The twenty-first century being the century of reformations, developments, opportunities, technological advancements and aspirations, is surrounded by challenges like cyber threats, warfare, poverty, terrorism, climate change with adverse effects, which require cooperation on multilateral front.
In current scenario of geopolitical developments, two nations waging war against each other pose a great threat and formidable situation for entire world and pose question on credibility of International Organisation to terminate acts stimulating conditions in favour of war. It has been over three months that Russia-Ukraine war is going on with no end near. Talks are going around of new Cold War dragging into “Old world” of arms race, espionage, rivalries - with examples like U.S. approving 13.6 billion $ aid for Ukraine. Germany buying F35 fighters and planning to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence. The debates around deterrence, diplomacy and intensification of bloc politics have resurfaced. While war between Russia and Ukraine is disrupting stable geopolitical world order, this has created pitch for robust diplomatic dialogues, which nations like India has been stressing upon in United Nations while choosing to remain to abstain on resolutions on table of United Nations General Assembly.
India has gained a prominent position in international arena post geopolitical crisis during Covid-19 pandemic through its vaccine diplomacy as well as its growth in every sector: trade, domestic developments, its project of “Atmanirbharta” in defence, local production etc. leading India to gain status of “important nation” across the world. India chose to desist to take sides either of Western nations or Russia, rather India appealed to both sides to resolve issues through diplomatic dialogues and bring a solution to crisis during voting on resolution by US against Russia in U.N. Security Council. India’s position is best to its strategic national interests, but sharpened image of India on international stage has made India’s stand important. India amid war crisis has chosen to adhere to its non-alignment policy that has helped India to secure its national interests. India’s policy propagates non-alignment and adherence to principle of “Peaceful solution to all international conflicts in conformity with U.N charter”.
The point to analyse is why India has been falling back on “abstains”, because that is to its best strategic national interests, as it keeps India away from leaning towards any one side that can hamper its relations on other side. India’s neutrality or “tightrope balancing” amidst navigating great power interests is rooted in “Realpolitik” aligned with its priorities to evacuate its own 20000 citizens in Ukraine safely as well as to secure its strategic interests - India needed security assurances from both sides for its “Operation Ganga” and at same time, 60 per cent of India’s Defence requirements are met by Russia plus Moscow’s unparallel support at United Nation Security Council on issues of Kashmir & terrorism do not allow India to take a complete “black & white” stance during U.N. resolutions. India continues to exercise its “strategic autonomy”, given India’s hostile neighbourhood consisting of a terror state, Pakistan and expansionist China - both nuclear armed neighbours. India has been witnessing challenging situations from both its neighbours: Pakistan and China, therefore Defence and security are important aspects for India. Hence, India needs to strengthen its ties with its potential allies and Russia has helped India in its security and economic development. India’s relations with Russia are strong in terms of trade, culture and Defence. Multiple flagship project between India and Russia in Defence sector like developments of aircraft, missiles and tanks has helped bilateral relations to foster. Russia has been time and tested ally to India, Russia supported India when special status to Kashmir was revoked and also recognised India as Nuclear technologically advanced nation.
China’s factor has influenced geopolitics as well as geo-economics across the globe. United States and China relations have gained traction over trade issues, China suppressing human rights made U.S. propel its relations with India as a strategic partner in Asia. India’s relations with West: U.S., EU are fostered through trade activities that amount to $ 218 billion. India and U.S. both see China as rival in geopolitics. India has assertively convinced Western powers how Pakistan nurtures terrorists in its backyard. This has proved to be impetus for India - U.S. relations to grow strong, with its alliance in Indo - Pacific: Quad, 2+2 dialogues and U.S. granting special status to India for Defence assistance. This has made India a strategic and important partner for Russia as well as United States, but India has to keep balance between both nations. This is seen in Ukraine-Russia crisis.
The implications for global world order are yet to be seen. The blow to globalisation and interdependence has been deep and structures of existing “international order” are collapsing further with U.N. again demonstrating its impotency to establish peace. However certain takeaways from the crisis can improve our outlook towards any such future crises and lead to better preparedness, for India, Asia and whole world. Key takeaways for India in this scenario include Swift diplomacy, pragmatism and professionalism in diplomacy, “de-Russification of armed forces” along with genuine “indigenisation and long term vision of India’s defence technological and industrial base”. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has presented susceptibility of depending upon another nation for military equipment. India is going in this direction with diversification of its defence imports involving new partners like U.S., Israel, France etc. India needs to foster its ties with strong and potential allies across the globe and work with them on factors like resources, technology, capital. India has advanced its developments through projects like “Atmanirbhar Bharat”, through which it is developing tank engines, sensors, radars, helicopters, missiles, tanks to curtail India’s dependency on foreign defence products.
India has significantly survived through, by aligning to its non-alignment policy thereby achieving its national interests and securing its strategic autonomy. In ongoing Russia-Ukraine war crisis India stressed upon “diplomatic dialogue” tool to bring in solutions and has cleverly eluded itself from taking sides of any of the parties. This position of India has its vested interests with both Russia as well as Western nations, as non-alignment policy has helped India to secure its national interests. India’s security interests and foreign policy have common arena to formulate and shape relations with nations across the globe, especially when it is concerned to work with superpowers. India has managed well to balance its relations with U.S, and Russia though the latter two have differences of opinions for each other. India has to focus to achieve its developmental goals and uplift its strategic autonomy and therefore it is necessary for India to stick to its policies, strengthen itself and work with nations maintaining a balance. Non-alignment policy has proved to be one that can help achieve India its strategic interest and thereby evolve as nation with strategic power.
India has a history of staying away from issues concerning big powers. Although nature of global politics has changed drastically between times of Pandit Nehru and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ties between India and Russia (erstwhile USSR) have remained steadfast. At heart of this friendship is defence cooperation. Russia has supported India on its claim over permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council and membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Therefore, India’s abstention reflects it taking sides not for anyone but itself. India neither gave diplomatic or militaristic support to Ukraine nor openly spoke about Russia’s use of violence against civilians. India’s call was according to what seemed in nation’s best interest and is also critical to India’s global position as it may help in not letting western world get too offended by India’s stand on Russia-Ukraine crisis. In a letter he wrote to the Indian ambassador in Cairo in 1956, in context of Suez crisis, Pandit Nehru said, “True wisdom consists in knowing how far we can go, to profit by the circumstances and to create a feeling of generosity which again results in a change in one’s own favour”.
This perhaps best explains India’s strategic choices at the time and helps chart trajectory for what kind of an approach the current regime can potentially deploy in context of Russia-Ukraine crisis. The war has created severe economic challenges for India but while working on her strengths India can contribute in her as well as global growth. Every crisis brings an opportunity. India can create her own strong identity and space. The national and strategic interest of an emerging power like India needs a stable multipolar world. India has supported multipolarity. “Atmanirbhar” is name of the game in geopolitics and Kautilya’s wisdom of Mandala Theory should not be overlooked.
Articles in this edition of the Journal examine various dimensions of Diplomacy and Security related issues.
