The Gulf is area of utmost security concern. The hydrocarbon resources of the region have increased the strategic significance of the region. There has been a constant competition among the world powers to position their interest in the region to ensure their energy security. Growing importance of oil in the world economy and other issues like the disputes over continental shelf rights and conflicting territorial claims over Bahrain, Kuwait and many islands gives it a separate sub-region identity. The defeat of Egypt in 1967 war eventually separated the issue of Arab- Israeli conflict as well as the influence of Egypt receded. The British withdrawal and the US decision to relay on Iran and Saudi Arabia under Nixon Doctrine (1969) decisively separated the Gulf from the extended region of West Asia.
In the 20th century, the Gulf resembled a bipolar system with the two competing contemporary powers- the Ottomans and the British. Iran under the Shah played the role of a guarantor of political stability in the region and its Arab Sheikhs which suddenly collapsed with the Iranian Revolution. The alarming threat perception of the Arab Gulf States led to the formation of GCC in May, 1981, based on excessive reliance on US military commitment which has been justified by an exaggerated threat from Iraq and Iran. Their regional ambition and its threats has been the basis of their exclusion from the Gulf security.
The decade of 1990s witnessed significant changes in domestic politics of states of the region which had immense impact on the security perception of all the states in the region with calculated neutrality of Iran in the wake of Kuwait crisis. OIC summit in Tehran and the diplomatic exchanges during the period were showing the shared concerns of all.Before these syndromes could have taken some practical shape, the Iraq war in 2003 pushed the region into a state of security flux.
Over almost three and half decade later, the very context of threat perceptions and the security concerns of these states have undergone considerable change which needs serious appreciation in the light of Qatar blockade crisis, US ̳Maximum Pressure Strategy‘ towards Iran, changing political coalition in Iraq, Iran-Saudi rivalry and the COVID 19 pandemic underway for a genuine security. This paper is a pursuit of understanding of the dynamics of the threat perceptions of Gulf States, their security concerns, regional rivalry, interests and responses of the powers and the regional players like Iran, Turkey and Israel. The paper is also trying to evaluate the security threats, their implications and ramifications in the light of following broad current realities in the region.
Iraq is down and a house in disorder, terrorism and civil war in the whole region of West Asia with inevitable impact in the Gulf and security, the Qatar blockade of quartet Saudi rupturing the traditional dynamics of threat perception of GCC, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman are inclusive in their approach to security including Iraq and Iran, The US strategic policy and presence, increased Turkish military presence in its Doha base under Qatar-Turkish joint military agreement and its implications and interests of Israel in the region are important factor of security perceptions in the Gulf.
The major argument of the paper is based on the regionalist perspective in the post-Cold war international system as domestic dynamics of great powers pull them away from military engagement and strategic competition in the troubled spots of the world. The Gulf fits into a sub- region in security perspective which Barry Buzan explains as a group of statesin a relatively small area whose primary security concerns linked together sufficiently closely that their national security cannot realistically be considered apart from one another. This concept also stresses that the security problems of a certain sub-region like the Gulf only involve the nations in this region and it needs all the nations in this region to join together to solve them.
GCC Crisis and Saudi rivalry with Qatar
The Qatar crisis has suddenly disturbed the tenuous security balance maintained by US with military presence (CENTCOM and US 5th Fleet) and GCC mechanism in the region. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar follows Wahhabism andSaudi Arabia has been the hegemonic leader of the GCC and has viewed Qatar traditionally an extended sphere of its influence.The crux of the 13 demands on Qatar is the severance of its relations with Iran whose regional power ambitions have been at loggerheads with the policies and regional ambitions of Saudi Arabia. But the 9th article of the Charter says that, ―Resolutions of the Supreme Council in substantive matters shall be carried by unanimous approval of the member states participating in the voting, while resolutions on procedural matters shall be carried by majority vote. In response to these conditions Qatar instead restored its relation with Iran by sending its ambassador to Tehran with the specific instructions to strengthen the relations in every arena. Iran opened all its land, air and sea connectivity to the beleaguered nation so that it can tide over its economic hardship in the wake of the blockade. The crisis has tilted the balance of perception in Iran‘s favour in the Gulf.
The creation of ̳Joint Operation Room‘ to coordinate regional response is a welcome cooperative sign for the crisis ridden group. There has been increasing contacts the GCC states with Iran in the wake of the Iran-US confrontation through Qatar and Oman. The region is witnessing a new sense of cooperation during the pandemic. The GCC states of Qatar, UAE and Kuwait have provided assistance to Iran- medical and other materials to help the worst COVID- 19 hit country in the region. Such a trend, though in an extraordinary health emergency, is a symbol of pragmatic realisation of the fact that Gulf as a region needs an inclusive securit system. The head of the WHO praised the UAE and the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, fo a second humanitarian airlift to Iran.
GCC Crisis and the US interests and responses
The US interests and policies have been of paramount importance for the security of this strategic and fragile region in the recent past. The Arab spring produced a new geopolitical scenario and all the regional powers pursued their goals in their own interests and perspectives without visualising the possible outcome. This dangerous scenario and conflictual position among US allies in the region is the cause of the incoherent responses of the Washington which entails dangerous consequences for the security of the region. US policy of ambivalence in Arab Spring and Qatar crisis provided opportunity to the regional players like Iran and Turkey with regional ambitions to play their role and pursue their policies.
Turkish pursuit and its Implications
The crisis pushed Qatar to take unprecedented steps to boost its relations with Turkey and upgrading its military base in Qatar set up in 2014, from100 to 3000 soldiers, first Turkish military base in the Arab world. This has the potential to change the traditional power balance in favour of the emerging Qatar-Iran-Turkish alliance. Turkey and Qatar‘s foreign policies also bore similarities with respect to their independent stances during this period.
US Iran Policy and its Implications
The withdrawal US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the policy of ̳Maximum Pressure‘ has dramatically increased the vulnerability of the region. The subsequent escalation between Iran and US led the region to the brink of war when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shot down an intruding US drone into the Iranian air space near Kouh-e Mobarak as per their claims while the US officials contradicted the claim that it occurred in international airspace. In response President Trump approved a military strike against Iran on certain targets like radar and missile batteries. The operation was underway with war planes and ships attack ready but it was called off before the strike could begin...
ARAMCO Attack and the Threat Perception
The Houthi missile attack on the Saudi ARAMCO sites allegedly in connivance with Iranian strategic and logistical support pushed the region once again towards a possible hot conflict. Iran‘s Foreign Minister refuted the claim and called it a strategy of ̳Maximum Deceit‘ with the failure of the policy of ̳Maximum Pressure‘ and instead suggested for talk putting aside futile blame game. Saudi Arabia alleged the Iranian hand as their investigation indicated that weapon used in the attack were Iranian and a demanded an investigation by the United Nation experts. The Saudi Foreign Ministry hailed the UN Report on the attack and claimed that it ―leaves no doubt for the international community about Iran‘s hostile intentions towards the Kingdom in particular, the Arab region and the wider world in general. Thus Saudi-Iran rivalry has assumed very dangerous pattern in the recent years and months and the security of the Gulf needs a wholesome approach.
US-Saudi Relations
In the recent month, the Saudi-US came under severe strain over their divergence of interests over oil price war which affected the US oil companies. President Trump asked the kingdom to fix the issue or he would be powerless to stop the US legislature from making the US troops withdraw from the Kingdom. Besides, Saudi Arabia also appeared in the April,2020 Special 301 Report of Intellectual Property challenges in specific trading partner markets. The United States Trade representative (USTR) planned to conduct an Out-of-Cycle Review of the Kingdom focusing on its protection against commercial use, as well as the unauthorised disclosure of undisclosed test or other data generated to obtain marketing approval for pharmaceutical products.
The drifting away of the trust and commitment between the two allies has come to public doubt with the US announcement of removing of Patriot anti-missile system and reduction in other military capabilities. This large-scale military build-up has been put in place in the aftermath of ARAMCO attack as an alliance of solidarity to counter Iranian threat. These developments are clear manifestations of limits of the strategic alliance and therefore it must have forced the kingdom to reassess its threat perceptions and durable security framework based on its own national interests and regional exigencies. Such evolving patterns have profound implications for the Gulf security.
Chinese Factor
The expansion of Chinese investment and influence has been adding a new factor in the security of the region. Announcement of the Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif of a comprehensive strategic partnership with China on 6th July, 2020 could create a new US-China competition and a potent challenge to the US position and dominance in the region for decades. The agreement seems to indicate a strategic military ties and $400 billion investment in Iranian infrastructure- railroads, ports, 5G network and telecommunications. Iran can become a hub of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project and China could establish free trade zones in such strategic location as Maku in the northwest, Abadan near Iraq and Qashem Island.
The impending agreement had its origin in the Joint Statement on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Islamic Republic pf Iran and People Republic of China during the visit of the President Xi Xinping in 2016 which proposed for a major agreement in all areas of bilateral relations and regional and international issue, . It also underscores and specifies the roadmap of developing and deepening ties between the two in ―Political‖, ―Executive Cooperation‖, ―Human and Cultural‖, Judiciary, Security and Defence‖ and ―Regional and International domain. Such Chinese engagement in eastern flank of the Gulf which could lead to dovetailing Pakistani port of Gwadar to Chabahar and Bander Jask overlooking the strategic strait of Hurmuz has potential to change dramatically the security balance.
As the US-China rivalry is spiraling, it can assume extreme geopolitical contest in the Gulf and widen the fault line between the Saudi-Israel team with US support and the Russian- Iranian axis with Chinese backing. The tension in the Gulf is getting renewed with the US and allies pushing for extension of sanctions on Iran due to lapse on 18th October, 2020. The GC Secretary General, Dr.Nayef F. M. Alhajraf, sent a letter to the UN Security Council asking fo the extension of the sanctions under UNSC resolution 2231. He claimed that Iran has not desiste from support to the terrorist and sectarian organization in the region. Therefore, it is imperative t keep the sanctions in place for peace and security in the region.
Iraq Disorder and the Gulf Security
Iraq presents an inexorable security challenge to the region in last two decades in particular. Iran has gained a strong foothold in the country and US is in the withdrawal mode and extremist elements of different hues are keeping the dangerous disorder in an unabated pattern. On 11th June, 2020, Strategic Dialogue discussion was held between the Iraqi and US delegations led by Senior Under Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iraq, Abdul-Karim Hashim Mostafa and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US, David Hale respectively in accordance with 2008 Strategic Dialogue Framework Agreement for a Relationship of Friendship and Cooperation between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq. It emphasised the political commitment and security partnership. It recognized reduction in security threat and therefore gradual reduction of US forces from the country in a phased manner as per due consultations between the two based on their mutual interests. The US has agreed for reduction of troops in light of elimination of ISIS threat but seems to be not sure of the peace and stability in the country in near future. That perhaps is the reason that the dialogue has not been able to reach a timeframe to reduce the US troops in the country.
Israel Factor in Gulf Security
Israel and the GCC States have shared enmity against Iran. Israel views Iran as the most important problem for its security owing to its support to Hamas and Hezbollah. It recognises the nuclear programme of Iran as a threat to its security and therefore is strong critic of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement, 2015 between Iran and the (US, UK, France, Russia, China +Germany) 5+1 powers. The GCC states share with Israel this Iranian factor for their own security in the Gulf.
The Saudi led quartet-blockade is basically based on Qatar relations with Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamist active in the region. Israel shares a common front on all these issues. Tel Aviv is taking it as a positive development as this divide is not due to the traditional factor of Palestine rather because of their concern for radical Islam and related terrorism. The crisis and its broad pattern has been an opportunity for Israel to make cooperation with these countries in its fight against Islamic radicalism and terrorism said then Israeli Defence Minister, Avigdor Lieberman in the Israel parliament in the aftermath of the crisis. It will bring the US involvement back in the region which strengthens the Israeli position as the crisis delegitimizing the Islamist radicalism.
The pattern seems to be in the direction of Israeli cooperation with the Saudi group in the Gulf against Iran and its proxies in the different fronts in West Asia. The Palestine issue which has always been a uniting factor is being pushed to the back seat in this regional geopolitical competition and dynamic security perceptions. This Israel- Arab alliance (Saudi Arabia, UAE & Egypt) will surely spur the position of Israel. It will also be beneficial for Saudi Arabia to scuttle the growing spread of its rival Iran in the region. This may look promising for these countries for the time being but the security and stability of the region of Gulf will receive a severe jolt with increasing involvement of the extra-Gulf powers(Israel, Egypt and Turkey) in the region. This will have a detrimental impact in the security of this sub-region which needs only the littoral states and their cooperation for a genuine security of the region. The pandemic crisis has provided the opportunity to bring all the littoral sates into the Gulf security including Iran. Because the GCC in the present form, fallen discredited and a divided house, has been ̳half Gulf cooperation Council‘ without Iran which covers the entire eastern flank of the Gulf.
The ―Abraham Accord‖ reached between Israel and UAE on 13th August, 2020 is a new dimension and can have numerous implications as Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas of West Bank as envisioned in the Middle East Peace Plan. As per claims of the US and Israeli establishment other Arab countries in the region are on the way to reach a similar accord with Israel. It has huge potential to change the balance of threat perception and security imperative of Arab Gulf States vis a vis Iran.
The Gulf States of Kuwait, Qatar and Oman support an inclusive and sustainable security framework in the region. Constructive involvement of the powers like EU, India and Chinacan develop a durable security mechanism. China can use its influence and relations with to help the mediate among countries in the region for their long term interests. All should work towards a coordination and adjustment of their national interests for the security and the stability of Gulf which would ease and calm the strife and conflicts in West Asia.
The Gulf represents a typical Sub-region where the national securities of all the states of the region are interdependent. Any realistic security framework of structure must include all the littoral states. The Qatari crisis have demonstrated the pursuit of security in the region since the Iranian revolution from GCC mechanism, CENTCOM, policy of Containment, Isolation of Iran, continued sanction regime and the policy of ̳Maximum Pressure‘ has been untenable. In the wake of strategic shift of US from the region to Indo-pacific , other powers- EU, India and China along-with US need to bring the parties to the table with due consideration all the sovereign dignity and their genuine grievances in a pragmatic manner. The ongoing escalating tension between Iran and US is very dangerous for peace and security of one and all in the region.
Given the competing interests and pursuits of the regional powers and their alliances with the major world powers that have their own geopolitical and geo-strategic interests are making the security of the region extremely intractable. There is a need of pragmatic evaluation of interests of all stake holders and actors to build a prudent security framework with widest and densest possible consultations. A genuine multilateral approach with an energetic and coordinated regional and international effort is needed to calm the prolong crisis stage and establish a sustainable peace in the region. A Collective Multilateral Security for the region based on cooperation of all that includes all the Gulf States, USA, Russia, China, the EU and India and other stakeholders as observers or associated members hold the potential for a desired outcome.
