and N. Korea has hardly anything to lose. So, under these circumstances US should rely on countries like India who have open communication with North Korea. In the past.
Although India had been critical about N. Korean nuclear weapons and missile program, still India has a good track record of helping N Korea in providing humanitarian aid. In the past, India has trained N. Korean scientists at The Centre for Space Science and Technology in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP) located in Dehradun (5). N. Korea is also working on Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) (3) to acquire nuclear second-strike capability. On the hand Pakistan is also trying hard to acquire the nuclear secondstrike capability as India has already achieved this. North Korea and Pakistan had bartered missile and nuclear technology in the past. Pakistan got missile technology (technology transfer) from N. Korea under a government to government deal after cash payment by Pakistan; where the Pakistani Ghauri missile is a copy of N. Korean No-Dung missile (7), which is revealed by Pervez Musharraf in his book “In the Line of Fire”. So, this relation should be used by New Delhi to convince Pyonyang not to transfer the SLBM technology, (3) if India wants to have an edge over Pakistan in terms of nuclear secondstrike capability from submarines. Here, the Indian goal should be to counter the ChinaPakistan axis and to reach in Chinese backyard through N. Korea. India’s relation with N. Korea should be based more on economic and cultural ties. India has already a modest human welfare ties but that needs to be scaled up to guarantee space in relationship with N. Korea.
Conclusion
So far, India has pursued a policy of noninterference, which is laudable. But, due to changing geopolitical scenario it needs to blend its policy with some pragmatism and real politik, and come out of the Nehruvian Non-alignment hang over and exhibit some hard power in its diplomacy along with the soft power (which has earned it great respect). Not long ago, India took a very firm stance on Doklam issue with China (where Chinese had to back-off) without any belligerence which was closely monitored by the whole world especially countries neighbour to both India and China and of the Indian Ocean region. India’s relation with N. Korea should be based more on economic and cultural ties. India has already a modest human welfare ties but that needs to be scaled up to guarantee space in relationship with N. Korea. Remember, US had been in intense negotiation with DPRK (even back channel diplomacy by sending interlocutors to N. Korea, e.g. Dr. Siegfried Hecker paid altogether seven visits to N. Korea (4)) in the past, and it can have some agreement with DPRK like US-Iran nuclear deal by Obama administration. India has the potential to facilitate peace in Korean peninsula which US should reciprocate as a cooperation with India to realise its 21st century IndoPacific strategy. On the other hand, this is an opportunity for India to prove its bigger role as a rising power.
NOTE: N.B. - India considers North Korea nuke program a national security threat and adheres to UN sanctions. India is also concerned with proliferation regime and is participating in Vancouver Dialogue.
References
[1] Dinakar Peri, ‘In a first, DPRK Foreign Minister on India visit’ December 8, 2017. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/north-korea-ministers-visits-india-for-the-firsttime/article7098942.ece
[2] Jethro Mullen, ‘Trump gives 'final warning' on North Korea trade. What comes next?’ December 8, 2017. http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/22/news/economy/north-korea-trump-china-trade-sanctions/index.html
[3] Jilian Ryall, ‘North Korea carries out 'unprecedented' test of submarine missile system’ December 3, 2017. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/north-koreas-submarine-missile-tests-critical-advancehighly/
[4] Rahul Kalvapalle, ‘How did North Korea get nuclear weapons?’ December 2, 2017. https://globalnews.ca/news/3448765/north-korea-nuclear-weapons/
[5] Samuel Ramani, ‘India's U-Turn on North Korea Policy’ December 8, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/indias-u-turn-on-north-korea-policy/
[6] Steve Mollman, ‘North Korea is sitting on trillions of dollars of untapped wealth, and its neighbors want in’ December 4, 2017. https://qz.com/1004330/north-korea-is-sitting-on-trillions-of-dollars-on-untappedwealth-and-its-neighbors-want-a-piece-of-it/
[7] Suzanne Goldenberg, ‘Pakistan helped North Korea make bomb’ December 12, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/oct/19/pakistan.northkorea
[8] Xiaodon Liang, ‘The Six-Party Talks at a Glance’ December 5, 2017. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/6partytalks
