India China Standoff – Expect a long haul of confrontation with China Pakistan Nexus – Part 2

Present Scenario – Xi Jingping’s Objectives

Xi Jinping has decided to teach India a lesson, perhaps a couple of years ago because he has realized that India has the potential and with the present leadership, increasing Indo-US strategic cooperation and as an active member of Quad, would remain a major hurdle in Asia against Xi Jinping’s ambitions of Chinese Century.

Present Status

After five rounds of talks between military Commanders of India and China up to 2nd August, overall ‘de-escalation’ has taken place in Eastern Ladakh, ‘disengagement’ has however not been completed in two of the four friction areas – i.e. Gogra sector and North Bank of Pangong Tso.

Complete disengagement has been achieved at PP15 in Hot Springs & PP14 in Galway valley primarily because India and China differ in meaning and interpretation of de-escalation and disengagement.

On 31st July Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi, Sun Weidong claimed that “Chinese traditional customary boundary line is in accordance with the LAC”. The former Army Chiefs of India have interpreted that the Chinese Ambassador has virtually ended any possible progress in LAC talks between the military Commanders.

What Next?

India’s strategic planners & policymakers should not overlook the following indicators confirms that China has no intention of resolving the current standoff nor returning to pre-April 2020 position.

China is prepared for a prolonged confrontation with India over the LAC.

24th July: PLA along the Southwestern borders – Xinjiang, Tibet, Yunnan, Hainan received orders for preparations for a ‘colder winter militarily’.

27th July: Xi Jinping instructed the PLA to follow CCP’s command to prepare for war. PLA’s exercises in Tibet in 2020 were under conditions of simulated combat.

From April 2020, China has extended the arc of military pressure on India from the initial 1100km in Eastern Ladakh to Nakula in North Sikkim to the entire 4057km of a stretch of LAC.

By instigating Nepal through its Communist party, China has broadened anti-India nexus with Pakistan & Nepal

Chinese covert activities in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka merit deeper scrutiny & surveillance.

China is stretching negotiations into winter, anticipating operational advantages in severe winter.

PLA’s build up in the areas of Pangong Tso, PP14 in Gogra, Finger Areas and Despang plains with preparations for winter stay is part of an overall design.

Pertinent for India to consider a fivefold increase in Chinese media in reporting on Arunachal Pradesh in the first half of 2020.

India’s response suggestions

Part I – Operational-cum-Military.

Our immediate priority should be preparations for worst winter scenarios and unexpected contingencies.

1. 1. Comprehensive surveillance of LAC 24X7. Focus on existing and potential hotspots, including intelligence gathering in high mountains surrounding Ladakh.


2. 2. Integration of satellite imagery, drones, UAVs, human intelligence and deep assets along the LAC and borders.


3. 3. Build up the infrastructure for specialized training of – observers, analysts and researchers to arrive at reasonable conclusions from inputs received from above resources in point 2.


4. 4. The convergence of the China-Pak axis in Turtok area must be prevented at all costs and with all means.


5. 5. Since Ladakh will remain in strategic objective for both India and China, we should not be surprised any more by any moves of China.


6. 6. Infrastructure in forwarding areas must cater for enhanced capacity and capability for operational deployment of combat forces, weapon systems and improved logistics for sustained operations.


7. 7. Develop and improve the economic standards of people living in border areas on a war footing before the next misadventures by China, which will be bigger with deeper objectives.

Part II – National Response

The need of the Hour – A comprehensive “Grand Strategy” with focus on national unity based on national consensus on national policies to convey to the world that the nation is United to face Chinese threat.”Those who are today supporting soft line and compromise based solutions towards China must be made realize that people of India stand by “national interests & national unity” without branding any party as anti-national in the political slugfest. We must draw appropriate lessons from the USA, where both the major political parties stood by the President during the crisis of 9/11 attack on the US soil.

Pending Major Bottlenecks for Improving Bilateral Relations

India China bilateral relations have suffered many setbacks in the last decade-plus. We, as a nation, should not forget the following:

Stalled talks of Joint Working Groups(JWG) in the late 1990s & early 2000, when Chinese refused to show their marked maps with their perception of LAC, which they have been claiming.

Indian Government was ready to exchange marked maps, but the Chinese refused, no progress on this.

Widening Trade deficits from $1Bn in 2003 to $36Bn in 2012 and now $55Bn leading to our over-dependence on China for raw materials would remain a major bottleneck.

China has conveyed several times through their lobbies between 2003 -2011 that India must resolve Kashmir issue with Pakistan by compromise solutions (what it means, has not been spelt out) if Delhi wants to settle LAC issues with Beijing. Yet, to appease Pakistan and China, we almost agreed to demilitarise (DMZ) Siachen in 2007-08 and reduce force levels in Ladakh. Thanks to vehement opposition by MK Narayan (then NSA) this proposal was dropped.

Was reluctance of Govt of India(GOI) for any tough response to Pakistan’s over 17 terrorist attacks in 8 cities between 2006-07 resulting in over 1200 casualties and massacre of 192 innocents in Mumbai on 26 /11/2008 due to Chinese cautioning or ruling Party’s internal dynamics? It merits deep research and deeper probe!

Present Dilemma Before Xi Jinping & CCP

Deteriorating economy and high unemployment?

Immense pressures because of US actions, which could lead to US-China clashes in areas unforeseen so far.

Xi Jinping is in his most dangerous predicament since taking office according to credible observers of Chinese internal dynamics.

Does the United States have a chance that it dared not imagine to force Xi Jinping to step down? Will the US pursue it or not depends on the outcome of Presidential elections in the US.

If multiple pressures mount on Xi Jinping, he could resort to taking military initiatives against neighbours he perceives as unfriendly.

Conclusion

The world is dealing with a leader driven by a sense of his vision/genius and belief that he will shape the Chinese century.

A successful offensive against India will yield Xi Jinping multiple gains such as –.

Xi Jinping is capable of defeating a friend of the USA.

Cautions other nations in the region to fall in line or else their ally from 12000km will not be of much help.

Leads to enormous consolidation of Xi Jinping’s position inside China with far-reaching implications for the dynamics of Indian polity and its stakeholders.

To counter above threats from Xi Jinping’s China on multiple fronts effectively, the people and their leadership of India have to think – “out of box solutions” and implement them from 2020 onwards by involving all the stakeholders in an integrated manner.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).