India China relations is what I focus on in my academic research career. However, today I would like to talk about that from a broader perspective.
I have to stress and it is not a secret that I am neither Chinese nor Indian. I am looking at India China relations from a certain distance, from a European perspective; which sometimes is a challenge but sometimes I feel it can be advantageous. This distance gives you a broader perspective and you can avoid emotional bias because this is not your motherland.
My talk is divided into two parts. In the first part, I would like to focus on the original implications of the India China dispute and within this part, I would like to briefly refer to three select issues – border issue, water issue and Tibetan issue in a political perspective. Afterwards, I would like to proceed to the global implications of the India China border dispute in light of the ChinaUS rivalry. So in the light of this very hot topic, which certainly has an impact on all of us.
It is becoming more and more significant to India itself too; as the relationship between India and the US is getting closer as well. But I will talk about it a little bit later.
India China Disputes
To start with the border issue, we know that it hasn’t been resolved for over seven decades. Actually, it is rooted much further back into the past. It stems from the old colonial era, the time in history when it was born. It wasn’t resolved as a result. We still have a border issue today and it seems to be escalating because border tension is flaring up recently. We have to remember that China does not want to solve this dispute. There were some proposals from the Chinese in the past, which India refused to accept when it came to the division of disputed territories. However, right now, it seems that even though China declares that the India China border dispute should be kind of set aside so that India China relations in different spheres could flourish. In fact, it seems that Beijing is not interested in solving this dispute because it can always be used for the so-called ‘blackmailing’ practice. China can use border issues to increase tensions and heat the atmosphere if it wants to pressurise India to do something in different spheres when it comes to economic relations, or maybe some other political issues.
In 1988, we had a consensus between China and India, and between two prime ministers of those countries. India China relations should be developed despite ongoing border disputes. So we should put the border dispute aside and develop bilateral relations. However, in reality, we know that everything is tightly connected and that the India China border dispute cannot be separated from economic relations, social relations and so on. Unfortunately, China can pressurise India in that regard by using the border issue card.
An example was given to us in 2017 by the Doklam Standoff, which was resolved surprisingly one week before the BRICS Summit, which was organized at the time in China
But what was kind of seen by the international community is that India was in a way punished by China. At least this is how many experts and think tank analysts perceives it. Because these two matters do not seem to be there if they’re connected. Yet they are, or at least, this is what many experts claim. I’m talking about the water issue, and in this regard, I’m talking about the Brahmaputra flood which followed the Doklam crisis. China should warn India about the upcoming flood, according to the agreement between the two governments, it did not warn India about the upcoming flood on the river.
India, of course, accused China also of doing that on purpose. China defended itself by saying that, some Hydrological stations were being upgraded at that time, which means China could not simply share any data with India. Of course, one might say that this is possible. This might be a coincidence. If you look at China towards the river sharing, you will see that there is a pattern. China is slowly starting to use the river issue or the water issue as another card that It can play against various countries, including India.
The point is that geography gives China a big advantage, China controls Tibetan rivers which is a source of life for many countries. The most important rivers of South and Southeast Asia flow out from Tibet, including Indus, Ganga. So here we are talking about South Asia, including India. If we consider all these countries together, we are talking about almost 50% of the global population. So you can see that this is a pretty big number and we have to remember we are living in times of climate change and global warming.
These are all results of the climate change and global warming that we are facing. When we are talking about water, we are talking about extreme rainfall and we are also facing increasing droughts. In fact, millions of people may be dying in the future because of a lack of access to drinking water.
So, how is it connected in the strategic and political sense? The thing is that China is building a lot of dams on those rivers, which flow from Tibet. These dams serve as power plants to produce energy. China, a rapidly developing country, is very hungry for that energy. Understandably, it needs energy. However, the problem for all those countries downstream is that China can easily stop the river flow, divert and store water. It will drop in water level in these rivers. That happened in January this year in Southeast Asia, the water level on the Mekong river dropped by one meter. For regular transportation, access to drinking, farming and livelihood, it is a disaster.
In the context of India, China is right now building the biggest dam on the Bramhaputra river, which means China will be able to play the very same card against India if it decides to block and divert the river with a dam, or just lower the water level.
So in the future, in the light of global warming and increasing droughts, China could be able to blackmail India to accept Chinese terms and decisions or they will simply block water. Such a move will cause a problem for those millions of people whose lives and livelihood depend upon river water.
The third issue is the Tibetan issue, which is, of course, a very broad matter. But here, I would only like to stress that sooner or later, we will have to face the finding of the next Dalai Lama when the current Dalai Lama passes away. I believe it will be one of the biggest upcoming challenges of India China relations as we all know, the Tibetan community in India is important, including the Tibetan Government in exile and of course the current Dalai Lama lives in India.
The US-India Alliance?
With the above aspects, I would like to talk about the reaction of the international community, particularly the United States and how the United States acts, perceive India China relations and the challenges related to it.
I have put a question mark on ‘alliance’. As during one of my previous open lectures, we have discussed whether we can talk about the alliance between the US and India or It is just a partnership. We know very well that India, since the dawn of independence, has been focusing on neutrality, has claimed that it’s following the non-alignment. India doesn’t want to join any of the military blocks. It’s looking for the 3rd way and so on. However, if you look at the developments of the last few years, particularly at what has been happening when Narendra Modi and Donald Trump came to power in the two countries, we can see a significant speedup in deals and agreements signed between the United States and India. These are all very significant, strategically important militarily important agreements,
During the third India-US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in New Delhi last year, Indian representatives were very reluctant about China. They were even avoiding the name China. They were just stressing that this is an agreement between India and the US. The representatives of the United States were much more open and they were saying that they have to counterbalance China.
It seems to the international community, or from the national perspective, that India was left with no choice. If India really wants to counterbalance China in the Himalayan region and protect its Himalayan borders; it has to find allies and, of course, the U. S. is pretty much the only ally that can help India to create a counterbalance, even though still the government in New Delhi seem to be reluctant to talk about these things openly and openly pulling the finger out and show China is our enemy.
So at least the narrative is that India is still avoiding calling China an enemy, at least openly. When it comes to the American perspective, it is pretty clear that India is perceived as the key ally in the Indo-Pacific. In January 2020, just a few days before Donald Trump ceased to be the American President, a very interesting document was declassified. This document did not reveal anything fantastic or surprising. However, it confirmed an interesting thing: India is the key partner for the US.
The document also revealed that the US notices two continental challenges when it comes to India, first is border issue and the second is water. So, here we have some sort of confirmation of what I have been already talking about the fact that water will become sooner or later the key issue when it comes to India China relations.
The US has already started to do something when it comes to the Mekong and South-East Asian countries, where it also tries to lure them back to the American fold and counterbalance Chinese influence in the region.
Of course, whether $150 million is a big sum or not depends on the context. Nevertheless, it seems that the US does perceive the water issue as one of the key challenges in the region and who knows whether in a year or five the US may have a similar deal with India as China is developing water infrastructure, which might affect India in near future.
On the Tibetan issue, the U. S. Congress passed a ‘Tibetan Policy and Support Act’ and it was signed by the US President. The act says that the US will put sanctions, including the denial of entry on all Chinese officials, who will try to interfere in the election of the current Dalai Lama successor.
So, yet again, we see that the United States is getting more and more interested and more and more engaged in the region and it already notices problems that are only present there but will become even more significant and critical in the near future.
What is important here is that these are not just hallowed or all declarations. All these deals and all these agreements are on the paper. Well, of course, someone might say that this is just a piece of paper. So, it all depends on the next White House administration, whether they will treat these pieces of paper seriously. Yet, we do have a set of acts and all these agreements were passed through a legislative path, which makes it much more difficult for the Biden White House to forget about them and to deviate from the policies which were started or strengthened by President Donald Trump. However, it seems that at least when it comes to China, the attitude of the Biden White House is pretty much the same as his predecessors. Perhaps, words will be softer, perhaps there will be fewer aggressive tweets written by President Biden himself in comparison to Donald Trump. However, the general idea will be the same, which means that China is now the biggest competitor of the United States and naturally India is the key partner which the United States needs on its side against China.
It seems that there is a growing US engagement in the Pacific because of China US rivalry. As a consequence, India is becoming a part of this issue, even though it seems that it is the biggest nightmare of politicians like Nehru coming true. Back in the 1950s or 60, it seems that the Indian government at that time did not want the India China border dispute to become a continental or a global challenge and not to allow other countries to interfere and get involved. Now, it seems that India has pretty much no other way to go and if it really wants to protect its borders from China, it really has to turn the India China border issue into a global issue.
It is pretty much clear what the United States wants from India. However, it is not that easy to say for non-Indian and non-Chinese scholars or specialists to suggest how India should react. If you are far away, it is very easy to say what India should do. However, If you are India, you have China just next door and China is your neighbour from Northen inside but also, we have to remember about Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region and among countries on the Indian Ocean, for instance like Sri Lanka or the Maldives. These are the challenges India has to face.
The last thing I would like to stress and refer to is the Centennial speech of Xi Jinping when China was celebrating 100 years of the Communist Party of China, which was established in 1921 as this gives us an idea of what China really wants. The thing is that India does not seem to be China’s priority at least when it comes to the goals and challenges of China. Of course, this speech was directed, mainly at the internal audience – the Chinese people. However, there were some references and some signals to an external foreign international audience as well; mainly to the United States when Xi Jinping as saying that China will not allow other countries to give China sanctimonious preaching from those who feel they have the right to lecture us. What I would like to say here is that logically if, for example, Arunachal Pradesh is considered to be the southern part of Tibet by the Chinese. In that case, regaining Arunachal Pradesh should be a part of the Chinese reunification policy. However, Xi Jinping did not say a word about it.
He was only referring to Taiwan when he was talking about the reunification of China and overcoming this 100 years of humiliation, which is a big ideological deal in China. He was talking about reuniting Taiwan with the mainland that will end the process of reunification of China.
He did not say anything about Arunachal Pradesh. This means that at least in China’s narrative, it does not seem to be an important element. So it pushes the India China border conflict further into the future. Right now in my understanding, China will be focusing on Taiwan. The conflict with India and the border issue within India is there and it is a part of China’s foreign policy. But it is not the priority. This is not as big an issue for China as it is for India.
So the scale and the attitude of those two countries are different. Right now China will be focusing on reuniting Taiwan through what China calls ‘peaceful reunification. However, it is difficult to believe that it will be a peaceful reunification if it really happens.
Q&A
Do you see Quad or any democratic alliance in Indo-pacific as another NATO-like arrangement? What role do you see for Taiwan in Quad+ architecture?
Quad can become some sort of NATO. However, it is still a long way to go until it becomes something like NATO or Indo-Pacific NATO. Nevertheless, China is the only factor that connects all those countries. We need to find more platforms or more common elements than simply being worried about China and counterbalancing China to create something relevant and stable, which will be able to last not just for a few years but for decades. If we think of it later, you might say that the thing which was putting or collecting all countries together in NATO was the Soviet Union, for example, however, Soviet Union collapsed and NATO survived. So, I think that more common issues, more common elements are needed. But of course, defending democracy is one of those elements and it is truly one of the most important elements. Here we might proceed to the Taiwan issue, which, I believe will be one of the biggest challenges of the upcoming decade. If we think about moral issues, we think about human rights, democracy. It is obvious that Taiwan as a nation should have a right to decide about itself. It is a de facto independent country, even though it has been recognized only by 15 countries in the world. Nobody has any doubts that Taiwan is an independent country and it has been since 1949. So, it is obvious that the United States, Japan, India, Australia, and other democratic countries such as South Korea should defend Taiwan. But the question is how to defend Taiwan? Are we talking about the military conflict? Will the United States and other countries send armies to protect Taiwan from China? This is an extremely difficult matter and it seems that right now, at least China is still not ready for an open conflict? It is using the salami-slicing practice. So it is going step by step. For example, it is a question of whether it will launch an attack on the whole of Taiwan, or whether it will go for the Kinmen island or the Penghu islands. Whether it will try to slice the parts of Taiwan step by step or whether it won’t be a military invasion at all. They may also try for some sort of economic pressure or maritime blockade. It has already happened in the past that Taiwan will be somehow forced to negotiate with China. However, the experience of Hong Kong shows that if there was any chance among Taiwanese people to make them want to reunite with China, this chance is lost. The example of Hong Kong shows very clearly that Beijing does not really want to keep the division of one country two systems. It wants real control over parts of its territory. So, if anyone in Taiwan had any hopes that there can be one China but two systems; those illusions are already lost.
Is it possible to do economic integration within Quad countries in order to reduce dependence on China for supply chain and trade? Can Taiwan play a role in the diversification of the supply chain considering Taiwan’s capacity in the electronic sector?
The economy is something that brings Quad members together. There was even an idea that the quad members should do something about the global fight with covid. So there was an idea that the Quad members will fund a huge production of vaccines in India. So together these 4 countries will counterbalance China vaccine policy or China medical diplomacy. However, the thing is that India is fighting with another covid wave. It is getting a little bit better, but a few months back when these kinds of ideas were arising and when scholars and think time specials we’re talking about it then this huge wave hit India. Which made India focus on internal matters and the internal fight with covid rather than putting India as someone who will help other countries of the world with focusing and giving vaccines for free. I am afraid that this kind of idea, unfortunately, because of external circumstances were doomed to fail. Nevertheless, I think that democracy and economy is something that has to be added to the Quad alliance apart from counterbalancing China. However, the question is, can we counterbalance China?
Recently, I read some reports about the initiation of talks between India and the European Union about the free trade agreement and I found many interesting articles in which all were saying is that yes now China can be replaced by India in trade relations with the EU and this is how you can diminish China’s global role. Unfortunately, if you look at the numbers and how big the trade relationship is between various European countries and China, India cannot simply replace China at this stage. It can be a great addition. If we are talking about the future EU-India free trade agreement, India can in some sectors such as the pharmaceutical industry be a competitor to China. But it cannot fully replace China. So even though we do understand that China’s power comes from the economy, and unfortunately, right now we live in such a globalized world. Those connections are so tight and so important that if China has economic problems, all of us, all our countries will have economic problems. So it’s not just the case of let’s replace A with B.
When it comes to semiconductors, some experts in Taiwan claimed that China will never attack Taiwan because of the semiconductor industry as it’s so crucial for the whole world. However, at the same time, we have to remember that China is already trying to buy specialists from Taiwan and make them come to China to work for the Chinese companies and steal the know-how that Taiwan has. As we know that China is capable of simply stealing technology or copying it and then developing it. So I wouldn’t be so sure that semiconductors will protect Taiwan.
Could you recommend any particular framework for India’s relationship with Taiwan while maintaining balance with China?
I spent 10 months in Taiwan before coming back to Poland 23 weeks ago. So I had many opportunities to talk about India-China-Taiwan relations and this is something that is gaining more and more attention.
Some experts think that since India cannot rely on China and China is behaving so badly towards India when it comes to the border issue, then Why should India uphold its one China policy?
So some claim that India should threaten China, or go for acknowledging Taiwan and depart from the one China policy, or even closing relationship with China and keeping one-China policy. But the One China would be Taiwan in this case and not the PRC.
I’m afraid that this is a highly moral attitude. However, simply because of the economic relations. Let’s not forget China is the most important trade partner of India.
India is not China’s most important trade partner, but it’s becoming more and more important.
For example, last year we saw trade growth in India China relations was the second Highest after relations between China and South Africa. So, India is also becoming a country that China needs.
Plus the border issue, the motivation is the same as it was in 1949-50 when Nehru’s government decided to seize a relationship with the Republic of China and acknowledged the People’s Republic of China. Again, you have to try to have a good relationship with your neighbour, especially since that neighbour is so big and potentially dangerous and it’s increasingly more and more powerful. So, I would say that that kind of move from the Indian side is not possible. However, I do believe that India suit steps out of the one-China Policy shadow. India should try to balance Beijing and Taipei and still upholding the one-China policy like most of the countries in the world do, including European countries. However, Taiwan creates lots of opportunities. Taiwan has already been making pretty important investments in India, for example, Karnataka. There is a huge potential when it comes to India-Taiwan economic relations, the IT industry particularly and perhaps the medical industry. So, I believe that this is a way for India-Taiwan, relations.
Considering your European background, do you see another NATO-like organisation could be a good idea or it would be counterproductive?
Well, I think that definitely, something has to be done when it comes to China’s increasing power and position in the world. We cannot just wait and watch. Unfortunately, it’s too late to wait and watch. The international community is aware of what is happening in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, which also clearly shows that China does not necessarily have good intentions. The Belt and Road initiative, another example, puts many countries in terrible debt. Some countries are dealing with this initiative better than others. But some countries, such as Sri Lanka, are pretty much dependent on China already. There is no chance in the new future that these countries will become fully independent at least in economic terms.
Right now we are talking about the economy, someday we might talk about the political influence of China in those countries. Perhaps, China might interfere in the elections and then choosing the leadership of Asian or African countries. So we have to be fully aware of that. The 21st century will be the century of Asia. The question is, whether it will be the century of Asian countries, plural, or just one Asian country and that is China. So, I believe that some sort of NATO, based on real democratic values, should be developed and definitely Quad has such a perspective. But as I said, so far, there is just one real thing that connects all those countries and that is counterbalancing China. More elements should be added to make Quad successful.
This is a transcription of a talk delivered by Dr Łuszczykiewicz
