The events of 2019-20 in India and China have complicated Beijing’s perception of Asia, in shifting its focus from “Asian Century” of Sharing prosperity to the construction of a “Chinese Century”. The phenomenal rise of China in economic and military spheres, under Xi Jinping, has reinforced his “vision of global domination”, even surpassing the USA as per his strategic design. Accordingly, Xi has marshalled all the resources – economic, diplomatic, military, technological and invisible cyber assets, to realize his Strategic objectives – Asian primacy by 2030 and Global domination by 2049. Towards this end, China has adopted assertive policies to grab more territory from its neighbours through soft power initiatives of Belt and Road Initiatives and necessary creeping in by stealth in disputed areas. It’s flagship China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan leading to Gwadar port in Balochistan has to succeed at all costs to control South Asia and eventually dominate the Indian Ocean from straits of Hormuz to Malacca in SE Asia. India’s decision to walk out of China-centric economic order (RCEP) in 2019, its refusal to join Belt & Road initiative in 2018, it is standing up to the misadventures of PLA in Ladakh ( including recent clashes in May- June 2020) and announcing of the first step towards digital dissociation from China underline New Delhi’s political will to resist Xi Jinping’s strategic objectives in Asia. The deepening conflict between India & China is driving both for a long haul of confrontation.
Hard facts of India-China conflict and ground reality we cannot ignore.
1. China has never accepted India as a peer/competitor in Asia.
2. Chinese basic policies against India have been –
3. By Chanakya Niti and corrupting its lobbies in India, China has four political parties, five trade unions, 4,- 5 Students unions and few Universities with leftist ideologies and many leftist liberal academicians on their side. China has focused on India’s resolve to stand up to China.
4. An unsettled border provides China with the strategic leverage to keep India uncertain about its intentions and dilemma about its capabilities.
5. China along with Pakistan is vehemently opposing abrogation of Article 370 and 35A and total integration of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh into India as it poses a direct threat to CPEC in POK and beyond, besides fueling unrest in different parts of Pakistan.
6. By joining QUAD – Japan, Australia and USA, for containing China in the South China Sea, increasing Indo – USA cooperation in all strategic fields and by opposing Belt & Road initiatives in Asia, India has hurt Chinese regional interests.
China’s Objectives in Ladakh 2020 – Present Status.
On the occasion of 70th anniversary of the Communists party regime, Xi Jinping declared on 01 Oct 2019 that China will assert full control over all the areas they have claimed historically. Consequently, PLA has become more assertive along the Chinese borders, obviously with tacit approval from Xi, with rising cases of intrusions.
Government of India should examine with all stakeholders –
1. Why did China undertake these misadventures in Ladakh in Apr-June?
2. Violent reactions by PLA on the night of 15th June, would not have taken place without clearance from Xi Jinping.
3. Chinese knew its intrusions in Galway valley would cause its relationship with India to suffer for a long time to come.
4. Xi is probably prepared for a state of strained relationship for a long time in the hope of “a weaker coalition with some pro-Chinese lobbyists” in the Indian democratic churning.
Some of our experts on China including Shri Jayadev Ranade feel that Chinese objectives in Ladakh were
PLAs moves in Galwan valley & Pangong Tso were clearly aimed at testing India’s resolve, response & capabilities. To my mind, they did not expect such a ferocious reaction by Indian forces and had not catered for alternative contingency plans A, B & C. Casualties on the Chinese side, though not published, could be an eye-opener for CPC and PLA. They will draw their lessons and India should expect something bigger venture in coordination with Pakistani terrorist actions to keep J&K boiling. China had suffered a setback in Doklam in 2017. Now China is faced with a stalemate in Ladakh. It will neither forget Ladakh nor dilute its overall objectives against Jammu & Kashmir and India.
If India is allowed to succeed in its mission in Jammu & Kashmir post-Aug 2019, it will hurt China and Pakistan in their flagship CPEC, affecting China’s objectives in South Asia initially and the Indian Ocean subsequently.
