The regional geopolitical situation in West Asia continues to remain fluid and unexpected. The signing of Iranian nuclear deal called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in July 2015 in Vienna between Iran and P + 1 countries (US, China, Russia, France, UK) with Germany and EU for tenure of 15 years to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons and obviating nuclear arms competition in West Asian region, was believed to be new opening in the region. Obama’s administration tried to reconfigure a new regional order bringing in Iran with signing of JCPOA. But US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from JCPOA has brought back animosity and heightened tensions in the Gulf. It has significantly reshuffled power arrangement and equation among state entities in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia once side lined during Obama administration has re-entered sphere of influence. Qatar has once again put on defensive and alienated from regional forum and tension between Saudi and Qatar has widened. Year 2020 will go down in history not only for adverse impact of Covid-19 on global economies, lower oil prices, health hazards but when West Asia region nearly came to catastrophic war between Iran and USA. Killing of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq on 3rd January 2020 by US drone attack to mysterious fires and blasts at Iranian nuclear plants were enough to ignite revenge, but Iran chose to maintain strategic patience.

Arab Spring was multi-causal phenomenon which began in Tunisia on 17th December 2010 when vending cart of Mohammad Bouazizi was confiscated by police in Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid. He was an unemployed youth who was put under police brutality. In Arab countries, inequality on basis of wealth is widespread. Masses are suffering from unemployment, poverty etc. It was a civil uprising and led to removal of some civil rulers like rulers of Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Demonstrations occurred in Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan etc. On 17th December 2020, ‘Arab Spring’ had its 10th anniversary when one witnessed some hope as in Libya warring sides, factions and international actors agreed for permanent ceasefire and formation of transitional authority to pave way forward. Tunisia remained sole successful experiment in democracy in the region despite changes in government, while popular protests still continue against lack of employment and lack of opportunity among youth in some countries.

Boycott of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt led to Qatar coming closer to Iran and Turkey. This is change in existing balance of power in Gulf region. Emergence of strong Iran-Turkey-Qatar relationship alters existing geopolitics and regional security architecture. The three-year-old Gulf dispute between Qatar and Saudi led Quartet is heading for resolution as Israel and Arab world rapprochement expanded to include UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco through Abraham Accords engineered by Trump Administration. The year 2021 has begun on right note with rapprochement between Qatar and Quartet signed at historic Al Ula Summit chaired by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman on 5th January 2021 and attended by Emir of Qatar and other leaders at 41st GCC Summit.

Situation in Syria, Libya and Yemen continues to deteriorate with growing sectarian, ethnic and tribal divisions. Efforts of UN have been ineffective as parties have remained adamant. Saudi Arabia tried to call off Yemen conflict through Riyadh Agreement, but Houthis supported by Iran remain intransigent. President Assad of Syria retained his control with help of Russia and Iran. Disgruntled Palestinians hope for President-elect Biden’s support to resolve Palestinian issue with some viable solution. President Trumps’ “Deal of the Century” and his decisions on Jerusalem and Golan Heights have failed to have any traction and have widened trust deficit.

West Asia is witnessing a new China. Recent moves signal shift towards greater Chinese diplomatic and security engagement. China inaugurated its first foreign military base in Djibouti; China released its first ”Arab Policy Paper”; China appointed special envoy to Syria crisis; China ranks fifteenth in list of weapon suppliers’ to the region and started manufacturing Chinese drones in Saudi Arabia – first in Middle East; appointed mediator for talks between Saudi and Iran. China is engaging rivals in West Asia such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and Syria with ease. China today holds unique place of friend of all Middle Eastern leaders and enemy to none. Beijing is fast moving from periphery to core in the region. China enhanced its footprints in West Asia as they signed long-term agreement with Iran for strategic investments and oil supplies under BRI projects and developed close partnership with many countries.

In recent years economic prospects for West Asia have been grim. The region has one of world’s highest unemployment rates as well as world’s slowest GDP per capita growth rate. Drastic fall in oil prices by around 60 per cent in 2014 had severe impact on economies of oil exporting countries. The economy of West Asia region witnessed stagnation as result of low oil prices, political instability, terrorist attacks, violent armed conflicts and civil wars. In 2010, before outbreak of protests, World Bank had projected growth rate of 4.4 per cent for West Asia region. In 2015, World Bank estimated that GDP growth for the region would be around 2.8 per cent. The region’s economic growth now is almost half of what it was before unrest began in 2011. World Bank predicts that economies of West Asia region would continue at pace of 1.5 to 3.5 per cent during 2019-2021. Amid continuing instability and violence, issue of energy security is key concern for oil importing countries in Asia, such as India, China, Japan and South Korea.

From India’s perspective West Asian region is of great importance. India’s bilateral trade with the region is around US$ 200 billion and India imports more than 60 per cent of its energy requirements from the region. There are about nine million Indians living in the region whose safety and security is a concern for New Delhi. Any challenge to regional security or weakening of economies in West Asia will directly impact economy and security of India. To secure its economic and strategic interests, India has pursued extremely active diplomacy since 2014. One significant foreign policy initiative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been importance accorded to further strengthening India’s relationship with West Asia. India has maintained momentum in engagements with West Asia despite political and economic turbulence there. There have been substantive improvements in political, economic, security and Defence relations. Invitation by Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) to India to participate as ‘Guest of Honour’ to address inaugural plenary held in Abu Dhabi in March 2019 is reflection of growing acceptance of India’s rising international profile and economy among West Asian countries.

West Asia region has attracted intervention from several players in face of political instability, socio-economic uncertainty, escalating violence. These challenges necessitate meticulous monitoring, in-depth analyses and more frequent exchanges among scholars and policy-makers to find ways for lasting regional peace, stability and security. In that direction, FINS Journal of Diplomacy & Strategy intends to spur in-depth and open dialogue to Analyse problems and challenges, draw right lessons and gain informed solutions for enduring peace and prosperity in the region and further enhance India’s engagement. This edition’s articles examine geopolitical dimensions, economic ties and other aspects of India's links with West Asia.