Thru’ the Desk of the Editor

India’s 2024 parliamentary election has reaffirmed strength and vibrancy of the country’s democratic process, showcasing electorate’s power to shape their government. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), secured an electoral victory and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is back in office for third term, leading a coalition government. Being a coalition government, he will need to rely on partners, who agreed to back him. But could Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s success in foreign policy arena perish at altar of coalition politics? Collective wisdom suggests that despite a reduced mandate, India's foreign policy pursuit under Modi 3.0 is unlikely to be affected. With BJP’s coalition partners rendering full support, there is unanimity among politicians and pundits that present government's mantra of 'strategic consensus' and pursuit of multilateralism will continue to drive India towards becoming a global force as well as world's third-largest economy by 2027.

India's foreign policy has undergone significant transformations during Prime Minister Modi's tenure. The current geopolitical landscape, marked by conflicts, shifting alliances, economic volatility, and escalating security threats, has placed India's foreign policy at a pivotal juncture. The re-election of Prime Minister Modi for third term marks both continuity and possibly new paths in India's foreign policy. Retaining Dr. S. Jaishankar as Foreign Minister clearly signals continuity in India's foreign policy goals. As important actor on world arena, India's diplomatic endeavours have significant impact on regional and international stability and focus on foreign policy gains prominence in navigating global challenges amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. The general consensus appears to be that present foreign policy has already catapulted India onto global stage. India’s actions have so far reflected a nuanced approach to maintaining an independent foreign policy that is in its national interest. The first 100 days of present government mark a critical phase for India’s foreign policy landscape setting tone for India’s proactive engagement on world stage and reaffirming its aspirations as global leader in 21st century. India is an emerging great power, as American political scientist John Mearsheimer recently suggested. Now, India will certainly strive to go beyond an emerging great power status.

As Modi prepares to lead India once again, international community is keenly observing potential shifts and continuities in India’s foreign policy. He will likely build on achievements and challenges of his previous terms, with significant implications for India’s role in global politics. From strategic alliances to economic diplomacy and regional security, third term will be crucial in shaping India’s international trajectory in an increasingly complex and multipolar world. "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" and "Bharat First" will be two guiding axioms of India's foreign policy. Present foreign policy goals in his third term will be to actualize India’s long-sought permanent membership in United Nations Security Council, form strategic alliances, deal with China challenge, revitalize ties with neighbours, and play pivotal role in world politics. World is “looking towards India with many hopes.” To live up to those expectations, India needs to “make several changes to move forward in global scenario” and “change our traditional thinking regarding reform.” Modi’s third term will see an all-around reform to “align with aspirations of creating Viksit Bharat by 2047.” The present administration has given a lot of thought to external relations. Foreign policy debates earlier were seen as an elite phenomenon, removed from domestic policy arena.However, last ten years have seen democratization of foreign policy discussions. India’s presidency of G20, or its “strategic autonomy” stand, avoiding alliances in Ukraine-Russia conflict or Israel-Palestine conflict has been subject of chatter among “aamaadmi”. India has been largely successful in creating brand of itself in terms of civilizational attributes, strong diaspora ties and robust democratic credentials. The government has been using terms like “Viksit Bharat”, “Vishwaguru” and “Vishwamitra” which sit well with common citizenry and amplified India’s claim as civilizational power. Looking ahead, strategic autonomy will continue to underpin India’s foreign policy priorities. Modi 3.0 will also work on carving a peaceful periphery for itself, which would involve dealing with China challenge and revitalising ties with neighbours and Indo-Pacific members.To the world, expanding Indian global power presents opportunities and obstacles alike. U.S. and like-minded allies could have increasingly formidable partner to counter China. Global South will have a powerful advocate. For capital-rich companies and countries, massive Indian consumer markets will beckon. But India’s growing global clout could raise some red flags. New Delhi’s embrace of multipolarity, through efforts to empower Global South and strengthen multilateral organisations, risks diluting U.S. power.

Though during previous term, India had faced tremendous pressure to become formal U.S. ally, Modi commendably dodged President Joe Biden’s charm offensive. India has stood firm on avoiding alliances with any major power, trying to balance relations among competing global powers, which is observed in India's interactions with U.S., Russia and China, as well as its balancing act between Israel and Middle Eastern countries. These challenges will become bigger for India because rise of China and Russia are expected to undermine U.S dominated liberal global order. Ukraine war has dragged on with no end in sight. U.S. is desperate to bring powers like India into its orbit of influence. If India becomes formal U.S. ally, it would be huge shot in arm for President Biden. President Putin would not like to lose an old, trusted friend in India, which relies heavily on him for its defence and energy needs. Modi’s relationship with United States will deepen further, building on foundations laid during his previous terms. The strategic convergence between two nations is driven by shared concerns over China’s rise and assertiveness in Indo-Pacific region. Initiatives like Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with U.S., Japan, and Australia will gain momentum, emphasizing free and open Indo-Pacific. Enhanced defence cooperation, joint military exercises, technology transfers will characterize this relationship. India’s ties with U.S. have flourished during Modi’s two terms and comeback will see continuity in India U.S. relations.

India will continue to maintain its defence and trade ties with Russia. While Delhi may have set priorities right with Moscow, Russia’s “friendship” with China is matter of concern, as it complicates India’s security calculus and regional balance. Russia has been India's all-weather friend and often does not appear to be wanting anything in return for its deep commitment to India. U.S. and other Western powers are wary of India's close ties with Russia. They have repeatedly asked India to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. India’s historical ties with Russia are expected to remain strong, though they will be tested by India’s growing proximity to U.S. The balancing act between Russia and U.S. will be crucial for India’s foreign policy.

In dealing with immediate neighbours – Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan – “Neighbourhood First” has been key foreign policy initiative of Modi administration. Despite trust deficit and rising Chinese influence, India seems to have succeeded in removing Sri Lanka from Beijing’s sphere of influence with $4 billion assistance during Sri Lanka’s 2022 crisis. India’s commitment to maintaining its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ was demonstrated by presence of seven heads of government of regional countries at Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. This included president of Maldives, where efforts to secure departure of Indian military personnel from Maldives have recently strained relations. The invitation to neighbours for swearing-in ceremony also signifies that focus on India's neighbourhood will continue; this is also signal that India has no intention of ceding strategic space in its periphery. India’s approach to South Asia is expected to involve mix of diplomacy and strategic assertiveness. Relations with Pakistan are likely to remain tense, with India’s stance on terrorism and cross-border infiltration being uncompromising.

On Pakistan, India has held firm that it will not tolerate Islamabad’s state-sponsored cross-border terrorism in Kashmir. Pakistan will not normalize ties with India, considering that its military runs the show. Although some quarters in Pakistan are willing to engage with India, the question looms whether its military wants it. The answer thus far is no. With Islamabad’s continued army domination, there is little hope for change. There is no real hurry to change Indian approach vis-à-vis Pakistan, as New Delhi has been successful over last decade in marginalising Pakistan not only on global stage but also in Indian political discourse.

Beijing has already started on sour note with Modi 3.0 by protesting congratulatory exchange between Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te and Indian Prime Minister, arguing that New Delhi should resist Taiwan's "political calculations". When Chinese foreign ministry congratulated Prime Minister for his election victory, India merely reiterated that New Delhi would pursue normalisation of its ties with China based on mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity.The India-China relationship will continue to be complex and cautious. The border skirmishes and standoff in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh have strained bilateral ties. India will continue to bolster its infrastructure along the border, increase its defence capabilities, and seek alliances to counterbalance China’s influence. India has lot of rethinking to do in revamping its security infrastructure across its Himalayan border, where tensions with China continue. All eyes will be on possible meeting between newly re-elected Indian prime minister and China’s leader Xi Jinping on sidelines of Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan next month.

Modi's engagements with Gulf countries and West Asia have been a big success. On Israel-Gaza issue, one expects India's strategic autonomy to continue. India's ties with Israel have grown stronger, with increased cooperation in defence, technology, and agriculture. India has maintained strong ties with Arab countries, particularly in Gulf, which are crucial for energy security and large Indian expatriate population. India's balancing act is viewed positively by West, recognising strategic importance of maintaining relations with both Israel and Arab world and is seen as testament to India's diplomatic finesse.

India’s leadership roles in regional and global platforms, such as G20 presidency, provide it with opportunities to shape international agendas. Under Modi’s leadership, India will continue emphasizing inclusive development, equitable growth and sustainable practices. G20 presidency is a platform where India advocated for climate finance, energy security and promotion of green technologies, thereby aligning global initiatives with its national policies. India has gained membership in an array of global forums, from new Quad arrangements with U.S., U.A.E. and Israel to prestigious Missile Technology Control Regime. India’s status as net security provider is solidified, increasing arms sales to Indo-Pacific partners and projecting naval power in Middle East to protect / assist ships targeted by missiles and piracy.

India aims for credible leadership role in Global South, evidenced by substantial progress in its increased engagement with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. India is being acknowledged as strong and important voice of Global South and due to India’s initiatives, African Union has become part of G-20 group. This will be crucial turning point for future of African countries. By becoming “voice of Global South,” India is attempting to find its niche, where it enjoys more welcoming space. This strategic positioning also fosters stronger economic and political ties with emerging economies.

India has been making best of alternate minilateral institutions, with like-minded countries with common goals and interests. India, U.S., Japan, and Australia share common security concerns about China in Indo-Pacific and formed Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. France is collaborating with India and United Arab Emirates to enhance its role in Indian Ocean. Colombo Security Conclave, a security-oriented grouping in Indian Ocean brings together India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Mauritius. India will strengthen minilateral alliances.

As Prime Minister Modi begins the third term, India’s role in international politics is set to expand and evolve. The country’s ability to maintain strategic autonomy, drive economic growth, address global challenges and enhance its soft power will be pivotal. These efforts will not only solidify India’s position as key player on global stage but also ensure that it continues to navigate complexities of international relations with nuanced and balanced approach. India’s path to great powerdom, requires extensive course corrections to get there. India needs institutional fixes, like acceleration of defence reforms implementation, increasing diplomatic corps size, navigating great power rivalry by doubling down on its core foreign policy principle of strategic autonomy and balancing ties with competing powers. As India adheres to principle of strategic autonomy, key challenge arises in maintaining delicate equilibrium among global powers, as each foreign policy decision carries significant ramifications. The current level of strategic autonomy could undergo transitions in response to evolving geopolitical dynamics. Navigating strategic rivalry between U.S. and China and managing relationship with Russia amidst its geopolitical tensions with West, will require adept diplomacy. India has maintained close ties with Russia, its longtime partner, since Russian invasion of Ukraine, which India declined to condemn, while managing to keep relations warm with U.S. It backed Israel’s war in Gaza, justifying it as necessary counterterrorism move, even as its strong ties with Palestinians and Arab capitals remain intact. From this balancing act, India derives unique form of global influence: It defies polarisation of power politics, straddling competing camps and positioning itself as a bridge.

While foreign policy choices made by Indian government have generally yielded favourable results, ongoing adjustments are imperative to effectively capitalize on emerging opportunities and navigate impending challenges. India is positioned to increase its prominence and power on world stage by placing high priority on international collaboration, economic progress, and regional stability. Some time ago, India achieved status of a middle power: a country with deep global footprint and heavy strategic importance, but not strong enough to ascend to upper echelon of world powers. The re-election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi positions India to begin transition from middle to major power.

Articles in this edition of the Journal examine various dimensions of Diplomacy and Security related issues ranging from Refugees in India to Humanitarian role of Indian Navy, to India’s Air Power Horizon and Maritime Cyber Security. All authors have presented their views, with well-planned research on the topic with deep thought process. Their views will surely help in instilling the subject and topics under discussion in minds of the readers.