Key words: QUAD, Foreign Policy, democratization (Rule based order) of navigation, Grand Strategy, Malabar exercises.
QUAD, a brainchild of Japan’s Prime Minister Mr. Shinzo Abe, initiated in 2007, was a non-starter for first 12 years, largely due to ‘meant no offence to any other country especially China, Russia’ in the Indian Ocean & Indo-Pacific Region. This goodwill gesture was partly out of the ground reality of over dependence on China for getting most of the products manufactured at lower cost, to which even US was not an exception. China’s export overdrive policies with red carpet treatment to many countries who made investments in China by setting up of world class factories, led to Current Account Surplus with China and accompanied by high FDI inflows, could help China build massive reserves which in turn were invested in other countries financial markets and infrastructure projects. The resultant situation created fertile ground for China to nurture her ambitious program, termed as “Grand Strategy”. Next logical step was to invest its resources in the economic development of other countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Africa in the combination of capital and high-cost loan. Over a period of time, China could wield increasing clout in the local policy making of many countries, which was a perfect step in its Grand Strategy Policies of becoming super power at least in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) & Indo-Pacific Region.
The expansionist approach of China made them slowly enforce intimidating actions of threatening the trade and commerce, supply chain and logistics eco system of all the nations’ due to presence of Chinese military in the sea lines of communications.
So Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) was not an action but a reaction to the dragon’s hidden expansionist agenda and with respective member nation’s security threat perspective. US though geographically far away from the area of actual influence of Chinese policies in IOR & Indo-Pacific Region but her huge assets were under threat and more importantly her dominant role as net security provider and establishing peaceful atmosphere was threatened. A report by RAND, “an American think tank, in 2017 brought out that over the next five to 15 years, if U.S. and PLA forces remain on roughly current trajectories, Asia will witness a progressively receding frontier of U.S. dominance”.
India is perceived to be super power in making in the region and only country to withstand the intimidating advances of China, not to undermine its direct threat via Pakistan and north-eastern parts at Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh. Especially, post Doklam Lockjam, India’s inclination towards QUAD got strengthened and assumed strategic importance.
Japan is already at loggerheads with China over ‘Senkaku Islands’ and increasing fishing expeditions of China’s ships in Japanese waters has necessitated defensive measures and therefore initiating QUAD.
So far as Australia is concerned it was fence sitter for a long, probably under the impression that she was not on radar and area of influence of China’s Grand Strategy dream. As an alliance partner of the U.S., Australia is obliged to oppose Chinese expansionism, if the U.S. also does so. Neither, Australia can turn deaf ear to the China’s misadventures on a Pacific, version of the “Strings of Pearls” campaign to encircle Australia, leading to a considerable alarm in Canberra.
For all these different perspectives of members of QUAD, it was a non-starter and the distractors propagated it as ‘militarization of the region’ or ‘Asian NATO’ group, though baseless but well-orchestrated by China and other rogue nations.
Towards the last quarter of 2019, Pandemic hit the world, largely believed to be Chinese Virus either as biological warfare or purportedly accidental spread resulting into post WWI like situation in the form of economic recession throughout length and breadth of the globe. As the place of origin is Wuhan, China and with lesser transparency in its stand on COVID Virus, non-cooperation with World Health Origination investigation, non-sharing of data has led major economies to review its policies 360 degrees and mainly introvert approach with Nationalist fervor. It has resulted into hugh “trust deficit” on China. The situation is further aggravated by China’s continued meddling policies of land grabbing, military posturing on several adjoining countries borders, threatening life in Taiwan. If one has to believe in Speculative Theory on “Chinese Virus” (as US term Pandemic as) then the countries are fighting bloodless WWIII.
Hence all indicators suggest that China has used ‘cheap exports-trade imbalanceinvestments – cheque-book diplomacy-influencing the policy making in other countries thereby threatening their sovereignty – wherever required military support’ as a route to becoming Super Power in Asia then alliance like QUAD and its resurgence is the need of the hour and member nations have to be more committed, focused and serious in its approach to match the Chinese aggression.
So it is high time that QUAD which started as informal strategic dialogue must be converted into formal treaty with enforceable Framework and governance mechanism. Formal version of QUAD may have following objectives –
1. Democratization of trade and commerce including imports and exports, shipments without threat from China & rogue Nations.
2. Ensuring safe passage in sea lines of communication.
3. Protecting economic interest of member nations and respecting other nations’ right in the SEZ region, to exploit economic benefits like fishing, natural gas and other elements of blue economy in the special economic zones. asper internationally accepted treaties.
4. Providing protection with necessary defence postures including naval warships, submarines, satellite sharing etc.
5. Develop trustworthiness amongst stakeholders in the region including small nations, island cities, littoral nations, seafarers and free them from the clutches of dragon.
6. Developing Strategic Partnership based on peaceful co-existence, economic growth and prosperity.
7. To neutralize China’s BRI Project, QUAD Members can prepare counter narratives to create awareness amongst the stakeholders, as to how it is not in their interest.
8. QUAD Members can prioritize and allocate dedicated funds and provide technology to smaller nations in IOR & Indo-Pacific Region to boost economic development in those countries.
While formalizing QUAD, care must be taken of not turning it into one more mere ‘Trade-Bloc’ or Asian NATO thereby just providing military support and/or posturing but has to be truly Strategic in nature. It will be complicated exercise in view of drastic changes in geopolitical scenario and so the planning and execution also need to be out of box to face the New Normal challenges and not to forget that Pandemic might not be once in a century visitor but could be more frequent tool to wrestle the power-seat.
India must be more careful in its approach, active involvement and execution of its policies as it has larger stake being in the thick of a frying pan physically. Economy in paralytic condition, overdependence on China for various goods and technology including Pharma APIs, electronic goods, etc. India needs to maintain its identity, sovereignty, balance of trade and external relations to name a few. Mere acrobatics will not suffice the purpose, but India will need a different outlook in its ‘Foreign Policy’, diplomacy and strengthening of its internal and external security including cyber capabilities and space capabilities. In the company of bigger and more powerful nations in QUAD alliance, India cannot and need not assume second fiddle nor she should allow her to be succumbed into as Hobson’s choice. Other nations cannot call shots by using India as a launch-pad.
QUAD Policies have also to be integrated with ‘Act East’ Policy of India and as India cannot, all out, counter deploy cheque-book diplomacy, she can use ‘Soft Power’ as a strategic tool for which technology support, medicinal technology, education facilities upgradation can be a few areas, which India must reach out in terms of investments and manpower in countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar to name a few.
India’s recent signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) along with the earlier Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Understanding (LEMOA) and Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) with the U.S. are positive steps in the direction of assuming active role and contribution in QUAD.
QUAD can bring about new international law regime to replace existing UNCLOS, the cornerstones of it is right of every nation for safe passage of goods, safety of seafarers and democratic principles of exploitation of Exclusive Economic Zones and natural wealth.
‘Malabar Exercises’ need not be looked upon as QUAD’s militarization of IOR & Indo - Pacific Region, but sign of solidarity against irresponsible and reckless behavior and to tame the anarchic expansion of boundaries by China.
As a departure from its traditional Foreign Policy, India can consider to further strengthen its own ‘String of Pearls’ which will not be in conflict with QUAD Objectives.
India should bargain more concessions from US like Rupee based Oil purchase Agreement with Iran. QUAD alliance may be counter-productive for India especially with Russia, for which India must have all-together newer policy outlook.
QUAD Members can also look into some more nations who could be looking at alliance to be their representative to protect interest in the emerging new world order. QUAD Countries might even look at long term perspective, may be to articulate “Grand Strategy” Architecture for 2060.
As a side effect of QUAD alliance, there might emerge a counter alliance in the form of “Russia – China – Iran – Pakistan….” To name a few, leading to a possible scenario of Cold War 2.0.
The Centre of gravity for strategic and Geo-Political interventions need not be localized only on Marine warfare for conflict but role of Army and Airforce is underwritten, if we dwell on history.
Change in guard at Whitehouse and its likely impact on QUAD and India’s Foreign Policy trajectory –
Mr. Joe Biden, President of US being democrat and different persona altogether as compared to Mr. Trump, will definitely witness change in approach and priorities, if not, entirely turning on head on US Foreign and Security Policies. Though, Biden may be tempted to toe Obama’s Foreign Policy approach but it may not be practical to redraw the international canvas drastically impacted by Trump’s policies. (Israel – UAE Peach Agreement) Biden’s foreign policy stands in the past as a senator has drawn flak from many quarters including some of the Democrats within the party on the issues of Iraq War, Israel – Palestine never ending war engagement and sanctions on Iran. So speculated take-aways from Biden’s Foreign Policy, considering his Lieutenants in the senate, India specific could be –
1. Biden is expected to be more in favour of multi-lateral institutions as against ‘America First’ approach of Mr. Trump, which could be positive for India and QUAD Members.
2. Biden administration may have softened its stand on Iran, which could help India to bargain some concessions especially Oil purchase agreement in INR terms.
3. Biden Team might like to take shots at China not thru’ direct confrontation but thru’ its allies and from strategic partners like India. Australia being US ally partner might get concrete support on economic front, security and foreign policy as well. This will augur well for its active stand in QUAD Group.
4. On technology transfer front, India would be a preferred Partner by US as compared to China. Any major policy stand shift with China is unlikely given Biden’s controversial China engagements because there will be divide in Democrats within and will not go well with US citizens too.
As a counter strategy, India could adopt ‘wait and watch’ at least for next 6 months and then move its cards but in the meantime should continue on her ‘Act East’ Policy measures aggressively.
Balancing relations between India – US- Iran – Israel – UAE, keeping China’s expansionist policies at the core and to steadfastly galvanize India’s changed perception and role as net security provider to many smaller nations in IOR and Indo-Pacific Region, could be the backbone of India’s Foreign Policy in next 3-4 years.
“India’s Soft Power Policy stand against dragon’s expansionist approach could be – Vasudhaiva Kuthumbakam.”
