Since the beginning of 21st Century Indo-Pacific region has emerged as a region of further economic growth, trade, commerce, new geo-political geo-strategic and geo-economic equations. From South China Sea to Mediterranean Sea all most – all nations big or small are facing some form of conflict resulting in enlarge zonal/regional rivalries and conflict. Alongside Arabian Sea, Red Sea the emergence of “Arab-Spring and the recent events added entirely new dimensions to internal and international conflicts, change of ruling regime in various nation states : totally instigated, supported sustained and even militarily intervened by outside powers who wish to change the ruling regime of any nation to suit and enlarge their so called national interests, No nation can remain untouched from the new emerging philosophy of world governance and emerging world order.
In the 21st Century due to the new philosophy and concepts of War, Interventions geographical boundaries are increasingly losing credence and relevance. Economic linkages are resulting into myriad – social, political, religious, cultural and psychological interference. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is now redefined as Indo-Pacific Region, due to the so called Strategic and Economic interests of some nations
resulting in Zone / Region of conflict. Therefore, when we now discuss and analyze evolving geo-political and geo-strategic equations which are changing the geo-economic power equation it will be prudent to include Mediterranean Sea theatre, Gulf of Suez, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden to Straits of Malacca, Indonesian Water and even South China Sea as a region of Strategic interests to entire world due to global implications and economic interests. Existing vast and strategic expanse will get extended further because of Social, Cultural, ideological, economic, trade and industrial interest which collectively can be termed as geo-political and geo-strategic interest. It also must be considered that in the 21st Century due to increasing connectivity, inter dependence and interoperability an extended IOR and Asia-Pacific Region is a home to approximate four billion people and accounts for 62% of GDP. By 2030, the world’s leading economics are likely to be in this region and balancing pivot. The new emerging environment and realty calls for a reorientation of mindset regarding area of interest, area of dominance and area of influence, strategic dimensions combined with influence extent of sustainable and lasting outreach. There are as many as 46 countries on the periphery of Indo-Pacific Region. Majority of them are glued to religious and ideological leanings and attachment. Most of the nations have yet to achieve a reasonable standard of living and sustenance, economic growth, internal peace and stability. The Oil bonanza which descended on some of the Gulf countries and North Africa region created another dimension of financial and ideological support to fundamentalism, Radicalization and terrorism. It also ignited the hunger and fueled the greed towards weapons and mechanism of mass destruction and disruption of masses, displacement of masses and refugee problem. Most of these countries have got involved are sucked into inter-state and intra-state conflicts which have adversely impacted security environment the world over. Many countries are facing land boundary and maritime disputes.
The strategic assets, economic, industrial, financial, nuclear assets of majority of nations are located along sea cost. Despite this fact and reality these is lack of understanding and unity of approach in Indo-Pacific region for collective
Security. If we wish to excel as a stable, peaceful, and progressive region we must accept that “IOR at Pacific Regions” destiny will be a world’s shared destiny. This will require greater regional cooperation, connectivity of minds, thoughts, actions and age old philosophy of human survival “Share and Care”. In this regard “Sagar Discourse” annual dialogue being organized by Forum for Integrated National Security (FINS) is step in right – direction to engage meaningfully not only with Indian Ocean Region but also with Asia Pacific Region. Towards West India wish to engage with Oman, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Malagasy, Mauritius, Iran, Persian Gulf of Arab Region, Afghanistan and Central Asian Region.
The forces of instability and destruction are active in Asia-Pacific Region due to interest and encouragement of few major powers. India has the potential and ability to act as deference and support diplomacy and geo-politics. In the 21stCentury conventional diplomacy and geo politics is being and will continue to be supported by armed power and “military diplomacy”. This has been witnessed recently in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and now in Syria. India has the capacity, capability to position itself in Gulf region to ensure stability and progress of the region.
India’s commanding geographical position in the IOR gives us a unique opportunity to bring to gather the forces of stability in ensuring Security of Sea lines of Communication and coastal region of other nations as well. Sea piracy in straits of Malacca to Somalia coast poses very serious threat to international trade and commerce through Sea. We need to tackle this problem through regional collaboration and achieve a good degree of success. The terrorist separatists and insurgent groups are still very active in Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh. A new theatre of conflict has emerged due to appearance of coloration of ISIS, Al-Qaida and other terrorist groups in Middle East, Europe and North Africa. This has a bearing on world peace, economy, and trade. The very existence and Security of some nations is under threat. Therefore new geo-political equation will have to be considered and evaded to ensure Sea, maritime of costal security. A study of world map shows that there are four communication bottlenecks that are of vital important from the point of view of geo-strategic and geo-economic implications to all nations in IOR and Pacific region. The Cape of Good Hope, The Strait of Hormuz, Bab al mandab and strait of Malacca. With emerging ambitions of a lone power in Asia-Pacific region, geo-strategic, geo-economic interests, India has no other option but to play a lead role and pay special attention to the possible zone of conflict and to the island Group which provides the land base, staging points and jump off areas for operations. This was evident during invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, assault on Libya, Yemen and new operations against ISIS in Syria and Iraq; the concept of enforcement of “No Fly Zone”, imposition of economic sanctions and trade barrios. Diego Garcia and Maldives will remain of special significance in the IOR. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia will play a significant role in South Chinas Sea and Pacific region. Both USA and China are enamored by Pakistan due to strategic location. Geographic “Location” of any nation is everything when it comes to security and strategic considerations. Pakistan’s location and connectivity is linked to US strategic interest in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran, China and India. Same holds good for China too. China is keen to use Pakistan as captive and exclusive transit Territory to Iron, Middle East, Arabian Sea, and shortest route to East Africa and North Africa coast. China – Pakistan Economic corridor can always be used as Military Corridor by China. India with its strong maritime and air capability has been attempting to play useful role in establishing peace and stability in the IOR. However due to mutual distrust between the RIM countries they have prevented the creation of an overall security umbrella or architecture in the region despite interdependence and common security interests. India therefore has to play a key role to develop binding relations with IOR countries as well as Pacific re-gion countries. US leadership wants a stranger presence in the region to counter greater threats to peace and stability. US new diplomatic and military strategy is explicitly geared towards tracking and countering threats from terrorists and terrorism. Unlike others the USA does not have any territorial ambitions and aggressive uncontrollable greed. The emerging trends and likely threats have encouraged USA to reorient and refocus the military resources from Atlantic to Pacific and Indian Ocean. India is a major trustworthy nation in the region with geo-strategic advantage and that adds to responsibility of India to play a lead role to ensure regional and maritime security. To marginalize and neutralize Pakistan’s geo strategic importance, it will be in USA’s long term geo-economic and geo strategic interest to improve good relationship with Iran and make a constructive and powerful presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. The US will have to manage and balance the relations and dependence on Saudi Arabia. It will be in the long term interests of Saudi Arabia and entire Middle East to end hostile attitude and hostilities towards Iran to protect the interests of coming generations in the entire Middle East. India can and must be invited to play a major useful and lead up role in establishing new friends and purposeful relationship between USA –Iran and Saudi Arabia. At present there is no other country which can match India’s Soft Power; Hand Power, Strategic Proximity and Smart Power to build a new stable, peaceful Middle Eastern Region. Improved and friendly relations between USA and Iran will change geo-political and geo-strategic power equation in Middle East; Central Asia, North Africa and South Asia. This will be good for entire Middle East and world. It may sound impractical and unachievable at the moment, but the understanding and united action by USA NATO and Russia against ISIS is an example of Common interests. Few years back before emergence of ISIS as a major Challenge it was unthinkable that both USA and Russia will face a common threat!!!to ensure stability, peace and security there is a need to ensure power balance. Historically in International Relations a Power Imbalance has always led instability and eventually to War or Conflict. The events since 2001 across the world suggest that in 21st Century power imbalance will not only encourage interstate War/Conflict, but also more importantly unconventional War, low intensity conflicts, regime change internal conflicts supported from outside. A stronger and combative power will always ley to achieve total dominance and influence. While India has never been nor in future would wish to dominate any one, but at the same time India must ensure that no one else is in a position to dictate terms to us or to our neighboring countries.
Finally it is recommended that a cooperative and convergent approach to integrated and comprehensive security of IOR and Pacific region will be potential source of regional peace, stability and prosperity. There will be a shift from confrontation to cooperation, from destruction to reconstruction, disengagement to reengagement which will lead us and our coming generations towards a bright, positive, meaningful and prosperous future for Indo-Pacific region.
