Editorial: India at 75 - Middle Power or Great Power?

Standing in front of the historic Red Fort in Delhi, while addressing the Nation on occasion of the 76th Independence Day on 15th August 2022 Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to transform India into a developed country in the next 25 years. “The way the world is seeing India is changing. There is hope from India and reason is skills of 1.3 billion Indians”, Modi said. “The diversity of India is our strength. Being mother of democracy gives India inherent power to scale new heights”, Modi said an aspirational society is very precious for any country and in India, people’s aspirations are on the rise. “Aspirations are on the rise in every section of the society. Every citizen wants a change, wants to see it happening in front of their eyes and is not ready to wait anymore”, the prime minister said. People want to progress with speed and they are not ready to “force their coming generations wait for it”, he said. “Be it the Centre, states or local self-governance institutions, each of them will have to address the demands of the aspirational society”, Modi in his speech said, “When dreams are bigger, resolutions are bigger, the efforts are bigger”. Modi said, “In the next 25 years, we have to focus on ‘Panchpran’ or The Five Promises.:

• First Pran – Goal of Developed India

• Second Pran – Remove any trace of colonial mindset

• Third Pran – Take pride in our roots

• Fourth Pran – Unity

• Fifth Pran – Sense of duty among the citizens

First, we will move forward with bigger resolves and resolve of developed India. Second, we will erase all traces of servitude from within and from around us. Third, we will be proud of our legacy. Fourth, we will work on strength of unity, and fifth, to fulfil our duties to citizens of India”.

Modi’s words came as millions celebrated 75 years of Indian independence since the stroke of midnight on 15th August 1947 that ended 200 years of British colonial rule. At the time, India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru said India was on a path of revival and renaissance. “A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new”, Nehru said. “When an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance”. Seventy-five years later, India of today is almost unrecognizable from that of Nehru’s time.

Following independence, India was in chaos. Reeling from partition that killed between 500,000 and 2000,000 people and uprooted estimated 15 million, it was synonymous with poverty. Average life expectancy in the years after British left was just 37 for men and 36 for women. Only 12 % of Indians were literate. India’s GDP was $20 billion. Significant challenges emerged for India from this period. For any country, independence is not a magic formula to solve all its problems. India had the right to decide her own future. Will independence mean progress, a better standard of living for the people, the advance from medievalism to modern life? Or will the stagnation turn into frustration, her good intentions to chaos. Will India become the new hub of Asia or a void that sucks the whole southern shelf into its vortex? The main problem was to establish a balance between the too-apparent diversities and the important elements of unity in this vast and complex country. A successful solution would enable one fifth of the human race to play a worthy role at home and in the world.

Fast forward three-quarters of a century and India's nearly $3 trillion economy is now world's fifth largest and among its fastest growing. The World Bank has promoted India from low-income to middle-income status -- a bracket that denotes gross national income per capita of between $1,036 and $12,535. Since gaining independence, India has built one of the world’s fastest growing economies. According to United Nations, its population will soon surpass China’s as world’s largest. Literacy rates have increased to 74% for men and 65% for women and average life expectancy is now 70 years. Indian diaspora has spread far and wide, studying at international universities and occupying senior roles in some of world's biggest tech companies. Much of this transformation was prompted by “pathbreaking reforms” of 1990s, when then Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao and his Finance Minister Manmohan Singh opened India to foreign investment after an acute debt crisis and soaring inflation forced rethink of socialist Nehru’s model of protectionism and state intervention. The reforms helped turbocharge investment from American, Japanese and Southeast Asian firms in major cities including Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad. India’s broader economic gains as an independent nation shows how it has confounded the skeptics of 75 years ago.

For years after independence, India’s international relations were defined by its policy of non-alignment, Cold War era stance favoured by Nehru that avoided siding with either United States or Soviet Union. That stance did not prove popular with Washington, preventing closer ties and marring Nehru’s debut trip to US in October 1949 to meet President Harry S. Truman. During the 1960s relationship became further strained as India accepted economic and military assistance from the Soviets and this frostiness largely remained until 2000, when President Bill Clinton’s visit to India prompted a reconciliation.

Global power politics is a serious game requiring countries that matter to think and act big. India belongs to this group. Prime Minister Narendra Modi with his enthusiasm for rejuvenating India’s foreign policy injected new dynamism into conduct of India’s external relations. As elected leader of first majority government in three decades, taking advantage of extraordinary mandate, he warmed up to America, recast approach to China and Pakistan, sustained old friendship with Russia, deepened strategic partnership with Japan and Australia, boosted India’s neighbourhood policy, wooed international business leaders and reconnected with Indian diaspora. In reviving India story, Modi brought personal energy to Indian diplomacy. The pragmatism he has brought to bear on Indian diplomacy could turn out to be the most important contribution to Indian diplomacy and if taken to logical conclusion, his determination to make diplomacy the base of India’s economic advancement which can help Delhi build up India’s comprehensive national power, expand its traditional spheres of influence in Indo- Pacific and restore India’s geopolitical momentum which was lost - from nation mired in self -doubt to a responsible power that is in quest for greater strategic influence in global arena.

Since assuming office in 2014, Modi has turned India into a strategic player with a highly effective foreign policy. Modi has done this by shifting New Delhi away from its old strategy of strict non-alignment, paving way for stronger ties with great and middle-sized powers. Under his watch, India has embraced United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy in an effort to balance a rising China and keep the region open and free from coercion. Washington’s need to balance rise of China has led it to court New Delhi as a key partner in the Quad, which also includes Japan and Australia, which is widely perceived as a way of countering China’s growing military and economic might and its increasingly aggressive territorial claims in the Asia Pacific. The breadth and scope of India-US relations have extended exponentially in every field. Yet India is not just a camp follower of US, which Modi proved during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite enormous pressure from US and its NATO allies, India broke rank with Quad by refusing to condemn Russia as the aggressor. Instead, New Delhi did a delicate balancing act, refusing to vote against Russia at UN and opting to remain neutral. India also provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine. At the same time, New Delhi picked up oil at a cheaper rate from Russia and when criticised for doing so pointed to Europe’s dependence on Russia’s oil and gas. India has drawn red lines when it comes to national interest and has unapologetically gone ahead with what suits its people. All major powers do this but developing nations are often browbeaten into following a powerful country for economic or strategic considerations. India has chosen to strike its own path and policy is to engage with every country on points of convergence but not get into alliances giving India freedom to differ on issues which are vital to its self-interest.

Modi totally redefined and restructured Indian diplomacy architecture making it entirely India-centric. He worked on great Indian diaspora spread across the world to generate necessary positive buzz all around which convinced the world at large that something has really changed in India. From a developing economy that faced challenge of even feeding its population until 1960s, India has emerged as 5th largest economy, nuclear weapons state, space and IT power and nation with an overarching world view in 21st century. Times change and time marches on. Yet then it was (as now) a boisterous, colourful, vibrant society moving towards change.

India has been able to assert itself on world stage because of political and diplomatic military capital that has been put in place. Part of India’s growing geopolitical clout is due to its growing military expenditure, which New Delhi has ramped up to counter perceived threats from both China and Pakistan. In 1947, India’s net defence expenditure was just 927 million rupees – about $12 million today’s money. By 2021, its military expenditure was $76.6 billion, according to a report from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute -- making it third highest military spender globally.

India’s foreign policy reveals wide range of India’s ties with countries in South Pacific, Southeast and South Asia, other parts of Asia, Europe, Indian Ocean region, Africa, North America and Latin America. India is leading member of UN, invitee to G7, founding member of BRICS, and pivotal part of G20 now ready to take over as its Chair. India perceives itself as a member of group of nations that control world affairs and has nurtured relations with major powers – US, EU, Germany, France, U.K., Japan, Russia and China. India’s engagement with ASEAN has matured over the decades since the policy to focus on East Asia was launched. From ‘Look East’ policy. India has now moved to ‘Act East’ and beyond in Indo-Pacific theatre. On West Asian front, prospects have improved with establishment of I2U2 (India, Israel, U.S. UAE), due to phenomenal progress in India-UAE, India-Israel and UAE-Israel relations.

Indian foreign policy apparatus has displayed an ability to adjust and respond, to learn from experience and mistakes and reform itself. Whether it is military reform after 1962 or separation of external intelligence after 1965 or creation of new instruments of economic diplomacy after 1991 or emphasis on national technical means after Kargil, India has shown greater ability to adapt to external challenges. We will need much more of this as the world and balance of power around us continues to change rapidly. We still have a long way to go before we can say that we have become a Great Power. India’s G20 Presidency year provides the perfect opportunity and beginning for the next anniversary era.

Articles in this edition of the Journal examine various dimensions of Diplomacy and Security related issues.

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