“If you know your adversary and enemy; and if you can deter them, you can live in peace for 100 years”. Above directive is given in Chanakya Niti. Unfortunately, in India, since we are over influenced by Western philosophy of Governance, war, and conflict we ignore our own teaching. Pakistan’s Government, Armed forces, ISI, Jihadist do not follow western concepts of war. After their defeat in war against India in 1965 and 1971, they have switched over to “Jihadi concepts of war” and have evolved a philosophy, and strategy of “Bleed India by Thousand Cuts”. Terrorism in J&K, terrorism in other parts of India, emergence of SIMI, HUJI and other terrorist and fundamentalist organisations, as well as their spread of influence and activities is part of Jihadi concepts of war. Kargil war, attack on India’s Parliament, attack on Mumbai on 26/11, attack on Pathankot Air Base are all part of Jihadi concepts of war and bleed India by thousand cuts.
Same holds good for China too. Chinese do not follow the philosophy of western concepts of war. The Chinese philosophy of war is based on Chinese traditional concepts, Mao’s thoughts, Peoples War. As the people of the targeted country to fight with the established government and use conventional force in the final phase of the conflict. Insurgency in Nagaland, Manipur since 1952, Insurgency in Tripura, ULFA, BODO insurgency in Assam since 1978 are all part of Chinese concept of People’s War. Naxalism, Maoism in India, conceptualized, instigated, sustained, financed and directed by China using Communist Party of India specially CPI(ML) are all part of Chinese philosophy of war. Chinese army in Laddakh, PLA’s increasing presence and influence in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK), increasing influence of China in Pakistan and Afghanistan are part of Chinese doctrine and philosophy.
Despite often repeated statements by Chinese leadership about relations with Pakistan that friendship between China and Pakistan is higher than Mount Everest, deeper than Arabian Sea and sweeter than Honey, the harsh fact is, that Chinese do not trust Pakistan. Chinese are convinced that Pakistan army, Pakistan Government, ISI, Fundamentalist can never be and should never be trusted. Having learnt from America’s experience in dealing with Pakistan since 2001 (9/11 and attack by America on Afghanistan) and betrayal of trust by Pakistan); where in Pakistan earned billions of dollars from America, and continues to make money even today and get military technology, hardware, aircraft, guns on the pretext of fighting terrorists (who are organized, trained, equipped, motivated, indoctrinated, directed and controlled by Pakistan to fight against Americans in Afghanistan and elsewhere). Both Americans and Chinese are convinced that Pakistan’s government, army, ISI, fundamentalists and Jihadist can never be trusted and depended upon. It is unfortunate that in the bargain peoples of Pakistan, young generation of Pakistan have been suffering and will continue to suffer till they remain under the influence and control of Pakistan army, Jihadist and fundamentalists. It is up to the people of Pakistan specially the youth do decide as to how long they wish to suffer.
Similarly, it is up to the people of India to decide as to how long they wish to suffer from Jihadi philosophy of Pakistan to bleed India by thousand cuts and Chinese philosophy of war and international governance. This seems to be some welcome change in the thinking of Government of India since 2015. Let us hope for the best.
India’s people and the government must understand and accept clearly that “conventional Response to unconventional war” will never work. To fight Terrorism successfully by conventional means and combat force, means and mechanism is to accept defeat in advance. Americans and western nations have not succeeded in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. They will not succeed in Syria and Libya too. Americans will never-never succeed in combating, eliminating terrorism only by using airpower, conventional combat power and mechanism. If the Americans and western powers do not change their philosophy and strategy of combating terrorism, terrorism will continue to spread like cancer. It has already hit America, it will be harming America and America’s interests across the world, forcing the coming American generations to suffer and suffer.
Terrorism must be combated and eliminated by “Counter Terrorism” and “Anti-Terrorism”. Proxy war must be fought and won by Proxy war and proxy means and mechanism. Cross border terrorism cannot be successfully fought only by lighting candles. Cross border terrorism cannot be fought by drawing Laxman Rekha around our forces. Terrorist, fundamentalists and Jihadist do not recognize and respect borders and line of control. There is therefore a need for India to “revisit” the doctrine, philosophy and strategy of combating terrorism and insurgency, proxy war and people’s war. We have suffered enough for 56 years. We have to now decided, should we continue to suffer in future too, accept defeat after defeat, humiliation and destruction for next 50 years? There are some changes since 2015 in the philosophy of National Governance, International Relations, National Defence and National Security. It is hoped that policy formulators, decision makers, Security and intelligence agencies and defence mechanism will understand and accept that “you cannot outsource the war or combat. Every nation must fight its own war. You cannot outsource national defence and national security. No national will fight India’s war, to guard India’s national interest”. Only Incompetent, incapable, inefficient experts and wise people outsource their national security and national defence to someone else. This is a harsh truth.
Need to identify, examine, analyse; the inadequacies, weaknesses (fault lines) of our adversary and enemy
While it is essential to know the strength, source of strength and combat endurance of our enemy and adversary; as per Chanakya Niti, it is more important to know and exploit the weakness, inadequacies, and fault lines of the enemy of adversary.
Both China and Pakistan claim to have deep rooted relationship, strategic alliance, and dependency, there is very little common between china and Pakistan (so is the case between USA and Pakistan), history, culture, sociology, religion, food, fashion and so on. The only meeting point and common interest is Anti India thought process and Anti Indian designs! China has her own limitations as far as international intervention with combat power or combat diplomacy is concern. By exporting terrorism and clandestine mechanism for exporting and proliferating nuclear technology, Pakistan has created a constituency for herself among terrorist, Jihadi, fundamentalist and disruptive elements across the world specially in Middle East and Europe! No power on this earth has been able to detect and prevent the flow of terrorism and nuclear technology originating from Pakistan! Unfortunately, due to extra kindness of policy formulators and policy implementers in India, we allowed China a role much bigger than her shape and size. The membership of Security council of United Nations. Successive leadership in China, have never hesitated in the past nor will hesitate in future, to use all powers against India and more so to protect and further Pakistan’s destructive as well disruptive capacity and capabilities, potential and endurance to destablise the neighbors (Iran, Afghanistan and India) as well as Middle East and Europe. China is using Pakistan as “proxy”. Chinese never realized that destructive capabilities and capacity of Pakistan will hurt China badly. It has now become a reality, the western flank of China is disturbed and unstable. It is bound to break up from China one day. China recognized and accepts Pakistan’s destructive value and hence of late adopted policy of allurement, and appeasement of Pakistan. China has reasonably succeeded by taking out Pakistan from America’s influence and remote control. Magnetic force of China seems to be more powerful than USA to attract Pakistan under China’s influence and control and detach it from USA. Keeping India internally unstable, unsecure and engaged in internal security is the “grand strategy” and “strategic alliance” as well as strategic partnership of Pakistan and China!
China and North Korea have given nuclear technology and the Nuclear Bomb to Pakistan. Pakistan claims officially that nuclear bombs of Pakistan are to be used “Only Against India”. Pakistan claims that there is only one enemy across the world and that is India!! Pakistan’s leadership deliberately called it “Islamic Bomb”, To get financial support from countries of Middle East and North African region, mainly Saudi Arabia, UAE and Libya. Pakistan’s government Army and ISI carefully and conveniently allowed smuggling of Nuclear Technology and proliferation to many countries in the world. I have no hesitation what so ever to state clearly that the same smuggled technology will cause unacceptable harm and destruction to all those countries without any exception, who supported, sustained, financed Pakistan’s nuclear Misadventure. The coming generations of Pakistan will pay a very high price for the misadventure of Pakistan’s Military and political leadership, and fundamentalist and Jihadi guards and guardians of Pakistan. Both China and Saudi Arabia will be subjected to Nuclear Blackmail. Even USA and western world will not remain untouched!
Pakistan has different concept of sovereignty for different countries it is dealing with. Due to India-China boundary dispute and China’s help to insurgents in North East India, Maoists and Naxalites, and China’s capacity, capability for encirclement of India, Pakistan has given “special status” to China. Pakistan has also placed both UAE and Saudi Arabia in “special category”. Pakistan considers America as “Milking cow” with great capacity and endurance to use Pakistan’s Government, Army, ISI, Jihadist and most important of all Pakistan’s territory and infrastructure for furtherance of America’s interests in Afghanistan and beyond in Central Asian Region, guard Western flank of China, create instability in Iran and destabilize Eastern flank of Iran and of course keep Pakistan as a counter to India. Pakistan has been a most trusted partners of USA, against India for decade. There seems to be some change of heart of late. Pakistan will remain useful to USA against China also. America has never appreciated a strong, stable, secured and influential India. It is questionable if America’s national philosophy, Doctrine and strategy to deal with India will change in next two decades. It is not the people of America but the governing mechanism, security system and strategic community which creates obstruction for India. This is a bitter truth. India must evolve a “doctrine and strategy” to deal with emerging situation. I can say with certainly that Pakistan – America’s partner in ‘War on Terrorism’ will soon be punished by America at the western world. India has to be very careful.
China, Saudi Arabia, UAE will continue to use Pakistan in every aspect to degrade America’s influence and presence in Afghanistan and beyond. America has different concept of sovereignty of Pakistan. America’s Armed forces, special force, Air force, CIA, can carry out air attacks, accidental air bombing, drone attacks, carry out raids with in Pakistan as long as the flow of dollars from USA to Pakistan continues along with America’s supplies on the pretext of combating terrorism and protect America’s interests in Afghanistan.
It is high time for India to use our “Soft Power” against hard power of Pakistan, by convincing the young generation of Pakistan about the futility of conflict with India. Pakistan has tried this for over 65 years and can continue to do so for next 650 years. Pakistan has gained nothing except its own destruction and disintegration. How long the rulers of Pakistan intent to destroy the future, peace, stability and progress of coming generations of Pakistan??
The weakness, fault lines of Pakistan are as follows:
- Over influence of religious fundamentalists on the society, especially uneducated youth.
- Over dependence of Pak Army, ISI and the government on Jihadi groups and Terrorists and “deep and strategic asset”.
- Outsourcing Pakistan’s defence and security to Jihadi groups and terrorists.
- Hatred and distrust of people of Pakistan towards Punjabi Muslims (dominant and ruling class of Pakistan).
- Unrest in Sindh, desire for independence.
- Unrest in Baluchistan, desire for independence.
- Unrest in Khyber Pakhtoonwa (NWFP), Desire for independence and amalgamation with Afghanistan.
- Desire for independence in Gilgit and Baltistan region.
- Under development in Pakistan occupied Jammu & Kashmir region (POK).
- Over dependence on China for Pakistan’s defence and security.
- Over dependence on Saudi Arabia, UAE and Middle East for economic survival and energy.
- Over dependence on USA for combat power and support.
- Distrust, mistrust, and hatred towards Pakistan in USA for betrayed of trust and faith placed by USA on Pakistan.
- Smuggled Nuclear technology to other countries which will reach back Pakistan one day and destroy Pakistan. The nuclear scientists and technologists baring few have disappeared in thin air having supplied the technology in a clandestine manner to many countries in Middle East and North Africa.
- Corruption and poverty of Pakistan.
- Unrest among young generation.
- Disrespect and ill treatment of ladies and young girls.
- Arrogance of Jihadi, Terrorist power and over dependence on Jihadi concepts of war.
- There is a strong possibility of further disintegration and dismemberment of Pakistan by western powers. India has to be very careful. Further disintegration of Pakistan will not be in “India’s Long term strategic interests”.
- Religiously indoctrinated youth can turn against Pakistan itself. There are enough indications and incidents in last five years.
The Fault Lines in China are:
- Dissatisfied and uncontrolled youth.
- Indoctrinated young generation, which can be dangerous in the long run.
- Regional imbalance in development and prosperity.
- Poverty in interior part of China.
- Corruption at all levels.
- Learning and attraction towards western life style and culture.
- Tibet and East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which has taken on Chinese government and army in the western part of China (Xinjiang Province) and has established base in Pakistan.
- No neighboring country including North Korea trusts China’s Leadership. China has created more adversaries in neighborhood than friends.
- Smaller nations are now standing up to China’s hegemony.
- China’s vulnerability in South China sea and Pacific Ocean.
- Fear and possibility of internal unrest in different parts of China.
- Over dependence of China on Export oriented economy. Export consumer goods.
- Over dependence of China on Missile and Nuclear technology.
- People’s Liberation Army of China is combat oriented army as yet. People’s war culture still prevails.
- Pro American youth. Loss of faith of young generation in Chinese way of life and philosophy.
- Aging population.
- Suspicion about China’s ambitions in western world and Middle East.
- Possibility of Chinese and Russian partnership against western world and to establish influence in Middle East.
- Disliking, distrust and mistrust about China in Africa continent. Apprehensions of Western world about China’s control over natural resources and minerals in Africa; required to sustain Industrial growth in Western World.
Let us remember the Chanaky’s philosophy (Chanakya Niti):“If you know your enemy and adversary and if you can deter them, only then you can live in peace for 100 years”.
There is an urgent need to evolve India’s vision, philosophy, doctrine and strategy, which will suggest a practical approach to deal with Asymmetric war launched on India. India needs Chanakyas in every aspect of governance, security and defence. Chanakya like Shri P V Narsimha Rao the Prime Minister of India who steered India out of trouble successfully. India needs to be very careful of self-styled, self-propagated, self-appointed analysts, experts who are over influenced by western philosophy and western concepts of governance, thinking, life and culture. There is a need to look at the world from India’s point of view. India’s national interests, stability, peace and prosperity; must remain supreme. Not the philosophy and concepts of sailing India abroad but to project India to the world. There are no runner up or silver Medalist in war, Defence and National Security. Winner is the only winner everyone else are losers!!!
(The above views are of the author only.)